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who thinks Ryan Howard will hit 40 HRs next year

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Postby BANDINI » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:56 pm

TB13 wrote:
BANDINI wrote:Thome is done in Philly. Yes the Phillies management is inept, but they WILL trade Thome to clear room for Howard otherwise the city will have a revolt against them.

Saying this over the Internet is one thing. Real life works a little bit differently. Thome is not just owed money. He is owed LOTS of money. And has 3 years (or is it two?) left on his contract. Philly will have to swallow no less than half his salary and face the distinct possibility that they will STILL have to take on some bad money in return. I believe that Thome still has a another 40 hr year in him, but the injuries are starting to take their toll.
The market for Thome is small, even if they pick up half his contract. I do not think that he can hold out an a strict first baseman anymore. But who in the AL can afford him? The teams that can, are not shopping for first basemen. Boston would be a decent choice, but would they be willing to take him on for the next 3 years? The Mets would be a decent choice, but would Philly trade him within the division?
I think that Thome is going to be extremely to deal.


Yes it is quite a bit of money, but in my eyes the Phils have no other choice UNLESS they can get some stud prospects for Howard (which I doubt they could do). But I think it is no coincidence that the Phils are playing harder and with more swagger since Howard and Utley have become full-timers. They are the new leaders of this team, essentially taking over the team from the laid-back Thome and Burrell. To get rid of Howard would doom this team IMO, and would decrease an already dwindling fan base. Phils management is horrendous, but they should do the right thing here and build around Howard and Utley. They have to suck it up and deal Thome and spend the money. I'd rather play Howard full-time with his small salary plus half of Thome's salary, rather then stick with an aging Thome and pay him his FULL salary.
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Postby TB13 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:22 pm

BANDINI wrote:Yes it is quite a bit of money, but in my eyes the Phils have no other choice

That is not entirely accurate. They may not have a choice and be forced to trade Howard. They are the sellers and not the buyers. A seller may have no choice but to TRY to trade, but a buyer has a choice of whether or not they are going to buy. Thome's age, recent injuries, the amount of years left and the amount of money owed will make it extremely difficult to trade him. Even if they are going to eat no less than half the contract.
This is like the Mike Piazza argument that I had with Met fans earlier this year. They said the same things. The Mets have no choice but to try to trade him. I liken that situation to the ones that Philly will face. The market for Thome is very, very small. And it shrinks even further, when one considers that the teams that CAN affort him, may already have someone that they are quite comfortable with playing the position.

"They have to suck it up and deal Thome and spend the money"

The problem is that it takes 2 teams for a trade to happen. I believe that Thome's contract has something like 3 years and $30m or 2 years and $20m left on it. That, in itself, renders him virtually untradeable. Like I said, not only would Philly have to eat no less than half the contract, but they would probably have to be willing to take on an additional bad contract in return.
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Postby BANDINI » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:39 pm

TB13 wrote:
BANDINI wrote:Yes it is quite a bit of money, but in my eyes the Phils have no other choice

That is not entirely accurate. They may not have a choice and be forced to trade Howard. They are the sellers and not the buyers. A seller may have no choice but to TRY to trade, but a buyer has a choice of whether or not they are going to buy. Thome's age, recent injuries, the amount of years left and the amount of money owed will make it extremely difficult to trade him. Even if they are going to eat no less than half the contract.

"They have to suck it up and deal Thome and spend the money"

The problem is that it takes 2 teams for a trade to happen. I believe that Thome's contract has something like 3 years and $30m or 2 years and $20m left on it. That, in itself, renders him virtually untradeable. Like I said, not only would Philly have to eat no less than half the contract, but they would probably have to be willing to take on an additional bad contract in return.


I agree with you that it takes 2 teams to make the deal. I also agree that the Phils may have to pay MORE than half of his salary to make it work, and/or take on a bad contract in return. That's fine, just do it - whatever it takes! I'm sure there are a few AL teams out there that are willing to roll the dice with him as a DH (he did hit 89 HRs the last 2 seasons). The Phillies just have to get creative to make a deal happen - its something they have never done before, but it's not impossible.
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Postby 1Bogie » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:40 pm

Phillys don't know any better to start him in OF next year.
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Postby Pedantic » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:03 pm

If he gets 500 at-bats next year, I think we'll have a new strikeout record. And Adam Dunn can breathe a sigh of relief. :-b
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Postby TB13 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:18 pm

BANDINI wrote:That's fine, just do it - whatever it takes! I'm sure there are a few AL teams out there that are willing to roll the dice with him as a DH (he did hit 89 HRs the last 2 seasons). The Phillies just have to get creative to make a deal happen - its something they have never done before, but it's not impossible.


Saying that they have to get this done, "whatever it takes", is just not practical, IMO. Not that I am trying to rain on your parade, but the owners are also businessmen. Evenutually their business sense is going to play into this. Is the Philadelphia ownership going to be willing to swallow around $15-20m? In addition to that, are they then going to be willing to take on another $10m or so of another bad contract? Seems doubtfull to me. Nothing is impossible, but that is quite a large amount for ownership to swallow.
And again, you have to factor in two things. First of all, is there a match between a team that can afford him and a team that can use him? Seems to me that you need for one team to answer "yes" to both of those questions. Second of all, does the desperation of wanting to push out Thome and replace him with Howard prevent them from dealing within their own division? Are the Phillies going to be willing to trade him to the Mets (for example) and watch him then hit some 40-odd bombs for a team in their own division?
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Postby TB13 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:19 pm

Pedantic wrote:If he gets 500 at-bats next year, I think we'll have a new strikeout record. And Adam Dunn can breathe a sigh of relief. :-b

That's fine. On my team, I will take his K's, if it comes with a .280 BA, 40 Hrs & another 110 rbi's.
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Postby BANDINI » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:35 pm

TB13 wrote:
BANDINI wrote:That's fine, just do it - whatever it takes! I'm sure there are a few AL teams out there that are willing to roll the dice with him as a DH (he did hit 89 HRs the last 2 seasons). The Phillies just have to get creative to make a deal happen - its something they have never done before, but it's not impossible.


Saying that they have to get this done, "whatever it takes", is just not practical, IMO. Not that I am trying to rain on your parade, but the owners are also businessmen. Evenutually their business sense is going to play into this. Is the Philadelphia ownership going to be willing to swallow around $15-20m? In addition to that, are they then going to be willing to take on another $10m or so of another bad contract? Seems doubtfull to me. Nothing is impossible, but that is quite a large amount for ownership to swallow.


Well the Phillies ARE great businessmen - they've been milking this team and the city for quite some time. And now they are paying for it with terrible attendance in what was once a great baseball city. My point is, for once they need TO THINK OF THE TEAM FIRST AND DO WHAT THEY CAN TO FIX the situation instead of taking the easy way out. Yes they will feel the financial pain this year, but the team will be better and THE FANS WILL ACTUALLY COME OUT TO SEE THEM!! Thus in the long term the team will make money. However if they continue to take the easy way out, the attendance will continue to get worse and worse because EVERYBODY in this town thinks this organization is a joke.
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:38 pm

wrveres wrote:
perlick29 wrote:
wrveres wrote:Out of curiosity ... exactly where is he going to be hitting these 40 homeruns next season?

Thome is still under contract, is he not?
and if Philly is going to trade Thome, they are going to have one hell of a time getting somebody to pick up an aging, injured stars contract, I would think


Good question. As of 2 days ago when I interviewed him for FOX29, GM Ed Wade still doesn't know the answer to that question. Though he did say that a situation like this gives us the luxury of having two very capable 1st baseman. That's GM lingo for I currently have my finger wedged in my pooper on this one. :-D


what do we have to do to get you to share your interviews here?
Is there copyright problems or something?
I would love to hear what Ed Wade has to say ... and Paul too ;-D


didn't he say something about his show being broadcasted on the internet too? or maybe that was his other job at temple university. :-?
let us know perlick. ;-D
Free WR!
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Postby TB13 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 4:02 pm

BANDINI wrote: My point is, for once they need TO THINK OF THE TEAM FIRST AND DO WHAT THEY CAN TO FIX the situation instead of taking the easy way out. Yes they will feel the financial pain this year, but the team will be better and THE FANS WILL ACTUALLY COME OUT TO SEE THEM!! Thus in the long term the team will make money.


That's not how it works though. When you start dealing with figures like $15-25m, you are no longer dealing with business in the normal scope of things.
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