Top 25 Keepers for 2006!

[HOOTIE]

FLA is better than SD. Willis gives up less BB, HR and posted a better ERA despite playing against tougher opponents. Peavy missed more time in 04 and 05 due to various injuries while Willis has not. Willis went the distance 7 to Peavy's 3. Willis had 5 SHO to Peavy's 3.

Where do you guys keep getting this notion Florida is better then SD? SD won 1 less game, and in the last 2 years, SD has won more. But this is moot either way. Both teams will lose free agents, and sign some. Factor in possible career years next year, and it's anyone's guess which team will be better.

Willis had a slightly better era this year, but in 04, Peavy was almost 2 runs lower. I don't see them being equal given the last 2 years of era, and Peavys big 3 K/9 more.

[HOOTIE]

Nuggets, just curious, which group predicts Willis better in long run? As far as DIPS or ERC, Peavy has been better the last 2 years.

DIPS

Peavy 05 3.00
Willis 05 3.20

Peavy 04 3.21
Willis 04 4.01


ERC

Peavy 05 2.51
Willis 05 2.73

Peavy 04 3.22
Willis 04 4.28

[Pogotheostrich]

Oh, and about Willis' delivery... Unless you ahve a crystal ball, you have no freaking idea whether it will lead to an injury. Prior apparently has the best delivery ever and he can't seem to stay healthy. It's a shot in the dark at best.

You're right no one can tell you whether his motion will lead to an injury. But I can tell you that it increases his chances. His mechanics put more strain on the arm than a more conventional motion. That is a fact. The thing we don't know is how well his body will hold up under the strain.

[AT]

I don't see how Willis and Peavy are equal. Willis has an edge in ERA, but Peavy beats him a lot in K/9, K/IP, and WHIP, which are huge stats. Not to mention, Peavy beats him by a lot in BAA.

Really? Who had the best ERA in the majors last year?

Jake Peavy.

[raiders_umpire]

with the depth of starting pitching for next year, i am not taking willis or carpenter in my top 25.... i might would take peavy in a keeper in the first 2 rounds, but i will definitely pass on both willis and carpenter.... but as far as my early rankings for next year,,, peavy is above both of them on my list fairly easily, then willis and carpenter are neck to neck......

i have carpenter well behind peavy due to age, and i have willis well behind peavy due to that windup---i just think that eventually it will cause him some major problems with injuries.....

[Yoda]

FLA is better than SD. Willis gives up less BB, HR and posted a better ERA despite playing against tougher opponents. Peavy missed more time in 04 and 05 due to various injuries while Willis has not. Willis went the distance 7 to Peavy's 3. Willis had 5 SHO to Peavy's 3.

Where do you guys keep getting this notion Florida is better then SD? SD won 1 less game, and in the last 2 years, SD has won more. But this is moot either way. Both teams will lose free agents, and sign some. Factor in possible career years next year, and it's anyone's guess which team will be better.

Willis had a slightly better era this year, but in 04, Peavy was almost 2 runs lower. I don't see them being equal given the last 2 years of era, and Peavys big 3 K/9 more.

Look at both pitcher's career numbers. They are almost identical.

[hooligan1]

And as far as your assessment, I'd definitely have ARam and Utley on the list, with Reyes and Dontrelle falling off. I'm not sold on Dontrelle after one good season. I would mix things up a little, but overall it isn't bad.

I'd agree. You gotta add Utley.......

[nuggets]

Nuggets, just curious, which group predicts Willis better in long run? As far as DIPS or ERC, Peavy has been better the last 2 years.

DIPS

Peavy 05 3.00
Willis 05 3.20

Peavy 04 3.21
Willis 04 4.01


ERC

Peavy 05 2.51
Willis 05 2.73

Peavy 04 3.22
Willis 04 4.28

How much value do you give NRA and DERA?

Really it's splitting hairs and subject to interpretation. Many of the indicators are close.

I base my statement on their PECOTA profiles. Willis has the higher breakout rate, improve rate and lower Collapse and attrition rate. He also has the higher predicted VORP over the next four years.

[brandnew]

I don't see how Willis and Peavy are equal. Willis has an edge in ERA, but Peavy beats him a lot in K/9, K/IP, and WHIP, which are huge stats. Not to mention, Peavy beats him by a lot in BAA.

Really? Who had the best ERA in the majors last year?

Jake Peavy.

Why are you quoting me? I'm arguing FOR Peavy

(BTW, I meant Willis had the ERA edge this year)

[San D]

You guys can stop with your rankings.

The gamer has the answers up on the pre-2006 Big Board in Yahoo!