Target production for roto - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Target production for roto

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Mar 30, 2006 12:32 pm

I'll have to check the file and see if I saved the points I'm not sure that I did.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby brandnew » Fri Mar 31, 2006 6:57 pm

For some reason, the SBs seem a little high to me... like it'd be hard to get into the top half percentile without having a speed demon that at the same time doesn't produce in the other offensive numbers (a guy like Crawford is an exception to this). Like, if you had Wright, Bay, and Weeks getting you Sbs, you'd be in the bottom half. Is it likely that you'd be able to win with getting such a low point total in one category?

Also, can anyone come up with like a hypothetical realistic team that would win a competitive league according to this research?
Image
brandnew
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 3599
Joined: 8 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The 909!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 31, 2006 7:11 pm

brandnew wrote:For some reason, the SBs seem a little high to me... like it'd be hard to get into the top half percentile without having a speed demon that at the same time doesn't produce in the other offensive numbers (a guy like Crawford is an exception to this). Like, if you had Wright, Bay, and Weeks getting you Sbs, you'd be in the bottom half. Is it likely that you'd be able to win with getting such a low point total in one category?

Also, can anyone come up with like a hypothetical realistic team that would win a competitive league according to this research?


Seems in line with my experience. 1st place winners in my league (16 teams) the last 4 years have had 104, 118, 141, and 134. Certainly teams in a 12 team league should be able to top that.

The lowest point total for the winners in my league have been: 6, 4, 10, 10
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Mar 31, 2006 8:33 pm

Here's two of my teams that projected to over 100 points in a 12 team league (using rotowire's projections):

Team 1:
Johjima Kenji SEA C
Pujols Albert STL 1B
Polanco Placido DET 2B
Chavez Eric OAK 3B
Rollins Jimmy PHI SS
Pierre Juan CHI-N OF
Holliday Matt COL OF
Bradley Milton OAK OF
Shelton Chris DET 1B
Kinsler Ian TEX 2B
Granderson Curtis DET OF

Peavy Jake SD SP
Sheets Ben MIL SP
Schmidt Jason SF SP
Young Chris SD SP
Guardado Eddie SEA RP
Fuentes Brian COL RP
Valverde Jose AZ RP
Gonzalez Mike PIT RP
Shields Scott ANA RP
Burgos Ambiorix KC

Hitting 48
Pitching 53
Total Points 101

Team 2:
Willingham Josh FLA C
Pujols Albert STL 1B
Figgins Chone ANA 2B
Ramirez Aramis CHI-N 3B
Peralta Jhonny CLE SS
Rowand Aaron PHI OF
Granderson Curtis DET OF
Baldelli Rocco TB OF
Tracy Chad AZ 1B
Kinsler Ian TEX 2B

Zambrano Carlos CHI-N SP
Johnson Randy NY-A SP
Bonderman Jeremy DET SP
Escobar Kelvim ANA SP
Liriano Francisco MIN SP
Dempster Ryan CHI-N RP
Ryan BJ TOR RP
Gagne Eric LA RP
Fuentes Brian COL RP
Valverde Jose AZ RP
Gonzalez Mike PIT RP

Hitting 47
Pitching 54
Total Points 101

I think the big thing I see in common is a flat burner (Pierre for 1, Figgins for 2) as well as a solid source for sb's somewhere else (Rollins/Granderson on team 1, Rowand/Granderson/Baldelli on team 2). Pujols is critical in that he throws up HUGE power and run production #'s...you need a guy like Pujols, Manny, Teix, etc that can put up close to 240 combined. Finally, most of the non-bopper guys have 15-20hr power which makes a difference.

Both teams have outstanding SP but did not take it overly early. With pitching being devalued like it is in many drafts you can get some good SP value in the 4th and 5th rounds (I think that's the earliest I'd taken a SP in those drafts). Finally, they both have 4-5 QUALITY closers...none of this Orvella/Weathers crap that ends up tanking ratios. Burgos was a FA pickup for team 1...couldn't pass that up. ;)

So that basically covers it....you've GOT to have a speed guy unless you want to be running middle of the pack there. You've GOT to have a 40/120/120 type or something close to it. Given that Hafner can come close to that there's no reason that you can't get one of those guys if you want as Hafner doesn't go till later - if you miss out on one of the first round guys you can always get Hafner. You want to target a few 20/20 type guys in the mid rounds. You want to get solid SP but you can get it when the value is really good. And you want to get solid closers but don't start the runs - just take them if the value is there.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 31, 2006 8:45 pm

I don't know that you HAVE to have a speed guy. I racked up 134 SBs last year and my top threat was Soriano, who I traded in July. If you don't pick a burner than I think you need to adopt a stratgy like mine, and almost never choose a player who gets 0 SBs. Last year AJ Pierzynski was my only player who had fewer than 13 SBs. If you are careful and alwasy select guys who will steal 5-15 bases, you can compete without the 50+ SB guy.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Mar 31, 2006 9:29 pm

You can do that but you have to make sure to get guys that not only fill in the 15'ish sb's a piece but do so without sacrificing r/rbi stats. That limits the choices you can make on the 15/15 or 20/20 type guys as some of them aren't likely to put up great r/rbi based on the team or position in the batting order.

If you get a burner you can afford to get guys that might not be quite as valued because of their lack of steals. Your Hafners, ARams, etc are great to be able to pick up. You still need to get your 20/20 guys or at least 20/15'ish...but you can make up for a lot on the r/rbi end with the big thumpers that don't necessarily run any.

You're right though GTWMA - you don't HAVE to get a burner and the last thing you want to do is start reaching for guys higher than their value dictates. But getting one of them at an appropriate spot in the draft sure as heck makes it easy to put together an offensive juggernaut while still being able to draft a good pitching staff.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby brandnew » Fri Mar 31, 2006 9:36 pm

I'm in a bind right now in a league. My only SB is coming from Weeks, and the OF spot, where I can plug in Gathright. For power, I have Ortiz, Chipper, Bonds, Hafner, Drew. I'm contemplating trading Pedro for a SS like Rollins or Reyes to help out with SBs. I'm trying to see if it'd be more beneficial to me to just keep Pedro and Nomar, and play Gathright, hoping that he and Weeks can get me to the middle of the pack in SBs, or play both Reyes and Gathright and try to dominate SBs and hope my HR/RBI don't suffer too much.
Image
brandnew
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 3599
Joined: 8 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The 909!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 31, 2006 9:42 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:You can do that but you have to make sure to get guys that not only fill in the 15'ish sb's a piece but do so without sacrificing r/rbi stats. That limits the choices you can make on the 15/15 or 20/20 type guys as some of them aren't likely to put up great r/rbi based on the team or position in the batting order.

If you get a burner you can afford to get guys that might not be quite as valued because of their lack of steals. Your Hafners, ARams, etc are great to be able to pick up. You still need to get your 20/20 guys or at least 20/15'ish...but you can make up for a lot on the r/rbi end with the big thumpers that don't necessarily run any.

You're right though GTWMA - you don't HAVE to get a burner and the last thing you want to do is start reaching for guys higher than their value dictates. But getting one of them at an appropriate spot in the draft sure as heck makes it easy to put together an offensive juggernaut while still being able to draft a good pitching staff.


You are right that it's not easy, but I think you'd be surprised at how many guys you can grab like this. It really doesn't cost you much. There is almost always an identical player to the one you are thinking about, but can steal 5-10 bases.

And, going back to the epic Drew/Green debate, my approach minimizes your variance. If you go the burner route, if your burner gets hurt, you are screwed, and lose 5-10 points. I can lose any one guy and still lose just a point or so, even less because it's easy to find a reasonable replacement.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Postby The Loveable Losers » Fri Mar 31, 2006 10:31 pm

And, going back to the epic Drew/Green debate, my approach minimizes your variance. If you go the burner route, if your burner gets hurt, you are screwed, and lose 5-10 points. I can lose any one guy and still lose just a point or so, even less because it's easy to find a reasonable replacement.


That's VERY true...going with the burner lets you build a stronger team normally but it's riskier...you've got to hope that the guy doesn't pull up lame and leave you out in the cold.
The Loveable Losers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 7290
Joined: 30 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Cubs Win!!! Cubs Win!!!

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Mar 31, 2006 10:58 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
And, going back to the epic Drew/Green debate, my approach minimizes your variance. If you go the burner route, if your burner gets hurt, you are screwed, and lose 5-10 points. I can lose any one guy and still lose just a point or so, even less because it's easy to find a reasonable replacement.


That's VERY true...going with the burner lets you build a stronger team normally but it's riskier...you've got to hope that the guy doesn't pull up lame and leave you out in the cold.


I'm not even sure the burner gives you a stronger team. If you are good, I think you can build a team that is essentially as strong, with less variance.
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 19:05 hours
(and 88 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact