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Discussion: Overranked in '06?

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Postby RAmst23 » Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:06 am

brandnew wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:I hate to say it, as he is probably my favorite player, but...David Wright. Don't get me wrong, the kid is awfully talented, but I hear talk of him being an early 2nd round pick. With the depth at third, I wouldn't go near him there as I see his season about where it was this year: .300 30 100, a great season no doubt, but more along the lines of 4th or 5th round numbers to me.


I agree... he's being overrated a lot IMO.. the 20 SB come into play though, and he's really a 5 cat stud. Problem is he's not a monster in any of the categories.


If he's being thought of as a 2nd rounder, which he generally is, and puts up .300 30 100 100 20 then he's being rated correctly. Yes, 3B is deep next year, but that doesn't mean you don't take the top hitters. Draft the best hitters you can in the first 4 or so rounds, and D Wright is a top hitter, if he indeed does perform at those projected stats.
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Postby brandnew » Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:23 am

I like him in the 3rd-4th. Not early 2nd.
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Postby WittyC » Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:41 am

Here's how I see it...

There are four top-tier 3B'ers for '06, and two will be off the board by the middle of the second round in M-Cab and A-Rod. That leaves Aramis and Wright. I saw Aramis go in a variety of spots last year, but I'd be hard pressed to believe he'll be around in the middle of the third round.

I would value Wright above Aramis (injury risk, no SB's), and would say he's a lock for mid-to-late second round value. Any time around there would make him a solid pick... get him after and I'd say he's a steal.

There is "depth" at 3B in a glut of 25 homer, 80 RBI guys, but Wright's SB's make him extremely valuable, and there's no reason to believe he won't improve his numbers at the age of 23. He should be signifcantly better than the next tier of guys.

Basically, I'm thinking that he's not over or under rated.

Also, my only issue with Bay is that he showed no pension for stealing bases until this year. There's going to be a new coach in Pitt, and we've all seen what a new coach can do to stealing totals (see: Beltran, Carlos). I think his power numbers will stay right on track, but I wouldn't draft him expecting another 20 steal season.
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Postby BritSox » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:06 am

Interesting to see the OP listing Doc as a potential getting burnt candidate: I'd have him on my underranked list. He's an absolute stud, and coming off a freak injury which isn't likely to be repeated, and isn't to his arm.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:28 am

several guys on my overranked lists so far....


andruw
franceour
willis
carpenter
derek lee
brian roberts
all closers
all catchers
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:26 am

It really early for this but just look at anyone who put up numbers way above their career norm. B. Roberts, D. Lee, Andruw, Carp, Petitte, and Garland spring to mind.
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Postby LooseCannon » Mon Oct 10, 2005 10:16 am

Beltran will be taken pretty early, but he'll just be a bust, but not as bad as this year. Also, I think Derrek Lee will be taken too early.
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Postby go_jays_go » Mon Oct 10, 2005 10:53 am

I agree with Petitte. I don't see that guy repeating.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:30 am

Based on what I have seen around here, I think David Wright is someone I probably won't pursue.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:39 am

I like David Wright to have a good year in 06, but not at the possible risk in round 3 or earlier. I would think twice in round 4. From rounds 5-on, he would be on my team without hesitation. What round seems to be a good round for Roberts next year? My first guess would be that he would be taken in the 6-7th in most drafts.
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