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Top 25 Keepers for 2006!

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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:19 pm

Wins mean nothing in future success, i agree. You cant look at a guy with 20+ wins and say he is any better than a guy with 14. Wins and losses are very trivial and depend on the ability of the offense...just look at Clemens this year.
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Postby messyjesse1 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:22 pm

Guys im not a "Edited for language" idiot, I understand. But I also understand that Dontrelle has the capability to go the distance each outing, allowing MORE decisions than Peavy regardless. Dontrelle also plays on a better team, and trust me, Dontrelle will have more wins than Peavy each year from here on out.
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Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:26 pm

Watch your language, yo!

And I don't really agree with your assessment of DTrain's Wins. He played on a better team this year, but that means nothing. If the Fish do indeed move Delgado this year, their offense is severely hampered. Loria has already proved he's a cheap bastard, and will never have a huge payroll. And I think the Padres are improving and will continue to improve. But I think it's a joke to say DTrain is definitely going to have more wins than Peavy going forward...
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Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:29 pm

And as far as your assessment, I'd definitely have ARam and Utley on the list, with Reyes and Dontrelle falling off. I'm not sold on Dontrelle after one good season. I would mix things up a little, but overall it isn't bad.
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Postby AT » Wed Oct 05, 2005 4:38 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
messyjesse1 wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
messyjesse1 wrote:Actually I am not a fan of him one bit and will not be drafting him next year most likely, but stats and age show that is where he belongs in a keeper draft
Which stats? Cause Peavy is 2 spots behind him while Peavy had a better WHIP, K/9 and K/BB last year. Plus Peavy is only 7 months older.


Yes, but what about wins? That is a very big stat, plus Dontrelle is only two spots higher. I understand your points and I agree that I would take Peavy ahead of Dontrelle, but this isn't my ranking as much as when I think people will draft players (Dontrelle is known to be a little overhyped and Peavy is unnoticed). That is why Derrek Lee is on there, yet I don't know if he will be a top 5 1B.
The thing is Wins are a poor predictor of future success. Just because Dontrelle won 20+ this year doesn't mean he will in the future. K/BB, K/9 and WHIP are much more accurate for predicting a future perfomance.


Those are good predictors but they aren't the only predictors. If they were then guys like Radke, Silva, Byrd and Weaver would be top flight starters next year.

Hell, I'm actually going to examine this and see what guys show up in the Top 20 of all 3 lists.

Here are the names in order for this season in the Top 20 for those 3 categories.

K/BB: Silva, Santana, Wells, Radke, Randy, Pedro, Peavy, Carpenter, Vazquez, Pettitte, Towers, Oswalt, Maddux, Buehrle, Colon, Weaver, Byrd, Lieber, Harang, Smoltz.

K/9: Prior, Peavy, Santana, Myers, Schmidt, Pedro, Lackey, Burnett, Kazmir, Randy, Davis, Patterson, Beckett, Zambrano, Vazquez, Carpenter, Clemens, Lowry, Young, Sabathia.

WHIP: Pedro, Santana, Clemens, Pettitte, Peavy, Carpenter, Randy, Dontrelle, Smoltz, Zambrano, Colon, Garland, Silva, Weaver, Beckett, Radke, Buehrle, Byrd, Patterson, Zito.

3 Time Appearances: Santana, Randy, Pedro, Peavy, Carpenter.

2 Time Appearances: Radke, Vazquez, Pettitte, Buehrle, Colon, Weaver, Byrd, Patterson, Beckett, Zambrano, Clemens, Silva.

I agree they are good predictors, but if there were rock hard predictors pitchers wouldn't come out of nowhere and have good years. Maybe there will be some guys from this year in the Top 40 that will have breakout years next year.

I guess in order to determine what the definitive value of these stats are for predictors I'd have to get the list from last year and compare.


I'm not doing that. O:-)
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Postby mweir145 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:00 pm

Where is Halladay?
25
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:46 pm

messyjesse1 wrote:Guys im not a "Edited for language" idiot, I understand. But I also understand that Dontrelle has the capability to go the distance each outing, allowing MORE decisions than Peavy regardless. Dontrelle also plays on a better team, and trust me, Dontrelle will have more wins than Peavy each year from here on out.


Career wise, Willis goes 6.38 per start, versus Peavy's 6.25, not much of a difference.

Willis was on the better team this year, but how can anyone say next year? There are a ton of free agents to address. Wins are hard to predict. What EVIDENCE is there Willis will win more from here on out.

Fwiw, i take Peavy by a mile over Willis. Has a K per/9 3 higher.
Might not be a factor, but i hate to see young sp with tons of pitches per year. Zito, Hudson, Halladay have suffered from it. Willis has thrown 800 more pitches then Peavy the last 2 years.

Willis is good, but he doesn't sniff my top 25 in a keeper.


AT, i prefer K/9, K/BB, HR/9 over whip.
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Postby dannyolbb » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:33 pm

Hootie wrote:Willis was on the better team this year, but how can anyone say next year? There are a ton of free agents to address. Wins are hard to predict. What EVIDENCE is there Willis will win more from here on out.


A minor point, but still. I think it's time we acknowledge that Kevin Towers isn't a very good GM. Furthermore, the Padres don't have much of a minor league system, if memory serves.

My point is that they don't have a lot of help on the way. There is some evidence that Willis will continue to be on the better team. It's not conclusive, of course, but that's why it's not called proof. But there is some evidence nevertheless.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:03 pm

I don't understand all the hate against WIllis. He is still VERY young and he's shown signs of improvement. He pitches in an extreme pitcher's park. What more do you want in a keeper league? He can pitch, field and hit better than any pitcher I've seen. He'll win himself some ball games just by hitting.

At this point, Peavy's shown that he is very brittle. I think his ceiling is higher but he's broken down way too much so far for me to put him up there as most people do.
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:21 pm

dannyolbb wrote:
Hootie wrote:Willis was on the better team this year, but how can anyone say next year? There are a ton of free agents to address. Wins are hard to predict. What EVIDENCE is there Willis will win more from here on out.


A minor point, but still. I think it's time we acknowledge that Kevin Towers isn't a very good GM. Furthermore, the Padres don't have much of a minor league system, if memory serves.

My point is that they don't have a lot of help on the way. There is some evidence that Willis will continue to be on the better team. It's not conclusive, of course, but that's why it's not called proof. But there is some evidence nevertheless.


What evidence again? Towers might not be good, but SD has more wins from 04-05 then Florida. Florida won a whopping 1 more game then SD this year, and SD won more in 04. But let's throw that aside, since teams will lose and sign free agents. No one knows what SD or Florida will look like come spring. Burnett and TJones might not be back. For anyone to say right now Florida will win more then SD has zero merit.

YODA, i don't think people hate Willis, but i don't see him at # 11 in a keeper (25 for that matter). And why is Peavy brittle? In the last 3 years Willis has 93 starts versus Peavys 89.
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