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Postby superfly » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:12 pm

Ortiz plays 1b which is so deep. While OF is very deep too, it's not quite the same in quality or in depth. You play 3 OF and only 1 1b so just because you filled one OF spot does not mean you could have gotten better value elsewhere since you still need to fill 2 more spots whereas if you get a 1b in the first round, you might have missed out on value in other positions. The second part of the argument is that you can get someone like Dunn, Sexson or Konerko in the 4th round whereas you can't get a comparable OF in the 4th round.
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Postby nuggets » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:26 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote: I mean the 13 sb really shouldn't matter over the season, especially when you can pick that up off hte waiver wire. 32 HR 95 Runs and 108 RBI is some nice second round numbers. I mean those are practically Carlos Lee numbers. Why the sudden drop off for Lee in avg. I am guessing is just change of pitchers but i would likely not even pay a 3rd for Lee (Vlads numbers this year were practically identical to Lee's last year). Ortiz on the other hand is practically a lock for 40+ hr and 125+rbi. Of course depending on Manny or not, but im sure Manny will be traded before people are starting their drafts, if he does get traded... I think you can also rely on 110+ runs and a .300 avg. and .300 is helping that category.

I think you just have to put Ortiz in the top 3.



Wow you are really picking Vlade apart here. I don't understand how you can say he practically has Carlos Lee numbers. I believe what makes Vlade so valuable is that he can bring the entire package. Those 32 HR 95 Runs and 108 RBI were tied to a .317 AVG, not .265. Vlade '05 = Carlos Lee '04 ? :-? Vlade was the 11th best fantasy hitter in standard leagues. Lee was the 23rd most valuable hitter in '04. This does not compute. If what you mean is that Carlos Lee in his prime is as good as Vlade after his shoulder has nearly been ripped off his body, then I'm with you. I expect Vlade to be no worse than a top seven hitter, while Lee could go 80 runs, 25 HR, 90 RBI and .260 AVG easily.


Ortiz without Manny is not the same player and a poor risk at #3 if with out him, IMO.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:28 pm

When your in the first round you dont think about position scarcity unless your grabbing Alfonso Soriano. Most people just pick best available no matter what position for hte first 2 rounds. I really dont realize how you think a Konerko is comparable to Ortiz. 48 less rbi... 21 less runs... 7 less hr... 1 less sb... .17 less avg. Thats pretty much the same for dunn except its a .53 less avg. That is not even close. Comparable Vlad stats for OFers in the 4th round? Matsui, C Lee, Dunn is much closer to Vlad numbers then he is Ortiz etc. This is likely because of an off year for Vlad, but i am merely trying to raise peoples awareness of the fact that the TOP 3 isnt a lock anymore.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:32 pm

nuggets wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote: I mean the 13 sb really shouldn't matter over the season, especially when you can pick that up off hte waiver wire. 32 HR 95 Runs and 108 RBI is some nice second round numbers. I mean those are practically Carlos Lee numbers. Why the sudden drop off for Lee in avg. I am guessing is just change of pitchers but i would likely not even pay a 3rd for Lee (Vlads numbers this year were practically identical to Lee's last year). Ortiz on the other hand is practically a lock for 40+ hr and 125+rbi. Of course depending on Manny or not, but im sure Manny will be traded before people are starting their drafts, if he does get traded... I think you can also rely on 110+ runs and a .300 avg. and .300 is helping that category.

I think you just have to put Ortiz in the top 3.



Wow you are really picking Vlade apart here. I don't understand how you can say he practically has Carlos Lee numbers. I believe what makes Vlade so valuable is that he can bring the entire package. Those 32 HR 95 Runs and 108 RBI were tied to a .317 AVG, not .265. Vlade '05 = Carlos Lee '04 ? :-? Vlade was the 11th best fantasy hitter in standard leagues. Lee was the 23rd most valuable hitter in '04. This does not compute. If what you mean is that Carlos Lee in his prime is as good as Vlade after his shoulder has nearly been ripped off his body, then I'm with you. I expect Vlade to be no worse than a top seven hitter, while Lee could go 80 runs, 25 HR, 90 RBI and .260 AVG easily.


Ortiz without Manny is not the same player and a poor risk at #3 if with out him, IMO.


Wait this has to be total BS. When comparing players youd rather compare them to how they do against the field then H2H. You know different years equal a different number of good hitters or pitchers. It is just stupid to compare them against the field. Why not just Head to Head and look at it.

Lee (04)

103 Runs - 31 HR - 99 RBI - 11 SB - .305

I agree they are not Vladdy numbers but they are kinda close. I already said that this is all assuming Boston stays relatively the same, if Manny gets traded or they lose key players to Free Agency then its a whole new ball game.
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Postby nuggets » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:43 pm

BritSox wrote:I don't see why we can just say 'oh vlad was great apart from when he was injured' when he's got a recurring injury that's been a problem since he was with the Expos. I think he's likely to have a couple of DL weeks most seasons.

I think I'd still take Vlad 3rd... but it's not nailed on.


What happened to Vlade this year would've put most players out for much longer. Do you remember the slide and all the talk of him being out for the season?
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Postby nuggets » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:55 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:I agree they are not Vladdy numbers but they are kinda close.


:-b :-b :-b

Kinda close, eh?

I think it's fair to include relative value, kind of like OPS+ ;-)
And why not compare them to the rest of the field. Lee could have a 100/35/110/.300 year but it wouldn't matter if the rest of the league improved greatly and Vlade was at 110/45/130/.350.

Lee's career OPS+ is 111, Vlade is at 147. That's huge.

Ok, so if Calos '04 played this year he would have been the 18th best hitter (29th overall).

Correction - Vlade was the 12th best hitter this year.
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Postby AT » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:57 pm

The argument comes down to this for me...

Vlad can hit .330-.340, Ortiz can't.

Vlad can steal 10-15 bags, Ortiz can't.

Ortiz will drive in 140+, Vlad closer to 115+

Ortiz will hit 40+ HR, Vlad probably a few less.

I'll take the Avg and the SB since their more scarce than RBI/HR.

Oh yeah, Ortiz won't have Manny hitting behind him anymore so expect the average to dip a little and the Runs to be down a tad.

Give me Vlad ;-D
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Postby OhMrScottyTrav06 » Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:56 am

Vlad by a long shot... he will hit 40+ hr next season and drive in 125 runs along with 15 steals, 110 runs, .340 AVG... don't tell me you're gonna pass on that for Ortiz when Damon and Manny leave?

Vlad can also hit from his nose to his toes, can't pitch around him :-D
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Postby AT » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:16 am

OhMrScottyTrav06 wrote:Vlad by a long shot... he will hit 40+ hr next season and drive in 125 runs along with 15 steals, 110 runs, .340 AVG... don't tell me you're gonna pass on that for Ortiz when Damon and Manny leave?

Vlad can also hit from his nose to his toes, can't pitch around him :-D


You guys are going down tonight :-D

I already have my ALCS tickets ;-D
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Postby LooseCannon » Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:57 pm

I think:


Pujols
A-Rod



and well I wouldn;t want third pick, but I'd take Manny (I hate Red Sox, but the people in my league are Manny Lovers whom I could easily rip off ofr Manny)
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