pokerplaya wrote:I hate to say it, as he is probably my favorite player, but...David Wright. Don't get me wrong, the kid is awfully talented, but I hear talk of him being an early 2nd round pick. With the depth at third, I wouldn't go near him there as I see his season about where it was this year: .300 30 100, a great season no doubt, but more along the lines of 4th or 5th round numbers to me.
I agree... he's being overrated a lot IMO.. the 20 SB come into play though, and he's really a 5 cat stud. Problem is he's not a monster in any of the categories.
If he's being thought of as a 2nd rounder, which he generally is, and puts up .300 30 100 100 20 then he's being rated correctly. Yes, 3B is deep next year, but that doesn't mean you don't take the top hitters. Draft the best hitters you can in the first 4 or so rounds, and D Wright is a top hitter, if he indeed does perform at those projected stats.
...Boston papers now and then suffer a sharp flurry of arithmetic on this score; indeed, for Williams to have distributed all his hits so they did nobody else any good would constitute a feat of placement unparalleled in the annals of selfishness. -Updike
There are four top-tier 3B'ers for '06, and two will be off the board by the middle of the second round in M-Cab and A-Rod. That leaves Aramis and Wright. I saw Aramis go in a variety of spots last year, but I'd be hard pressed to believe he'll be around in the middle of the third round.
I would value Wright above Aramis (injury risk, no SB's), and would say he's a lock for mid-to-late second round value. Any time around there would make him a solid pick... get him after and I'd say he's a steal.
There is "depth" at 3B in a glut of 25 homer, 80 RBI guys, but Wright's SB's make him extremely valuable, and there's no reason to believe he won't improve his numbers at the age of 23. He should be signifcantly better than the next tier of guys.
Basically, I'm thinking that he's not over or under rated.
Also, my only issue with Bay is that he showed no pension for stealing bases until this year. There's going to be a new coach in Pitt, and we've all seen what a new coach can do to stealing totals (see: Beltran, Carlos). I think his power numbers will stay right on track, but I wouldn't draft him expecting another 20 steal season.
Interesting to see the OP listing Doc as a potential getting burnt candidate: I'd have him on my underranked list. He's an absolute stud, and coming off a freak injury which isn't likely to be repeated, and isn't to his arm.
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I like David Wright to have a good year in 06, but not at the possible risk in round 3 or earlier. I would think twice in round 4. From rounds 5-on, he would be on my team without hesitation. What round seems to be a good round for Roberts next year? My first guess would be that he would be taken in the 6-7th in most drafts.
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