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who thinks Ryan Howard will hit 40 HRs next year

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Postby chadlincoln » Fri Sep 16, 2005 11:36 am

He reminds me of a little David Ortiz.
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Postby BANDINI » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:06 pm

chadlincoln wrote:He reminds me of a little David Ortiz.


a "little" David ortiz? Howard is actually physically bigger - 6'4 265 lbs! And don't forget, Howard will be turning 26 next month so he's not a gawky rookie who still needs to fill out. He is already huge!
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Postby perlick29 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:09 pm

Here's the skinny on young Ryan who by the way is none to skinny and none to bright either. (I've interviewed him several times and can say so first hand)

He's blessed with enormous potential but thus far can't hit a lefty for squat. His bread and butter is a pitch outer half which he can mash to the opposite field or pull for a nice homer. His big problem is dealing with a hook on the inside half. For that matter he gets tied up on inner-half fastballs. Pitchers will start to figure this out as the teams he plays the rest of the way except for Cincy have all faced him before. He wont keep this torrid pace up for the rest of the season, but if he does look for him to have a bit of a sophmire slump even though he's done playing in the minors. My advice is for next year see if you can draft someone else or find him at the later rounds rather than base your decision on one half.

He's a good kid, (I shouldn't be saying kid, he's 4 years older than me) but I can foresee some growing pains in the very near future as the Marlins Mets and Braves will all have a book on him in late September.
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Postby wrveres » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:12 pm

Out of curiosity ... exactly where is he going to be hitting these 40 homeruns next season?

Thome is still under contract, is he not?
and if Philly is going to trade Thome, they are going to have one hell of a time getting somebody to pick up an aging, injured stars contract, I would think
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Postby perlick29 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:17 pm

wrveres wrote:Out of curiosity ... exactly where is he going to be hitting these 40 homeruns next season?

Thome is still under contract, is he not?
and if Philly is going to trade Thome, they are going to have one hell of a time getting somebody to pick up an aging, injured stars contract, I would think


Good question. As of 2 days ago when I interviewed him for FOX29, GM Ed Wade still doesn't know the answer to that question. Though he did say that a situation like this gives us the luxury of having two very capable 1st baseman. That's GM lingo for I currently have my finger wedged in my pooper on this one. :-D
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Postby BANDINI » Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 pm

wrveres wrote:Out of curiosity ... exactly where is he going to be hitting these 40 homeruns next season?

Thome is still under contract, is he not?
and if Philly is going to trade Thome, they are going to have one hell of a time getting somebody to pick up an aging, injured stars contract, I would think


Thome is done in Philly. Yes the Phillies management is inept, but they WILL trade Thome to clear room for Howard otherwise the city will have a revolt against them. There is no way Howard rides the pine again. What will happen is the Phillies will trade Thome to another team and agree to pay for a large portion of his contract to help the other team. It will be the only way to get rid of Thome. It will hurt Philly financially, but there is no other option unless another team is just stupid and trades for him straight up. Bottom line though, Thome is gone and Philly will pay for a good portion of his contract to make it work. Howard is in for good now.
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Postby TB13 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:08 pm

BANDINI wrote:Thome is done in Philly. Yes the Phillies management is inept, but they WILL trade Thome to clear room for Howard otherwise the city will have a revolt against them.

Saying this over the Internet is one thing. Real life works a little bit differently. Thome is not just owed money. He is owed LOTS of money. And has 3 years (or is it two?) left on his contract. Philly will have to swallow no less than half his salary and face the distinct possibility that they will STILL have to take on some bad money in return. I believe that Thome still has a another 40 hr year in him, but the injuries are starting to take their toll.
The market for Thome is small, even if they pick up half his contract. I do not think that he can hold out an a strict first baseman anymore. But who in the AL can afford him? The teams that can, are not shopping for first basemen. Boston would be a decent choice, but would they be willing to take him on for the next 3 years? The Mets would be a decent choice, but would Philly trade him within the division?
I think that Thome is going to be extremely to deal.
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Postby wrveres » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:17 pm

I just read where attendence is way down in Philly this year. So much so that they are not going to be able to keep up the Payroll they have been sporting for the last couple of seasons. Knowing that, I can't see them paying anybody to take the slugger off their hands.
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:24 pm

BANDINI wrote:As a Philly fan living in Philly, I have seen this kid play quite a bit. I can tell you now hitting 40+ HRs will be no sweat for him, unless he has a horrific slump (which is always a possibility for 2nd year guys). The ball absolutely leaps off his bat. He hits HRs effortlessly, in fact most of his HRs are opposite field shots. Once he learns how to pull the ball more he will be hitting 450 foot HRs routinely. He has a Cecil Fielder type build - just huge with a nice stroke. I believe 40 HRs and 100+ RBIs will be routine for him in the coming years.


Maybe those are HRs only because they play in that bandbox over there. :D His home/road HR split is 11-7, so that's not that surprising. Jeter hits plenty of opposite field HRs in to the RF short porch at Yankees Stadium too (and many a Bosox also learn to take advantage of the Green Monster although mostly for cheap doubles).

If he hasn't already learned to pull the ball, then I'd be a bit worried given how often he K's. Doesn't sound very good that he's already K-ing so much trying to hit opposite field HRs. Personally, I suspect he does indeed pull a lot more than you think/remember.

As for the Thome situation, they might be better off sticking w/ Thome and trading Howard instead. Maybe they can trade Howard to the Twins for a nice young pitcher. Howard probably fits the Twins' needs perfectly (and the fact he doesn't walk that much probably won't concern the Twins either) and vice versa w/ the Twins' wealth of pitching and the Phillies' needs w/ pitching. Also, after the trade, they should see about pushing the fences back a good 10-20 ft to help out their pitchers some. It's probably a bit demoralizing for them to see pop flies turning into HRs over there -- and I could use the help since I own Myers in my dynasty-like league. :D
Last edited by Sultans of Squat on Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby wrveres » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:27 pm

perlick29 wrote:
wrveres wrote:Out of curiosity ... exactly where is he going to be hitting these 40 homeruns next season?

Thome is still under contract, is he not?
and if Philly is going to trade Thome, they are going to have one hell of a time getting somebody to pick up an aging, injured stars contract, I would think


Good question. As of 2 days ago when I interviewed him for FOX29, GM Ed Wade still doesn't know the answer to that question. Though he did say that a situation like this gives us the luxury of having two very capable 1st baseman. That's GM lingo for I currently have my finger wedged in my pooper on this one. :-D


what do we have to do to get you to share your interviews here?
Is there copyright problems or something?
I would love to hear what Ed Wade has to say ... and Paul too ;-D
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