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Top 25 Keepers for 2006!

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Postby Red Stripe » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:19 pm

San D wrote:You guys can stop with your rankings.

The gamer has the answers up on the pre-2006 Big Board in Yahoo! :-b


And it looks like Peavy is ranked 8 spots higher than Willis, guess that settles this argument. :-D
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Oct 09, 2005 4:07 am

nuggets wrote:Really it's splitting hairs and subject to interpretation. Many of the indicators are close.

I base my statement on their PECOTA profiles. Willis has the higher breakout rate, improve rate and lower Collapse and attrition rate. He also has the higher predicted VORP over the next four years.


This does seem odd for a sp with a K rate of 3 K per 9 lower. Can you give any insight why, or a link?

Any explanation why in 04, Willis had a 4.02 era? It wasn't bad luck, as his hit rate % (31), and strand rate % (73), were within the norm? His K rate in 04 was under the NL avg that year.
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Postby rob0417 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 4:33 am

I am surprised at all the contrevasy between peavy and willis, to me it really is a matter of personal preffrence. I would personally take Peavy but it is really close. I am a little worried about willis getting hurt because of that funky dleivery and all the innings he has logged at a young age. but than again I thought Buerhle was due to get hurt also.

As for the 25 for 06. i really don't think King Felix should be anywhere near that high. Young pitchers just run into too many problem early in their career. That doesn't mean he isn't going to be a tremendous pitcher. but for next year I much rather have pettite, or zambrano. Very few pitcher come up and can sustain instant success.

I also don't see how Mariano rivera isn't on that list. i know closer are historical shaky from year to year, but he is alway lights out, and you know he is going to get the chances.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Oct 09, 2005 4:42 am

rob0417 wrote:I am surprised at all the contrevasy between peavy and willis, to me it really is a matter of personal preffrence. I would personally take Peavy but it is really close. I am a little worried about willis getting hurt because of that funky dleivery and all the innings he has logged at a young age. but than again I thought Buerhle was due to get hurt also.

As for the 25 for 06. i really don't think King Felix should be anywhere near that high. Young pitchers just run into too many problem early in their career. That doesn't mean he isn't going to be a tremendous pitcher. but for next year I much rather have pettite, or zambrano. Very few pitcher come up and can sustain instant success.

I also don't see how Mariano rivera isn't on that list. i know closer are historical shaky from year to year, but he is alway lights out, and you know he is going to get the chances.


In keeper leagues, you can't get guys that break out. In fact, you can't get Felix in any of my keeper leagues. In keeper leagues, you have to look at the future, not just next year. Pettite entered 05 with a career 3.94 era. I will take Felix in a keeper WAY ahead of Pettitte.
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Postby nuggets » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:24 am

HOOTIE wrote:
nuggets wrote:Really it's splitting hairs and subject to interpretation. Many of the indicators are close.

I base my statement on their PECOTA profiles. Willis has the higher breakout rate, improve rate and lower Collapse and attrition rate. He also has the higher predicted VORP over the next four years.


This does seem odd for a sp with a K rate of 3 K per 9 lower. Can you give any insight why, or a link?

Any explanation why in 04, Willis had a 4.02 era? It wasn't bad luck, as his hit rate % (31), and strand rate % (73), were within the norm? His K rate in 04 was under the NL avg that year.



I assume the reasons Willis is given the slightest of edges(in my view) is the lower adjusted career HR/9, BB/9 and better durability. From what I gather, Willis is also a bit better with his GB/FB ratio but I haven't checked the relevence of this.

I would explain his "struggles" in '04 in more of an "old fashioned" way. In order to pitch the way he needs to pitch to be the best, Willis needed to change his delivery and get one year smarter.
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