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Postby warrick95 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 12:55 am

The_Met_Threat wrote:I agree Vlad is great, but noone has talked about his season. It definately was not top 3 material. I mean the 13 sb really shouldn't matter over the season, especially when you can pick that up off hte waiver wire. 32 HR 95 Runs and 108 RBI is some nice second round numbers. I mean those are practically Carlos Lee numbers. Why the sudden drop off for Lee in avg. I am guessing is just change of pitchers but i would likely not even pay a 3rd for Lee (Vlads numbers this year were practically identical to Lee's last year). Ortiz on the other hand is practically a lock for 40+ hr and 125+rbi. Of course depending on Manny or not, but im sure Manny will be traded before people are starting their drafts, if he does get traded... I think you can also rely on 110+ runs and a .300 avg. and .300 is helping that category.

I think you just have to put Ortiz in the top 3.


A fifty or so point differential in average is fairly significant, don't you think (Lee vs. Vlad this year)?

Many people went into this season having trouble buying Carlos Lee because of his future batting average numbers. His last two seasons WERE .291 and .305, but he was a ~.260s hitter before that. Plus, he's leaving a great hitters' park, although Miller isn't bad itself, and was going to be surrounded by an inferior lineup. But the key for me was that I just didn't trust him. He's certainly not on the level of hitters as Vlad is.

It would still be A-Rod, Pujols, Vlad. Vlad definitely had a little bit of a down year this season and will get his average back near .330 next season. In addition, I really do think that average is a harder position to make up ground (in Roto 5X5's) than cumulative stats such as home runs (stolen bases are tough, however). I, too, have Ortiz in the Cabrera, Teixeira class. I want to see just what his ceiling is...Vlad however, is already there for certain.
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Postby daullaz » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:05 am

Iconoclastic wrote:Uh, what makes you think Ortiz won't be the one to get a freak injury instead of Vlad next year? Look at Vlad's numbers from last year and that's what you should expect for next year.

And since when did ONE season make a guy a top 3 pick? Vlad's been a top 3 player for years, David just one. I like Ortiz a lot but I would consider him to be in the Teix and Miggy class.


Ortiz and Teixiera had very comparable stats, and I see them and Miggy in the same group as well, but that could be mid-first round. A.Rod and Pujols are locks for the top 2 spots, but after that, who knows? Soriano and Guerrero should still up there, and I think Santana is a first-rounder with another great 2nd half.

That's eight, and the rest of the first-rounders will come down to personal preference. Bobby Abreu, Mike Young, David Wright, Jay Bay, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Andruw Jones, etc.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Sat Oct 08, 2005 1:14 am

warrick95 wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:I agree Vlad is great, but noone has talked about his season. It definately was not top 3 material. I mean the 13 sb really shouldn't matter over the season, especially when you can pick that up off hte waiver wire. 32 HR 95 Runs and 108 RBI is some nice second round numbers. I mean those are practically Carlos Lee numbers. Why the sudden drop off for Lee in avg. I am guessing is just change of pitchers but i would likely not even pay a 3rd for Lee (Vlads numbers this year were practically identical to Lee's last year). Ortiz on the other hand is practically a lock for 40+ hr and 125+rbi. Of course depending on Manny or not, but im sure Manny will be traded before people are starting their drafts, if he does get traded... I think you can also rely on 110+ runs and a .300 avg. and .300 is helping that category.

I think you just have to put Ortiz in the top 3.


A fifty or so point differential in average is fairly significant, don't you think (Lee vs. Vlad this year)?

Many people went into this season having trouble buying Carlos Lee because of his future batting average numbers. His last two seasons WERE .291 and .305, but he was a ~.260s hitter before that.Plus, he's leaving a great hitters' park, although Miller isn't bad itself, and was going to be surrounded by an inferior lineup. But the key for me was that I just didn't trust him. He's certainly not on the level of hitters as Vlad is.

It would still be A-Rod, Pujols, Vlad. Vlad definitely had a little bit of a down year this season and will get his average back near .330 next season. In addition, I really do think that average is a harder position to make up ground (in Roto 5X5's) than cumulative stats such as home runs (stolen bases are tough, however). I, too, have Ortiz in the Cabrera, Teixeira class. I want to see just what his ceiling is...Vlad however, is already there for certain.


Let's remember that Vlad only had 520 abs in an offense that's awful. That's 80 less abs then the year before. Ortiz also had over 600 abs too. Not to knock ortiz or anything, but Vlad would've had some sick numbers if had the proper abs. Next year the team should be much better with kotchman, rivera, and mcpherson around. Moving on, Lee's career BA is .284 and if he hits around that next season with that lineup he could have 130 rbis.
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Postby BritSox » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:56 am

I don't see why we can just say 'oh vlad was great apart from when he was injured' when he's got a recurring injury that's been a problem since he was with the Expos. I think he's likely to have a couple of DL weeks most seasons.

I think I'd still take Vlad 3rd... but it's not nailed on.
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Postby Surfs up » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:26 pm

Did evrybody forget Vlad was hurt for over three weeks? He also had no protection when they had Anderson batting in front of him and anderson also missed several games. I think Vlad would have had a normal Vlad year if he had not missed all that time. I have him and he will be one of my keepers again this year even at $50.00 in my AL only $260.00 keeper 5x5. We can keep 11 so having a guy like Cantu at $3.00 and a few others in that range I can afford to keep him. Hell Manny went for $ 51.00 at the 2005 draft.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Sat Oct 08, 2005 6:56 pm

Ok ill project out Vladdys numbers for 600 at bats this season.

109 Runs - 37 HR - 124 RBI - 15 SB

Those are numbers id be very happy with if i drafted Vladdy third overall.

Ortiz comparison (with projected Vladdy numbers):

(+10 Runs) - (+10 Home Runs) - (+24 RBI) - (-14 sb) - (-.17 avg)

Im sorry to say but that is still in favor of Ortiz. Im lookin at my waiver wire and im finding some guys that hit .300 plus with 14 sb or more. Kennedy, Winn, Holliday, Lofton etc.

In one of my Roto Leagues, the first place team in homeruns and the 5th best team in home runs is seperated by 9 Homeruns. So you have Ortiz instead of Vlad and now your valuted up a total of 4 points. 8-o Not to mention the +24 RBI hell pound on, if i really need help in the other departments like sb and avg, ill pick up a lofton or holliday etc.

Also not only does Vlad have an injury concern that hes had for a long time in his career but he is also more likely to get hurt. Id say that in terms of defensive players, OFers have the highest risk of injury during a game, especially compared to a guy who sits on the bench and plays DH, and is really too fat and slow to try to slide in at home and hurt his arm.
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Postby bronxxbomber » Sat Oct 08, 2005 7:02 pm

Vlad's only been hurt seriously once in his career and that what in 03'. He's played in 154 or more games every season. The only exceptions are his rookie season, 03' and 05' (141 games).
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Sat Oct 08, 2005 8:06 pm

Well i still proved my point of Ortiz still owning Vladdy, even if Vladdy did have 600 at bats this year.
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Postby blankman » Sat Oct 08, 2005 8:51 pm

That's all based on the assumption that Boston's offense will be as good next year. What if Damon leaves? Obviously RBI's are very team dependent and I really don't consider that a stat you can peg guys at. For example, Tejada had 150 last year and 98 this season. Projecting Ortiz's value based on repeating 148 RBI is very risky.

Does he even qualify for 1B in all leagues? He played only 10 games there this season.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:18 pm

If you play Yahoo then yes he does qualify. Also this is all assuming that Manny stays, and what Boston does in the offseason. If Boston does not find another .315 leadoff hitter (if damon leaves) or another Manny which is hard to find then Vladdy is still in the top 3 IMO. If Boston stays relatively the same, i think Ortiz may be bumped in there or at least closer than he is now. A lot of people have him at like #6 or 7.
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