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Liriano Next Year

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Postby AT » Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:48 am

I think for next season Chad's #'s are what you could expect his ceiling to be. But anything higher than that and I'd be absolutely shocked. I'd be pretty surprised if he hits the ceiling but I suppose it's possible because the kid does have good stuff.

Likely:
11 Wins
4.5 ERA
1.45 WHIP
150 K

Ceiling:
13 Wins
4 ERA
1.35 WHIP
175 K
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Postby godallahstar » Tue Sep 27, 2005 10:20 am

Atrophying Testicles wrote:LOL. I love threads like this. The ol' prediction of the hyped up kid who hasn't proved anything yet at this level. I think predicting him to do what Kazmir has done this year is optimistic. To say he will win more than 10 games, strike out 160+ batters, and have an ERA less than say 4.25 is beyond optimistic. I've seen the kid pitch a few times... He has great stuff, he strikes guys out. However, he gets into deep counts, he's wild, he has zero poise at this age, and he gets rattled and loses confidence. He's not Felix Hernandez, and 12, 13, 14, 15 Win pitchers don't grow on trees. Especially not guys who do that this young on a team that can't score runs. And don't tell me they'll have a better offense next year because they couldn't score with Hunter healthy either and it's not like they're going to open the wallet for some bats.

Sorry to use this as an example but:

I've got him on my keeper team. I predict:

13 wins
180 K's
4 ERA
1.3 WHIP


With 2 starts remaining...

Johan Santana (Same offense)

14 Wins
223 K's
3 ERA
1 WHIP

Don't invest too heavily in Liriano. He still strike guys out and may win 10 games but will likely kill you in WHIP and ERA in the long run with a couple stretches of brilliance mixed in (think 2-3 good starts in a row).


First of all, you're probably right in that people may expect a bit too much from the kid.
However, saying this "young" team won't get better without importing bats (like your favorite team probably does) is, uh, dumb?

Justin Morneau had an absolutely terrible season,
atrocious. Yes, I do blame some of this on the fact his offseason was one you would more likely expect from Austin Kearns,
but he also was rattled from that ball to his dome and the fact the team was relying on him SO much, trying too hard to hit the ball 400 feet every at bat.

He has legit 35+ power with a decent average.

Now, you seem fairly reasonable, so I expect you know who Jason Kubel is, but do you also realize he was missing this year?
who knows if he'll be ready for the opener, probably not, but I expect him to be around to make a decent impact on the team.

Joe Mauer can definitely do more than he did,
Lew Ford may not be around for the twins to waste their DH slot with. Hell, Torrii even thinks hes gone.

Liriano may get shook once he's in a tight spot,
but it coooooould also be because those were his first few big league starts. Unless you happened to see his minor league stars, which is oh-so likely.

You also kind of missed out on the fact that the twins have something the devil rays don't, a bullpen.

I don't expect them to blow many games once he does get a lead,
ask Kaz how he feels once he's taken out in the 7th with a 2 run lead.
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Postby AT » Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:51 am

godallahstar wrote:
Atrophying Testicles wrote:LOL. I love threads like this. The ol' prediction of the hyped up kid who hasn't proved anything yet at this level. I think predicting him to do what Kazmir has done this year is optimistic. To say he will win more than 10 games, strike out 160+ batters, and have an ERA less than say 4.25 is beyond optimistic. I've seen the kid pitch a few times... He has great stuff, he strikes guys out. However, he gets into deep counts, he's wild, he has zero poise at this age, and he gets rattled and loses confidence. He's not Felix Hernandez, and 12, 13, 14, 15 Win pitchers don't grow on trees. Especially not guys who do that this young on a team that can't score runs. And don't tell me they'll have a better offense next year because they couldn't score with Hunter healthy either and it's not like they're going to open the wallet for some bats.

Sorry to use this as an example but:

I've got him on my keeper team. I predict:

13 wins
180 K's
4 ERA
1.3 WHIP


With 2 starts remaining...

Johan Santana (Same offense)

14 Wins
223 K's
3 ERA
1 WHIP

Don't invest too heavily in Liriano. He still strike guys out and may win 10 games but will likely kill you in WHIP and ERA in the long run with a couple stretches of brilliance mixed in (think 2-3 good starts in a row).


First of all, you're probably right in that people may expect a bit too much from the kid.
However, saying this "young" team won't get better without importing bats (like your favorite team probably does) is, uh, dumb?

Justin Morneau had an absolutely terrible season,
atrocious. Yes, I do blame some of this on the fact his offseason was one you would more likely expect from Austin Kearns,
but he also was rattled from that ball to his dome and the fact the team was relying on him SO much, trying too hard to hit the ball 400 feet every at bat.

He has legit 35+ power with a decent average.

Now, you seem fairly reasonable, so I expect you know who Jason Kubel is, but do you also realize he was missing this year?
who knows if he'll be ready for the opener, probably not, but I expect him to be around to make a decent impact on the team.

Joe Mauer can definitely do more than he did,
Lew Ford may not be around for the twins to waste their DH slot with. Hell, Torrii even thinks hes gone.

Liriano may get shook once he's in a tight spot,
but it coooooould also be because those were his first few big league starts. Unless you happened to see his minor league stars, which is oh-so likely.

You also kind of missed out on the fact that the twins have something the devil rays don't, a bullpen.

I don't expect them to blow many games once he does get a lead,
ask Kaz how he feels once he's taken out in the 7th with a 2 run lead.


You're right, Morneau will bounce back in a huge way, 35 and .290 right? And Kubel is going to rip the cover off the ball, Torii Hunter's defense should give him 2 more wins at least, and Joe Mauer is a left handed young Mike Piazza next year. Kubel is a young stud, but you and I don't want to get into a discussion of how many guys like that have come along and fizzled out so don't go overprojecting him either...

I guess I didn't make my point well enough or you think I'm some kind of uninformed jerk who shoots down peoples' "objective projections". Either way, you're probably right. I'm both.

Anyway...You missed a couple things to consider.

Jacque Jones is a free agent.
Kazmir has 3 "Tough Losses" this year, Santana has 2.
(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?seasonType=2&type=pitch5&sort=strikeouts&split=0&season=2005&pos=all&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=17&ageMax=51)

Kazmir has 9 wins this season, with 3 Tough Losses with 5 Runs per game of Run support exactly. Santana has 2 Tough Losses with 4.67 Runs per game of run support. Their situation is more similar than you think. The Rays have a better offense that compensates for their weaker bullpen at times. Maybe a win here or a win there difference, but hardly something you can predict.

Here's a comparison of Kazmir and Liriano's #'s (Who I made the comment about off the cuff, before analyzing the stats, because they feature similar stuff. Very similar in fact.)

Kazmir's Final Season in Minors 2004 combined. 3 Stops A St. Lucie, AA Binghampton, AA Montgomery. The #'s progressively improved.

101 IP
104 K
79 H 42 BB 3 HR
2.50 ERA
1.20 WHIP

Liriano's #'s in the Minors this season combined. 2 Stops AA New Britain, AAA Rochester. The #'s improved from AA to AAA.

167.9 IP
206 K
129 H 52 BB 10 HR
2.70 ERA
1.07 WHIP

All I'm saying is don't go crazy on the kid and overproject. Kazmir has pitched well this season and his ERA is under 4 with very good K #'s. Saying Liriano will duplicate Kazmir's #'s with a couple more wins, like I said earlier in the post, isn't that ridiculous. No way the Twins put together a better offense next year than the Rays had this year and if you want to give Liriano a couple more wins because of their bullpen and their division? Do it. That's why I said a couple more wins.

If you're going to rant on me fine. Lot's of people here look forward to doing so and often do a good job of it. But don't come on here and talk like I don't know my stuff because it's not the case. I know my players, I know the numbers, I do my research and the guys all over this board all season long will back that up. They'll also back up what an a$$h*le I can be, but that's neither here nor there right now.

Put a projection out there for him. Throw out some numbers. At least I made some projections instead of coming on here and blasting someone (me) over their projections and reasoning without making a projection of my own.

Optimistic Projections happen all the time in Fantasy Baseball. All I'm saying is be wary of what you're really expecting the guy to do compared to what you hope he does.

Noone ever loves to hear the voice of reason but if you listen to it, you'll be glad you did.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Sep 27, 2005 2:26 pm

Without a legitimate power hitter other than Morneau (whom I still think won't be the 35+ HR guy everyone expects him to be) and no one really gets on base well. They were 29th in SLG, 24th in OBP this season. I know they dealt with a lot of injuries but counting on these young kids to carry the offense is asking too much. But you don't normally pick SP based on team offense anyway so this shouldn't matter too much.

I think Liriano really proved himself that he is a legitimate top prospect. I'm not sure if he is a lock for the rotation given how they bring along their prospects. My guess is, if he doesn't pitch lights out in ST, he will start at AAA. Then do some MR work and earn a rotation spot if all goes well. Based on what he's done so far in MLB, he clearly has the tools but still needs a lot of work.

The probability that Liriano will be an impact SP for 06 is small right now. There is always a chance that he will flat out dominate and be the next Carlos Zambrano or Dontrell Willis but how many people really guessed right on those guys initially? More luck than anything else IMO.
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Postby godallahstar » Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:38 pm

Atrophying Testicles wrote:
godallahstar wrote:
Atrophying Testicles wrote:LOL. I love threads like this. The ol' prediction of the hyped up kid who hasn't proved anything yet at this level. I think predicting him to do what Kazmir has done this year is optimistic. To say he will win more than 10 games, strike out 160+ batters, and have an ERA less than say 4.25 is beyond optimistic. I've seen the kid pitch a few times... He has great stuff, he strikes guys out. However, he gets into deep counts, he's wild, he has zero poise at this age, and he gets rattled and loses confidence. He's not Felix Hernandez, and 12, 13, 14, 15 Win pitchers don't grow on trees. Especially not guys who do that this young on a team that can't score runs. And don't tell me they'll have a better offense next year because they couldn't score with Hunter healthy either and it's not like they're going to open the wallet for some bats.

Sorry to use this as an example but:

I've got him on my keeper team. I predict:

13 wins
180 K's
4 ERA
1.3 WHIP


With 2 starts remaining...

Johan Santana (Same offense)

14 Wins
223 K's
3 ERA
1 WHIP

Don't invest too heavily in Liriano. He still strike guys out and may win 10 games but will likely kill you in WHIP and ERA in the long run with a couple stretches of brilliance mixed in (think 2-3 good starts in a row).


First of all, you're probably right in that people may expect a bit too much from the kid.
However, saying this "young" team won't get better without importing bats (like your favorite team probably does) is, uh, dumb?

Justin Morneau had an absolutely terrible season,
atrocious. Yes, I do blame some of this on the fact his offseason was one you would more likely expect from Austin Kearns,
but he also was rattled from that ball to his dome and the fact the team was relying on him SO much, trying too hard to hit the ball 400 feet every at bat.

He has legit 35+ power with a decent average.

Now, you seem fairly reasonable, so I expect you know who Jason Kubel is, but do you also realize he was missing this year?
who knows if he'll be ready for the opener, probably not, but I expect him to be around to make a decent impact on the team.

Joe Mauer can definitely do more than he did,
Lew Ford may not be around for the twins to waste their DH slot with. Hell, Torrii even thinks hes gone.

Liriano may get shook once he's in a tight spot,
but it coooooould also be because those were his first few big league starts. Unless you happened to see his minor league stars, which is oh-so likely.

You also kind of missed out on the fact that the twins have something the devil rays don't, a bullpen.

I don't expect them to blow many games once he does get a lead,
ask Kaz how he feels once he's taken out in the 7th with a 2 run lead.


You're right, Morneau will bounce back in a huge way, 35 and .290 right? And Kubel is going to rip the cover off the ball, Torii Hunter's defense should give him 2 more wins at least, and Joe Mauer is a left handed young Mike Piazza next year. Kubel is a young stud, but you and I don't want to get into a discussion of how many guys like that have come along and fizzled out so don't go overprojecting him either...

I guess I didn't make my point well enough or you think I'm some kind of uninformed jerk who shoots down peoples' "objective projections". Either way, you're probably right. I'm both.

Anyway...You missed a couple things to consider.

Jacque Jones is a free agent.
Kazmir has 3 "Tough Losses" this year, Santana has 2.
(http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?seasonType=2&type=pitch5&sort=strikeouts&split=0&season=2005&pos=all&hand=a&league=mlb&ageMin=17&ageMax=51)

Kazmir has 9 wins this season, with 3 Tough Losses with 5 Runs per game of Run support exactly. Santana has 2 Tough Losses with 4.67 Runs per game of run support. Their situation is more similar than you think. The Rays have a better offense that compensates for their weaker bullpen at times. Maybe a win here or a win there difference, but hardly something you can predict.

Here's a comparison of Kazmir and Liriano's #'s (Who I made the comment about off the cuff, before analyzing the stats, because they feature similar stuff. Very similar in fact.)

Kazmir's Final Season in Minors 2004 combined. 3 Stops A St. Lucie, AA Binghampton, AA Montgomery. The #'s progressively improved.

101 IP
104 K
79 H 42 BB 3 HR
2.50 ERA
1.20 WHIP

Liriano's #'s in the Minors this season combined. 2 Stops AA New Britain, AAA Rochester. The #'s improved from AA to AAA.

167.9 IP
206 K
129 H 52 BB 10 HR
2.70 ERA
1.07 WHIP

All I'm saying is don't go crazy on the kid and overproject. Kazmir has pitched well this season and his ERA is under 4 with very good K #'s. Saying Liriano will duplicate Kazmir's #'s with a couple more wins, like I said earlier in the post, isn't that ridiculous. No way the Twins put together a better offense next year than the Rays had this year and if you want to give Liriano a couple more wins because of their bullpen and their division? Do it. That's why I said a couple more wins.

If you're going to rant on me fine. Lot's of people here look forward to doing so and often do a good job of it. But don't come on here and talk like I don't know my stuff because it's not the case. I know my players, I know the numbers, I do my research and the guys all over this board all season long will back that up. They'll also back up what an a$$h*le I can be, but that's neither here nor there right now.

Put a projection out there for him. Throw out some numbers. At least I made some projections instead of coming on here and blasting someone (me) over their projections and reasoning without making a projection of my own.

Optimistic Projections happen all the time in Fantasy Baseball. All I'm saying is be wary of what you're really expecting the guy to do compared to what you hope he does.

Noone ever loves to hear the voice of reason but if you listen to it, you'll be glad you did.


Yes, theyre similar but not eerily.

The Devil Rays happen to be my favorite team,
and i'm from minnesota.
Odd.

I was merely doing what you seemed to be doing,
plugging a side and making a small case.

Kazmir and Liriano have different plus pitches and both need to refine themselves,
and yeah, i realize jacque may be gone.
i'd personally like that,
as for morneau. 35+ and 270 would be an ideal projection if i were to wish one upon him.

I'm not even convinced Liriano will be in the starting rotation next year, the twins are weird.

but if he were to start for the majority of the year,
i wouldn't even consider putting him in my fantasy baseball lineup outside of the very favorable matchups against weak teams.

of course, i also kept away from kazmir too.
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Postby brandnew » Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:08 am

What about his future? What kind of numbers do you think he can produce in his prime? You buy into the hype?
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Postby AT » Wed Sep 28, 2005 7:59 am

brandnew wrote:What about his future? What kind of numbers do you think he can produce in his prime? You buy into the hype?


Too early to predict such things if you ask me. Anything can happen to the kid at this point.
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Postby looptid » Wed Sep 28, 2005 9:17 am

In reference to an earlier post, Ford isn't going anywhere. It's Jones the Twins will likely part with, as he will look for something in the neighborhood of $15/3. With Baker and Liriano more than competent to hold down the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation, the Twins will probably add offense with a sign-and-trade of Lohse. And if they cut/move Jones, Mays, Lohse, Rivas, they'll have a little over $10 million to work with in the free agent market. Ryan has already publically said that he needs to address the offense in this winter. When the signings last winter were Jaun Castro and Mike Redmond, I'm not holding my breath, but at least there is talk about beefing up the bats for the first time I can remember.

Kubel has been rehabing all season and should be ready for opening day, although my guess is that he'll have to be the designated hitter for much of the season, not that he and LeCroy wouldn't make a fantastic platoon.

I expect Morneau, Mauer, and Bartlett to be imrpoved next season. Bartlett has hit in the .330s in Triple-A, even when he was sent down this season. He'll be improved next season, and a hell of a lot better than the Castro-Punto-Rodriguez trainwreck that was used this season.

What the Twins need is a right handed power bat, though with Ford taking over for Jones our team splits against lefties should be improved. With that $10 million, inking Konerko would be a wet dream.

Stewart will be in the last year of his contract, and will make a hefty (well, hefty for the Twins) $6.5 million. If this season wasn't the begning of the decline, a return to 2003 will help as well.

I'll bet anyone even money that the offense isn't as bad as it was this season. Honestly, it has no where to go but up.
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Postby AT » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:07 am

looptid wrote:In reference to an earlier post, Ford isn't going anywhere. It's Jones the Twins will likely part with, as he will look for something in the neighborhood of $15/3. With Baker and Liriano more than competent to hold down the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation, the Twins will probably add offense with a sign-and-trade of Lohse. And if they cut/move Jones, Mays, Lohse, Rivas, they'll have a little over $10 million to work with in the free agent market. Ryan has already publically said that he needs to address the offense in this winter. When the signings last winter were Jaun Castro and Mike Redmond, I'm not holding my breath, but at least there is talk about beefing up the bats for the first time I can remember.

Kubel has been rehabing all season and should be ready for opening day, although my guess is that he'll have to be the designated hitter for much of the season, not that he and LeCroy wouldn't make a fantastic platoon.

I expect Morneau, Mauer, and Bartlett to be imrpoved next season. Bartlett has hit in the .330s in Triple-A, even when he was sent down this season. He'll be improved next season, and a hell of a lot better than the Castro-Punto-Rodriguez trainwreck that was used this season.

What the Twins need is a right handed power bat, though with Ford taking over for Jones our team splits against lefties should be improved. With that $10 million, inking Konerko would be a wet dream.

Stewart will be in the last year of his contract, and will make a hefty (well, hefty for the Twins) $6.5 million. If this season wasn't the begning of the decline, a return to 2003 will help as well.

I'll bet anyone even money that the offense isn't as bad as it was this season. Honestly, it has no where to go but up.


A Bold Prediction to say the least.
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Postby looptid » Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:13 am

So what you're saying is that you don't think Brent Abernathy is the answer? ;-)
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