Red Stripe wrote:I thought Dontrelle would choke 2nd half and go on a huge second half slump. Boy was I wrong, I'm still not sold on him.
DK, why did you think Oswalt would bust?
1) His GB to FB ratio had been going down yearly. I figured many more HR in Minute Maid. (His GB/FB spiked up this year, going from 1.46 to 1.41 to 1.35, all the way to 1.19 in 2004 but went back up to 1.45 this year)
2) Average against him had gotten worse every year. (.235, .247, .246 in an injury-shortened year, .260, actually went up again this year to .262)
3) Same with strikeouts (steadily. Per 9, From 9.15 to 8.03 to 7.63 in the injury year to 7.82. They actually went down again this year to 6.85.)
4) and just a gut feeling. He's got a very violent-looking motion and I thought he might wear out down the stretch.
I predicted that this year all the factors would come together and he'd have an ERA hovering a little under 4. Weird thing is, almost all the factors did come into play, and he still had a 2.94.
Just goes to show the power of the ground ball.