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Discussion: Overranked in '06?

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Postby Music2004Man » Sun Oct 23, 2005 2:10 pm

MrT wrote:The players that may dissapoint are:

Pettitte- I expect him to get injured or generally go back to his old numbers.
Beckett will probably have less supporting offense and less resulting wins.
Randy Johnson - expect the numbers to tumble even worsr than 05.
Cliff Floyd- he can't possibly repeat.
IRod - the decline will continue.
Endsberg - flip a coin 2005 numbers or back to 2004.
Beltran - owners will overpay again in 2006. He just is not that good.
Edmonds -2006 will be the year he losses it.


I think that Beltran will rebound next year. I'm not saying that he will go 40/40 but I think he could hit 25 HR's and steal 30 bases. I would love to see furcal batting in front of him instead of Reyes so his Rbi's could be fairly respectable.
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Postby brandnew » Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:35 pm

I will laugh my ass off if Omar spends 9+ Mil. a year on Furcal instead trying to acquire a power bat.
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Tue Oct 25, 2005 8:45 pm

cristóbal wrote:
messyjesse1 wrote:Derrek Lee
Dontrelle Willis
Roger Clemens


what's the deal with d lee not getting respect for finally learning how to dominate like he has his whole life. I was 3 years behind him at elk grove h.s. in elk grove california (sacramento area) and i watched him absolutely dominate. sometimes it takes people a bit longer than others to figure it out, and he was on the SAME level as pujols for the ENTIRE year. you guys could pass on him next year but you will be sorely dissapointed with your decision. i promise you he will repeat those numbers very closely for 3-4 years to come.

i understand beltres situation but he was obviously playing for money and last year for d lee was no contract year.

it is utterly ignorant to say that you are not sold on him or j bay for that matter, these guys have skills and they need to be respected.

oh by the way... wtf were the padres thinking getting rid of them?


the problem with lee is not so much that he won't be able to dominate or put up the numbers he did this year, the problem is that he will be ranked higher than he should because his numbers pre all-star game were amazing.

i have no study on this, but i'm pretty sure most fantasy baseball players know that derek lee was the best hitter in baseball before the ASG, but have no idea that v-mart lead the majors in AVG after the mid summer classic. reason: people care about their teams in the beggining, but lose interest when they see their teams going nowhere. what will they remember when drafting the following year? that lee is amazing and v-mart stinks.

lee's numbers went down considerably in the second half opposed to the first half of the season, but it would be very hard for someone, even lee, to duplicate his performance pre all-star game. his RBIs numbers were cut in half. one can say it was not entirely his fault as in order for lee to get his RBIs, the cubs need to get on base, but the cubbies had .324 OBP in the first half and .323 in the second half.

even with a not so stellar second half of the season, lee's numbers in the first half were so good that his final numbers still put him at the top 5 among hitters in baseball at the end of the season and those final numbers, in most cases than not, will be the stats in which fantasy baseball players will base themselves when drafting next year.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:37 pm

kimchi_chigae wrote:the problem with lee is not so much that he won't be able to dominate or put up the numbers he did this year, the problem is that he will be ranked higher than he should because his numbers pre all-star game were amazing.

i have no study on this, but i'm pretty sure most fantasy baseball players know that derek lee was the best hitter in baseball before the ASG, but have no idea that v-mart lead the majors in AVG after the mid summer classic. reason: people care about their teams in the beggining, but lose interest when they see their teams going nowhere. what will they remember when drafting the following year? that lee is amazing and v-mart stinks.

lee's numbers went down considerably in the second half opposed to the first half of the season


Hey KC. Lee's numbers did go down, but he still never had a month under a 1.000 ops. Lee maintained a 1.000 ops the last 3 months. Martinez will be underrated, but only had 1 1.000 ops month. It will be interesting to see Martinez 2nd half hit %, as i have a feeling it probably was way above his norm, kind of like Lees 1st half.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Tue Oct 25, 2005 11:29 pm

Beltran is very overrated at this point. People will undoubtedly pay round 5 or 6 prices for a guy that may not even put up round 20 numbers again...very poor risk vs reward gamble.

Add in...
Hudson...numbers seem to get worse every year.
Mulder...just not that good.
Mauer...people will pay too much for a C.
Schilling...rep will get him picked way too early
Helton...no roids=no power
Thome...see Helton only with more injuries
Beltre...no contract year roids...more of the same
Kearns...Another year...another wate of time
Griffey...come on, he can't saty healthy til Sept again
Nick Johnson...has never stayed healthy for more than a few months at a time...why should he change now?
Willis...do you really believe?
Kenny Rogers...LMAO
Prior...Will again go top 5 rounds and pull a Kerry Wood on his owners.
Beckett...how many blisters can one man get?
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:20 am

TheYanks04 wrote:Prior...Will again go top 5 rounds and pull a Kerry Wood on his owners.


Wood has had his arm rebuilt. I don't see the connection with Prior. Prior has had 2 freak injuries (collision at 2b), and a (line drive) off his arm. Both could happen to any pitcher, and really have nothing to do with Priors health. I see no reason Prior won't go 200+ innings.
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Postby Morrison8312 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:17 am

brandnew wrote:Turnbow? I think people are going to be overlooking him, and I'll gladly take him in the 10th-11th... he's got sick stuff, a very good young team, and great numbers to back it up.


Congrats for stealing him on me :-b

theyanks04 wrote:Nick Johnson...has never stayed healthy for more than a few months at a time...why should he change now?


I've never seen him "overrated." Ever since he left NY it's been injury after injury. Even if he played 150 games a year I don't think he's a Top 15 first baseman.

theyanks04 wrote:Schilling...rep will get him picked way too early


I'm a Red Sox fan and I know he doesn't have a 2004 season in him again. I do believe he'll still be a decent starter (provided healthy). Maybe 13 wins, 4.10 ERA, 140 Ks
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Postby Yin_Xu88 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:51 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:Beltran is very overrated at this point. People will undoubtedly pay round 5 or 6 prices for a guy that may not even put up round 20 numbers again...very poor risk vs reward gamble.


what are you talkin about? Even though Beltran was terrible this year, he was ranked 149overall in yahoo. That would be in the 12th round or so. What makes you think that he wont improve next year? Arod sucked his 1st year in NY and he was amazing this year.
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Postby pokerplaya » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:59 pm

Yin_Xu88 wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:Beltran is very overrated at this point. People will undoubtedly pay round 5 or 6 prices for a guy that may not even put up round 20 numbers again...very poor risk vs reward gamble.


what are you talkin about? Even though Beltran was terrible this year, he was ranked 149overall in yahoo. That would be in the 12th round or so. What makes you think that he wont improve next year? Arod sucked his 1st year in NY and he was amazing this year.


I agree with you that Beltran should definitely improve, and that he will put up some decent numbers.

That said, A-Rod's 2004, .286, 36HR's, 106RBI's is far from sucking.
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Postby Yin_Xu88 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 3:06 pm

pokerplaya wrote:I agree with you that Beltran should definitely improve, and that he will put up some decent numbers.

That said, A-Rod's 2004, .286, 36HR's, 106RBI's is far from sucking.


I was just saying that compared to what Arod is capable off , those numbers werent very good.
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