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Discussion: Overranked in '06?

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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:57 am

Billy Wagner - He's coming off a fantastic season, which means I'd have to pay a lot more than I'm willing to for a 34-year old closer who relies on his heat.

Willis, Clemens, Pettitte and Cordero have all been said...

I'm not sure about Turnbow. The 56/42 K/BB in AAA in 2004 does scare me a bit, and although he might be fine, the craziness with closers this year translates to a glut of guys who will be undervalued next year. In other words, there's no reason to take a risk on a guy like Turnbow with an early pick. This logic also applies to most closers who will require an early pick in next year's draft, so I'm not going to list all of them.

Bartolo Colon - The guy has the second-best season of his career at age 32. I'll let someone else take the chance.

Brett Myers - The guy has always had great potential, so I'm not willing to write 2005 off as a fluke just yet. But with a 4.32 Post-ASB ERA, I'll let someone else take the risk.

Mark Buehrle - He's coming off what may end up being a career year. Also, he doesn't K enough (149) to justify taking him as early as he'll be going in most drafts.

AJ Burnett - OK, this one depends on where he ends up. But after playing in the NL in a pitcher-friendly park - and after undoubtedly being hyped up in the offseason - I think there's a good chance that this guy will be overvalued going into next year.

Kevin Millwood - This is a tricky one. On the one hand, his lack of wins might lead him to be undervalued. On the other hand, he had a DIPS of 3.88.

Jarrod Washburn - DIPS: 4.55

Derrek Lee - I'm really not sure what to think about this guy. The chance to get an Albert Pujols with the 7th or 8th pick of the draft is awfully enticing. And if he reverts to his career numbers, you've still got .290, 30-35 HR, and 100+ RBI (unlike Beltre, who's floor was much lower). So I'm honestly not sure what to think about Lee this year.

Cliff Floyd - I'd be shocked if he matches his numbers from 2005. Of course, if he somehow gets traded to the Red Sox in a deal for Manny, that could change everything.

Ken Griffey, Jr. - As much as I like the guy, I see this as a similar situation to JD Drew last year: a talented but injury-plagued player who stays healthy for one year. Like Drew in 2005, I think that it's more likely than not that Griffey will be plagued by injuries in 2006, just like usual.

Brian Giles - I suspect that his name might cause him to go earlier than he should. With 90-15-80-15-.300 in 2005, I really don't see him as anything more than a 3rd or 4th OF.

Paul Konerko - If he ends up out of U.S. Cellular, then his numbers could take a hit. In the past two seasons, 52 of his 81 HR have come at home, and only 29 away.

Brian Roberts - I almost forgot this guy! How silly of me. The splits probably speak for themselves, but the bottom line is that this guy will be going about the same time as Chase Utley (maybe a round later). There's really no choice to be made.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:04 pm

Good list JAYF.
I think Giles value will have a lot to do with where he signs. If he stays in the SD then I wouldn't expect a lot to change from this year. But he could be a monster in St. Louis or Boston.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:05 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:Billy Wagner - He's coming off a fantastic season, which means I'd have to pay a lot more than I'm willing to for a 34-year old closer who relies on his heat.

Willis, Clemens, Pettitte and Cordero have all been said...

I'm not sure about Turnbow. The 56/42 K/BB in AAA in 2004 does scare me a bit, and although he might be fine, the craziness with closers this year translates to a glut of guys who will be undervalued next year. In other words, there's no reason to take a risk on a guy like Turnbow with an early pick. This logic also applies to most closers who will require an early pick in next year's draft, so I'm not going to list all of them.

Bartolo Colon - The guy has the second-best season of his career at age 32. I'll let someone else take the chance.

Brett Myers - The guy has always had great potential, so I'm not willing to write 2005 off as a fluke just yet. But with a 4.32 Post-ASB ERA, I'll let someone else take the risk.

Mark Buehrle - He's coming off what may end up being a career year. Also, he doesn't K enough (149) to justify taking him as early as he'll be going in most drafts.

AJ Burnett - OK, this one depends on where he ends up. But after playing in the NL in a pitcher-friendly park - and after undoubtedly being hyped up in the offseason - I think there's a good chance that this guy will be overvalued going into next year.

Kevin Millwood - This is a tricky one. On the one hand, his lack of wins might lead him to be undervalued. On the other hand, he had a DIPS of 3.88.

Jarrod Washburn - DIPS: 4.55

Derrek Lee - I'm really not sure what to think about this guy. The chance to get an Albert Pujols with the 7th or 8th pick of the draft is awfully enticing. And if he reverts to his career numbers, you've still got .290, 30-35 HR, and 100+ RBI (unlike Beltre, who's floor was much lower). So I'm honestly not sure what to think about Lee this year.

Cliff Floyd - I'd be shocked if he matches his numbers from 2005. Of course, if he somehow gets traded to the Red Sox in a deal for Manny, that could change everything.

Ken Griffey, Jr. - As much as I like the guy, I see this as a similar situation to JD Drew last year: a talented but injury-plagued player who stays healthy for one year. Like Drew in 2005, I think that it's more likely than not that Griffey will be plagued by injuries in 2006, just like usual.

Brian Giles - I suspect that his name might cause him to go earlier than he should. With 90-15-80-15-.300 in 2005, I really don't see him as anything more than a 3rd or 4th OF.

Paul Konerko - If he ends up out of U.S. Cellular, then his numbers could take a hit. In the past two seasons, 52 of his 81 HR have come at home, and only 29 away.

Brian Roberts - I almost forgot this guy! How silly of me. The splits probably speak for themselves, but the bottom line is that this guy will be going about the same time as Chase Utley (maybe a round later). There's really no choice to be made.


I still don't understand why everyone thinks Clemens will tank. This is now the 3rd straight season I am defending him.

I agree with a lot of the guys you mentioned. But I think Konerko will go unnoticed again and put up solid numbers as he's always done.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:50 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:Good list JAYF.
I think Giles value will have a lot to do with where he signs. If he stays in the SD then I wouldn't expect a lot to change from this year. But he could be a monster in St. Louis or Boston.


Great point. Giles is by no means old enough to be considered washed-up, and in a different ballpark, he could put up some great numbers.


Yoda wrote:I still don't understand why everyone thinks Clemens will tank. This is now the 3rd straight season I am defending him.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pit ... lit=0&leag
ue=mlb&season=2005&seasonType=2&sort=DIPSratio&ty
pe=pitch5&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&c
ountry=0&hand=a&pos=all

(You'll have to enter each section of the URL in separately - I broke it up so that the URL didn't widen the screen for the whole thread.)

Anyway, this links to ESPN's rankings of pitchers by DIPS%, which, as far as I can gather, is simply how much bigger the pitcher's DIPS is than his ERA. This is a pretty solid list of starting pitchers who may be overvalued next year. Unsurprisingly, Clemens tops the list, which means he can probably be expected to do considerably worse than he did last year.

So obviously, anyone expecting a repeat of a sub-2 ERA will be disappointed. But most of us knew that already. Clemens' DIPS was still the third-best in baseball, which means that IF he pitches as well as he did last year, THEN he can still be expected to be tremendously valuable.

But as with most of the guys on the list, it's not that I think he's a guaranteed bust - it's just that I'm not willing to take the risk compared to when I'd need to take him. I believe that Clemens will be gone by the end of the third round (except perhaps in early drafts, where retirement is a risk). He's over 40 years old, and he's had some injury problems at the end of the 2005 season. That's not a risk I'm willing to take.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:43 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Yoda wrote:I still don't understand why everyone thinks Clemens will tank. This is now the 3rd straight season I am defending him.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pit ... lit=0&leag
ue=mlb&season=2005&seasonType=2&sort=DIPSratio&ty
pe=pitch5&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&c
ountry=0&hand=a&pos=all

(You'll have to enter each section of the URL in separately - I broke it up so that the URL didn't widen the screen for the whole thread.)

Anyway, this links to ESPN's rankings of pitchers by DIPS%, which, as far as I can gather, is simply how much bigger the pitcher's DIPS is than his ERA. This is a pretty solid list of starting pitchers who may be overvalued next year. Unsurprisingly, Clemens tops the list, which means he can probably be expected to do considerably worse than he did last year.

So obviously, anyone expecting a repeat of a sub-2 ERA will be disappointed. But most of us knew that already. Clemens' DIPS was still the third-best in baseball, which means that IF he pitches as well as he did last year, THEN he can still be expected to be tremendously valuable.

But as with most of the guys on the list, it's not that I think he's a guaranteed bust - it's just that I'm not willing to take the risk compared to when I'd need to take him. I believe that Clemens will be gone by the end of the third round (except perhaps in early drafts, where retirement is a risk). He's over 40 years old, and he's had some injury problems at the end of the 2005 season. That's not a risk I'm willing to take.


It's funny that I had the same debate last season. Clemens didn't even break people's top 10 SP list. Looks like I'll be able to grab him for a reasonable price yet once again. ;-D
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Postby LooseCannon » Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:46 pm

I don't think anyone thinks that Clemens will tank but I don't think that he will live up to the third-fourth round that he is taken in.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:54 pm

LooseCannon wrote:I don't think anyone thinks that Clemens will tank but I don't think that he will live up to the third-fourth round that he is taken in.


He won't make majority of people's top 10 SP list. I guarantee it. He'll be there a lot later than 3-4 round.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:57 pm

JustAnotherYanksFan wrote:
Anyway, this links to ESPN's rankings of pitchers by DIPS%, which, as far as I can gather, is simply how much bigger the pitcher's DIPS is than his ERA. This is a pretty solid list of starting pitchers who may be overvalued next year. Unsurprisingly, Clemens tops the list, which means he can probably be expected to do considerably worse than he did last year.

So obviously, anyone expecting a repeat of a sub-2 ERA will be disappointed. But most of us knew that already. Clemens' DIPS was still the third-best in baseball, which means that IF he pitches as well as he did last year, THEN he can still be expected to be tremendously valuable.

But as with most of the guys on the list, it's not that I think he's a guaranteed bust - it's just that I'm not willing to take the risk compared to when I'd need to take him. I believe that Clemens will be gone by the end of the third round (except perhaps in early drafts, where retirement is a risk). He's over 40 years old, and he's had some injury problems at the end of the 2005 season. That's not a risk I'm willing to take.


You have to be careful with this, though. This stat indicates that Clemens ERA and WHIP will probably be higher next year. But, he had very few wins because of poor run support this year. If you think his run support will be different next year, you'd expect his wins to rise, offsetting the value reduction from the DIPS.
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Postby cordscords » Fri Oct 21, 2005 8:28 am

I'm also going to add Jeff Kent to this list. I think he will still post solid #'s, but not ones that match his ADP.
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Postby lesgrant » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:57 pm

I agree with most but I’d add

Colon – a potential CY and his win totals will tempt many.

and as mentioned

Cordero – no way he gets the opportunity to save 40 much less 50, even though he may be good enough to convert 40 plus again. The same guy who went for Gagne will click ‘add’ for Cordero.

And to the guy who went to HS with Lee, HS isn’t the pros. I went to HS/College with more than one future pro athlete and they all looked like Michael Jordan + Babe Ruth + Walter Payton relative to the rest of us mere mortals. But relative to other gifted athletes, they were average at best.

JJ Arrington in the 4th round 8-o!!! Wow a rookie running behind an undersized line on a losing team. Those must be homers who binged on the Kool-Aid five minutes before the draft.
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