What to make of Beltre?

[HOOTIE]

Beltre in the 18th round?? I'll take him there in every league. If he drops as far as you predict in next years draft I'll take a chance on him for sure- the man's got the talent, he's just got to unlock it. I predict his second year in Seattle is going to make believers out of you guys.

I know I'm in the minority, but I feel this way as well. I don't think Beltre's the 48 HR beast we saw in 2004 (though we did see the potential for that is there), but I don't think he's his 2005 self either. I'm a believer in this kid, and I don't believe the playing for the contract BS for a second, either. If Beltre's around in Round 18, I'd take him with every team I owned. I wouldn't count on him as your #1 3B heading into 2006, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he cracks the Top 10 there for fantasy purposes in '06.

I'm with ya BIG. Beltre is much better then this year. I believe 30 hrs 110 rbis can happen next year. Beltre is a kid who cares. His problem was adjusting to the new pitchers, and the more breaking ball AL. And those 3b rankings don't mean all those guys will outperm Beltre. Glaus is a 250 hitter, Ensberg had 1 great year, i could go on.

[Half Massed]

I prefer to draft mostly guys you can make a prediction based on more than pure guesses on, however a few hunches can be good. He'd have to fall into the mid-teens for me to grab him though, and I have a feeling there'll always be someone who thinks he's a genius and grabs him way earlier. Maybe I should get him though... The last (and only) time I had him was '04. Of course I dropped him in the beginning of the season, but still...

[wkelly91]

Beltran and Beltre both suffered poor years after changing leagues. Anyone have any stats on 2nd years after changing leagues. Maybe they will bounce back and be bargains?

[hybrid]

Beltran and Beltre both suffered poor years after changing leagues. Anyone have any stats on 2nd years after changing leagues. Maybe they will bounce back and be bargains?

Well Beltran has had more time to adjust, remember he was an Astro for 333 AB's last year. His avg. wasn't very good but he hit for a lot more power and showed much better plate discipline. He pretty much regressed after having 90 games last year in the NL.

IMO the best case scenario for Beltre is something like 20-25 hr's 90 rbi's .275-.280avg. Safeco is harder to hit HR's out of and I doubt he ever has anything close to his 2004 year again.

[BronXBombers51]

I don't do my projections until later in the winter but I can tell you I'm going to have him pegged for better numbers than last year, but certainly much lower than what he did in 2004. Somewhere along the lines of 28-95-.280 are where I'd expect him for the upcoming season. Of course, that is subject to change. It is, after all, only October.

[wrveres]

you all crack me up ..

have you guys not learned how to handle Beltre yet?

You let somebody else draft him and then you trade for him at the beginning of July.

I thought everybody knew that

[George_Foreman]

huh? his best month last year was june. his pre-ASB splits are margianlly better than his post-ASB splits.

when you look at his career numbers, they are a bit better post-ASB: avg. goes from .260 to .280, OPS from .741 to .824, but it seems like you'd have to have a pretty mediocre 3B (or a very deep league) to need to trade for him to get those numbers.


anyhow, i'm holding out faith for beltre. i'm chalking this year up to an "adjustment period", and i'm looking for him to impove next year. that said, i don't think i'll be drafting him too early. late round pick as a potential sleeper sounds about right to me, but i might be willing to reach as high as the 10th round in a 12-team league if i didn't have a good 3B already locked up.

[Pogotheostrich]

you all crack me up ..

have you guys not learned how to handle Beltre yet?

You let somebody else draft him and then you trade for him at the beginning of July.

I thought everybody knew that

Just like Thome and Chavez?

[Yoda]

Beltre is awful. If he gradually improved to his level 04, I can understand why people would still hold out hope for him.

However keep in mind that, his rise to 04 was as quick as his descent to 05. I see zero probability of Beltre even coming close to 04. Ever. He is a .270 hitter with moderate power: 25 HR, 80 RBI type.

Given his age, we may see a spike or two but I wouldn't be surprised if he continues his trend as a disappointment.

[pokerplaya]

Beltre is awful. If he gradually improved to his level 04, I can understand why people would still hold out hope for him.

However keep in mind that, his rise to 04 was as quick as his descent to 05. I see zero probability of Beltre even coming close to 04. Ever. He is a .270 hitter with moderate power: 25 HR, 80 RBI type.

Given his age, we may see a spike or two but I wouldn't be surprised if he continues his trend as a disappointment.

Maybe we're in the minority, but I have to agree here...