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Johan is the AL Cy Young, Right?

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Postby swyck » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:00 pm

Red Stripe wrote:I think Johan should win it but you should all know how those voters usually cast their votes. They put way to much emphasis on W-L records and it really screws some guys over because they might not play on a playoff team. I've preached that over and over again but that is just the way it works. It'll most likely be Colon because the he ain't too far away from Johan in ERA, WHIP, and BAA but he is a 20 winner and has the same amount of losses. For some reason the voters soil themselves when they see a 20 winner and just ignore the true telling stats.

So I think Johan should win it, but I think Colon will win it.

I think Colon will win it and should.

I'm all for using the stats, but wins is one of them, and with only 14 Johan isnt far enough ahead to really deserve it. He sure doesnt rate the love he's getting now.

3.05\0.99 vs 3.34\1.13 in era\whip is better but not overwhelmingly so. 220 K's vs 149 is where he has a great advantage but in my mind thats offset by the disparity in wins. I do think wins is a valid cat to use for a Cy Young judgement. With only 14 you need to do better then a 3.05 ERA to merit the CY IMO.

Last year he had the wins and the ERA and he played on the same lousy team. The Brew had 10 less wins last year and he had 20 wins. Now that was a season worthy of a Cy Young.

You guys are making it sound like Colon is one of those super lucky high era 20 game winners. He's had a fine year. Give him the CY.
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Postby RynMan » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:25 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
raiders_umpire wrote:between colon and santana imo... colons wins verse santanas overall numbers,,, very same situation to the NL of clemens and carpenter.... i think wins(carp and colon) will probably win out in both situations though.....
I have to agree. Voters won't go for Santana with only 14 wins.


Sad, isn't it? :-t
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Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Sep 23, 2005 1:37 am

swyck wrote:Last year he had the wins and the ERA and he played on the same lousy team. The Brew had 10 less wins last year and he had 20 wins. Now that was a season worthy of a Cy Young.

:-?
Guess I'd have to go back and check the standings, but I'd be surprised if the Twins (NOT 'The Brew') won the AL Central with 10 fewer wins than they now have. Also, I believe the 'same lousy team' provided Santana with more than, oh, one run per game.

Bottom line: Colon gets it, but not because of anything Santana failed to do.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Sep 23, 2005 2:30 am

I would pick Santana easy. If you throw out records, Santana has pitched better.

OPS against
Santana .595 1st in AL
Colon .671 2nd

ERC
Santana 2.20 1st in AL
Colon 3.04

DIPS
Santana 2.83
Colon 3.73

Run support per 9
Colon 5.88
Santana 4.63

Santana beats Colon in just about any pitching catergory except wins, which run support seems to validate.
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Postby silverZ » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:20 pm

They should have a seperate award for most wins. The cy young should go to the best pitcher, not the best record.
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Postby lesgrant » Fri Sep 23, 2005 9:48 pm

But Cy Young was about wins. Sure he had a dominant ERA. But the award is about the record, just like the MVP is about AVG, HR, and RBI, not defense or baserunning.

I could not give the award to someone who has won so few games compared to what is possible to win (and what previous winners including Santana have won) in a five man rotation.

Both the MVP and Cy Young are about a performance within the context of the team. Baseball is a team sport. You can deconstruct it all you want, but you'll still need nine guys for a full side who will have to play together to win games - which is the ultimate objective on the field, not accumulating stats for stats' sake.
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Postby mweir145 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 10:35 pm

lesgrant wrote:But Cy Young was about wins. Sure he had a dominant ERA. But the award is about the record, just like the MVP is about AVG, HR, and RBI, not defense or baserunning.

I could not give the award to someone who has won so few games compared to what is possible to win (and what previous winners including Santana have won) in a five man rotation.

Both the MVP and Cy Young are about a performance within the context of the team. Baseball is a team sport. You can deconstruct it all you want, but you'll still need nine guys for a full side who will have to play together to win games - which is the ultimate objective on the field, not accumulating stats for stats' sake.

But wins don't always show who is the most effective and best pitcher that year.
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Postby Kingctb27 » Sat Sep 24, 2005 1:21 am

HOOTIE wrote:I would pick Santana easy. If you throw out records, Santana has pitched better.

OPS against
Santana .595 1st in AL
Colon .671 2nd

ERC
Santana 2.20 1st in AL
Colon 3.04

DIPS
Santana 2.83
Colon 3.73

Run support per 9
Colon 5.88
Santana 4.63

Santana beats Colon in just about any pitching catergory except wins, which run support seems to validate.

Okay, raise your hand if you have no idea what "DIPS" and "ERC" stand for.... !+) :*)
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Postby HOOTIE » Sat Sep 24, 2005 2:37 am

kingctb27 wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:I would pick Santana easy. If you throw out records, Santana has pitched better.

OPS against
Santana .595 1st in AL
Colon .671 2nd

ERC
Santana 2.20 1st in AL
Colon 3.04

DIPS
Santana 2.83
Colon 3.73

Run support per 9
Colon 5.88
Santana 4.63

Santana beats Colon in just about any pitching catergory except wins, which run support seems to validate.

Okay, raise your hand if you have no idea what "DIPS" and "ERC" stand for.... !+) :*)


Sorry about that.

ERC is Component era, which is a estimate of what a pitchers era should be, based on his performance.

DIPS era, is defensive independent pitching stats, which basically takes a pitcher's stat lines, without any possible influence from the defense behind a pitcher.

LESGRANT, the CY criteria states best pitcher that year. Wins don't always mean the best pitcher, since team comes into wins more then the other stats. One quick loo at run support (pitcher has ZERO contro;), shows Colon has been much more fortunate then Santana.
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Postby superfly » Wed Sep 28, 2005 12:20 am

Win #15 for Johan and the ERA margin between him and the others increases. I believe he will try for #16 on Sunday. If he gets it and Colon loses tomorrow, I think he just may pull out the Cy.
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