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What to make of Beltre?

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What to make of Beltre?

Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:31 pm

I will start this by saying that as a fantasy owner I stayed away from him this year, I just though he was too unpredictable. However, as a Mariner fan, I was hoping he'd have a big year. But the differences between 2004 and 2005 really are startling.

2004: .334/.388/.629, 48 HRs, 121 RBIs, 104 Rs
2005: .255/.303/.413, 19 HRs, 87 RBIs, 69 Rs

I'm not sure what to make of this guy. Can we really say that 2004 was his breakout year, and he's primed to go on to have a great career? He is just 26 years old and was adjusting to a new league after all. Or is he a guy who had one tremendous year, but 2005 is more along the lines of what we should expect? While I didn't think he'd duplicate his 2004 season, I didn't think that .300, 25-35 HRs, and 100 RBIs was unreasonable.

From all I've read, he seems like a good, hard-working kid, and not someone who just doesn't care any more because he got paid. Anyway, I'm just curious how others view this guy, both from a fantasy and real life perspective. Obviously things could change if he gets traded to Philly (per the Wade thread), but assuming he stays with the M's, what do you guys think about Adrian?
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Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Oct 11, 2005 12:51 pm

In addition...

VORP
2004: 89.1 (4th in MLB)
2005: 15.1 (187th in MLB)

RC
2004: 146 (4th in MLB)
2005: 75

RC/27
2004: 9.41
2005: 4.32

Win Shares
2004: 37
2005: 14
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Postby WittyC » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:53 pm

The stat that stood out the most to me from last year to this:

2004: 53/87 BB/K
2005: 38/103 BB/K

Obviously that wasn't the only factor, but it was huge. Clearly he wasn't just lucky in 2004, he was putting the ball in play at a better rate.

I'd say he's still a risk/reward guy, but I wouldn't gamble on making him your starting 3B in 2005. I'd imagine that in most leagues he could be had very late (18th round?) and might be worth a bench spot the same was Giambi was this year.
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Postby Drunken Rhino » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:59 pm

When looking at numbers for Beltre, take 2004 out of the equation... please!

The potential may be there, but I would never draft him, even in the late rounds, but I may trade for him in season when he's cheap and can had for a song. His career numbers indicate he's a much better second half player.
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Postby Simulacrum » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:03 pm

Beltre in the 18th round?? I'll take him there in every league. If he drops as far as you predict in next years draft I'll take a chance on him for sure- the man's got the talent, he's just got to unlock it. I predict his second year in Seattle is going to make believers out of you guys.
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Postby bigh0rt » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:08 pm

_Simulacrum_ wrote:Beltre in the 18th round?? I'll take him there in every league. If he drops as far as you predict in next years draft I'll take a chance on him for sure- the man's got the talent, he's just got to unlock it. I predict his second year in Seattle is going to make believers out of you guys.


I know I'm in the minority, but I feel this way as well. I don't think Beltre's the 48 HR beast we saw in 2004 (though we did see the potential for that is there), but I don't think he's his 2005 self either. I'm a believer in this kid, and I don't believe the playing for the contract BS for a second, either. If Beltre's around in Round 18, I'd take him with every team I owned. I wouldn't count on him as your #1 3B heading into 2006, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he cracks the Top 10 there for fantasy purposes in '06.
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Postby WittyC » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:25 pm

_Simulacrum_ wrote:Beltre in the 18th round?? I'll take him there in every league. If he drops as far as you predict in next years draft I'll take a chance on him for sure- the man's got the talent, he's just got to unlock it. I predict his second year in Seattle is going to make believers out of you guys.


Think about how many 3B'ers are ranked in front him...

ARod
MCab
Wright
ARam
Chavez
Chipper
Ensberg
Huff
Blalock
Glaus
Tracy (borderline)
Atkins (borderline)

I'd be very surprised if any of these guys were on the board when he gets drafted (except, of course, Tracy and Atkins). The top 10, though, will all go before him. In a standard 12-team league, that will leave two owners waiting to jump on a sleeper pick, which is about all that Beltre can be considered right now. Maybe someone will swoop him in the 13-14th as a Util, but I'd be damn surprised.
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Postby pokerplaya » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:31 pm

Of course I'd take him in the 18th round. Everyone should. A top 10 third baseman? Sure. I could see that. However, this year he was way overvalued and I didn't touch him in any of my leagues where he was drafted in the late first or second rounds. I have him in exactly one league, where he dropped to the 5th round and I'm kicking myself for that. Next year, if he is around anywhere from the 14th round upwards, I'd take the chance. Fact is, he likely won't. I see him gone before the 10th in most leagues, and I won't touch him there.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:15 pm

Beltre certainly has the tools as we saw in 04. However, his 05 is too much like the other 6 seasons he put together for me to believe that he will ever return to his 04 form.

I think there is a pretty decent chance that he will improve in 06 but I wouldn't bet on it. Even if he falls to 18th round, I would personally take a pass on him after what I went through with him this season.
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Postby RynMan » Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:54 pm

Beltre is such an interesting case. The fact is that if I have to spend hours tossing up whether to gamble on him or not, it's probably not worth it, and a better decision would be to take someone I have confidence in.
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