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I don't understand Baseball Prospectus's hit list.

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I don't understand Baseball Prospectus's hit list.

Postby dannyolbb » Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:24 am

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=4430

How in the world do they rank the Mets above the Astros, for instance?

Is it overall organizational health? It seems... odd.

Am I reading this wrong?
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Postby baseballnewb » Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:29 am

It has to do with strength of schedule and runs scored vs runs allowed mostly. A teams record isn't the best tool to judge how good the team is, there is a lot more than just talent that goes into the record. A team that wins 90 games by 5 runs against the best teams in baseball is still better than one who wins 100 but always wins by 1 and only faces the worst teams, to use an extremely silly and simplified example.

Not saying that this list is any better though, its all pretty theoretical stuff.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Sep 13, 2005 11:31 am

It has to do with the difference in runs scored vs. runs allowed.

Mets
RS - 640
RA - 570
+70

Astros
RS - 603
RA - 550
+53
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Postby prhood » Tue Sep 13, 2005 12:11 pm

There is an article written about 3 weeks ago for Baseball Prospectus which explains how the list is constructed. It's too long to post here but visit the site's articles and look back about 3 weeks.
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Postby dannyolbb » Tue Sep 13, 2005 12:20 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:It has to do with the difference in runs scored vs. runs allowed.

Mets
RS - 640
RA - 570
+70

Astros
RS - 603
RA - 550
+53


Interesting. Does this mean that the Mets should have a better pythagorean record than the Astros? Does this tie in, then, with strength of schedule?

If I'm understanding correctly, the list is approximately the order of the standings if everyone were in the same division and had a schedule that allowed everyone to beat up on the Padres (pick any bad team here) equally.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Sep 13, 2005 12:39 pm

dannyolbb wrote:Interesting. Does this mean that the Mets should have a better pythagorean record than the Astros? Does this tie in, then, with strength of schedule?
The Mets have a better pythagorean record, yes. I don't think the Hit List takes strength of schedule into account. ESPN's RPI does though.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi
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Postby prhood » Tue Sep 13, 2005 2:18 pm

For everyone's information here is a part of the article "The Prospectus Hit List - The System Explained".

Quote:
For my money, the single most important tenet of sabermetrics is that there's a predictable relationship between a team's winning percentage and the number of runs it scores and allows. Bill James first codified this in his original Pythagorean formula:

win% = (RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)

RS and RA are runs scored and runs allowed, G is games. Studies by BP's Clay Davenport have shown that not only is the Pythagorean formula a good predictor of a team's winning percentage after the fact (how many games should team X have won), it's a better predictor of future winning percentage than the team's actual winning percentage.

The Hit List builds on this in creating our version of the power rankings. It's not subjective; the rankings are computed by equally weighting actual, first-, second- and third-order winning percentages for the season to date as calculated in BP's Adjusted Standings (a Davenport invention). Actual winning percentage is obvious enough, the percentage of games a team wins. The other three are calculated using the Pythagenpat method, a close relative of Bill James' original Pythagorean formula where

win% = (RS^X)/(RS^X+ RA^X)
X = (RS+RA)/G)^.285

First-order winning percentage is computed using actual runs scored and allowed.

Second-order winning percentage uses equivalent runs scored and allowed, based on run elements (hits, walks, total bases, etc.) and the scoring environment (park and league adjustments).

Third-order winning percentage adjusts for the quality of the opponent's hitting and pitching via EqA allowed and opponents' EqA.

By using the four percentages, we're correcting for teams that over- or underperform relative to how many runs they've scored and allowed, how many runs they should have scored/allowed given the number and type of hits, walks and other events, their ballpark environment and their quality of competition. There's nothing written in stone about this formula, but neither--contrary to some of the accusations I received from card-carrying Angels fans--is there any hidden agenda. It's simply a way of looking at the question, "How good is each team?" and using a few related but slightly different objective measures to answer that question. In coming up with a means to rank the teams, I wanted to find a way that gave weight to various categories of performance without overcompensating for any of them. That includes actual winning percentage, but goes beyond to try to get a truer picture of what's going on than simple wins, losses and run totals will tell you.

End Quote

Sorry for the length of the text but I hope it clears up some confusion.
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