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Postby rainman23 » Sun Sep 25, 2005 11:09 pm

Fireball Express wrote:
rainman23 wrote:
Fireball Express wrote:
rainman23 wrote: Anyone who drafted Carpenter this year struck gold, and you've gotta be kind of an ingrate to make up insulting nicknames for the player when they fail to be godlike for a few starts.


I beg your pardon? Someone who insults someone else for insulting a third person? :-?


in·grate ( P ) Pronunciation Key (ngrt)
n.
An ungrateful person.

I didn't say you were a dick. "Ingrate" seems appropriate, though.


Hey, the guy made my sig. He's even the only one in it that didn't miss time from being beamed with a line drive come backer. I've been big on him all year. Even drafted him in a keeper league (not the one I have been talking about). I'm not really ungrateful, just confused as to why he has been pitching poorly recently, a bit confused as to what to do with him this week.



Oh, and just so you know, sometimes I am a dick. :-)


I didn't mean to hassle you. You sound like a good guy. I wish I'd had the foresight to target Carpenter. Good luck.
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Postby mamorris » Sun Sep 25, 2005 11:54 pm

rainman23 wrote:Personally, I think a season is a pretty good sample size. Carpenter may never have another year like this, but he's pretty much as good as he looks. I don't know what Loaiza's story is, but I've tended to believe the same thing about him. You don't get lucky for 35 starts.


A season isn't a good sample size though. Did Kevin Millwood become a better pitcher in the offseason, or did the luck just turn in his favour this year? Looking at his peripheral stats, it would seem he's just been lucky this year after being unlucky last year. This is just one example of course, but I'm sure I could dig up more if I had to.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:41 am

mamorris wrote:
rainman23 wrote:Personally, I think a season is a pretty good sample size. Carpenter may never have another year like this, but he's pretty much as good as he looks. I don't know what Loaiza's story is, but I've tended to believe the same thing about him. You don't get lucky for 35 starts.


A season isn't a good sample size though. Did Kevin Millwood become a better pitcher in the offseason, or did the luck just turn in his favour this year? Looking at his peripheral stats, it would seem he's just been lucky this year after being unlucky last year. This is just one example of course, but I'm sure I could dig up more if I had to.
The season is a large enough sample size. No matter how big the sample size is that luck is going to be a factor.
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Postby mamorris » Tue Sep 27, 2005 12:57 am

Sure, but the luck factor reduces to an acceptably small amount once the sample size is big enough. That point, for most purposes, is more than one season.
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Postby longshotwi » Tue Sep 27, 2005 1:21 am

I guess 21 wins, 7 complete games, 4 shutouts, 207 k's, 2.71 era, 1.04 whip is all luck. LOL
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Postby mamorris » Tue Sep 27, 2005 11:47 am

longshotwi wrote:I guess 21 wins, 7 complete games, 4 shutouts, 207 k's, 2.71 era, 1.04 whip is all luck. LOL


Nobody said that. I was responding to the argument that "you can't pitch over your head for a full season". Of course it's not "all luck", but luck can be the difference between an ERA of 2.71 and an ERA in the mid-low (or even high) 3s. Also, it could be the difference between 21 wins and 15 wins (or even less).
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Postby Pedantic » Tue Sep 27, 2005 3:07 pm

mamorris wrote:
longshotwi wrote:I guess 21 wins, 7 complete games, 4 shutouts, 207 k's, 2.71 era, 1.04 whip is all luck. LOL


Nobody said that. I was responding to the argument that "you can't pitch over your head for a full season". Of course it's not "all luck", but luck can be the difference between an ERA of 2.71 and an ERA in the mid-low (or even high) 3s. Also, it could be the difference between 21 wins and 15 wins (or even less).


Carpenter would be quite unlucky indeed if his ERA were in the mid-3's this year.
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