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Wright's value for next season?

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Postby TB13 » Fri Sep 09, 2005 4:58 pm

Wright is very, very good. However, IMO and only IMO, he's not in the class of MCab or ARam. If the latter did not get hurt, his numbers would be in line with last year. Wright will steal more, however I do not believe that his power #'s will be comprable to those two.
Keep in mind also that Blalock will become better as well. Given where he plays and in what lineup, he may put up better power numbers than Wright as well.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Sep 09, 2005 6:09 pm

TB13 wrote:Wright is very, very good. However, IMO and only IMO, he's not in the class of MCab or ARam. If the latter did not get hurt, his numbers would be in line with last year. Wright will steal more, however I do not believe that his power #'s will be comprable to those two.
Keep in mind also that Blalock will become better as well. Given where he plays and in what lineup, he may put up better power numbers than Wright as well.


He's most certainly "in the class" of MCab, unless you define the class so narrowly that it's meaningless. Mcab is ranked tenth overall, while Wright is 26th. If Wright had been hitting 3-5, rather than 6th and 7th all year, then the difference is narrowed about in half. If the player ranked 17th is not "in the class" of the player ranked 10th, then the classes are simply too narrowly drawn.

Yes, MCab will hit about 10 more HRs. And Wright will steal 15 more SBs. And, on the other fantasy stats, they are about the same, if they hit in about the same position.

ARam isn't even in the discussion. Saying, "If the latter does not get hurt..." is kind of like saying NO's a great town to visit these days, except for Katrina. He'll miss 15+ games every year from now on, is not likely to match Wright's average or SBs.

And you must be joking on Blalock. He's 2 years older, hits for 30 points less in BA (even though he's in a MUCH better hitting park), and can't steal at all. Look at Blalock's career stats away from Arlington.
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Postby TB13 » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:40 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:He's most certainly "in the class" of MCab, unless you define the class so narrowly that it's meaningless. Mcab is ranked tenth overall, while Wright is 26th. If Wright had been hitting 3-5, rather than 6th and 7th all year, then the difference is narrowed about in half. If the player ranked 17th is not "in the class" of the player ranked 10th, then the classes are simply too narrowly drawn.


I disagree. You are certainly free to have you opinion, however MCab's .332, 30 hrs, 104 rbi's & 96 runs stand out much more than Wright's .313, 21hrs, 88 rbi's 86 runs & 16 steals. At least they do to me. Also, MCab's slugging & OPS are basically 60 pts higher. I just think that MCab is the better hitter and will be for many years to come. Wright IS very, very good, but I feel that over the long haul, Miggy C. is just that much better. I could care less where Wright is batting, he is not going to be a .330 hitter. Miggy C will. Or so I think at least.

"ARam isn't even in the discussion. Saying, "If the latter does not get hurt..." is kind of like saying NO's a great town to visit these days, except for Katrina. He'll miss 15+ games every year from now on, is not likely to match Wright's average or SBs. "

Disagree again. ARam has been hurt all year with small nagging injuries, and despite that, he has still put up great numbers. There is no basis whatsoever to say that ARam will not match Wright's batting average. I think it is the other way around. I do not even think that we have see the best that ARam has to offer. Wright will have more steals, but he will not match ARam's power #'s.

And, no, I am not kidding on Blalock. He WILL improve and hits in a great park, surrounded by great hitters. Wright may be better than Hank in the future, but not by much.
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Postby lbbaseball14 » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:03 pm

I'd take him early 3rd round. He is amazing
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:46 pm

TB13 wrote:I disagree. You are certainly free to have you opinion, however MCab's .332, 30 hrs, 104 rbi's & 96 runs stand out much more than Wright's .313, 21hrs, 88 rbi's 86 runs & 16 steals. At least they do to me. Also, MCab's slugging & OPS are basically 60 pts higher. I just think that MCab is the better hitter and will be for many years to come. Wright IS very, very good, but I feel that over the long haul, Miggy C. is just that much better. I could care less where Wright is batting, he is not going to be a .330 hitter. Miggy C will. Or so I think at least.

"ARam isn't even in the discussion. Saying, "If the latter does not get hurt..." is kind of like saying NO's a great town to visit these days, except for Katrina. He'll miss 15+ games every year from now on, is not likely to match Wright's average or SBs. "

Disagree again. ARam has been hurt all year with small nagging injuries, and despite that, he has still put up great numbers. There is no basis whatsoever to say that ARam will not match Wright's batting average. I think it is the other way around. I do not even think that we have see the best that ARam has to offer. Wright will have more steals, but he will not match ARam's power #'s.

And, no, I am not kidding on Blalock. He WILL improve and hits in a great park, surrounded by great hitters. Wright may be better than Hank in the future, but not by much.


First of all, the big difference in runs and RBIs this year is solely due to batting order. Once Wright is batting 3rd -5th full time, as Miggy does, there will be absolutely no difference in those stats between these two players.

Miggy has the power advantage and will likely hit 7-12 more HRs.
Wright has the speed advantage and will likely steal 10-20 more bases.

In real baseball, the dingers are more important, but in fantasy baseball where SBs count the same as dingers and are harder to get, Wright's relative advantage there is very important.

On BA, the difference between them in career average and minor league performance is not significant at all. Neither player hit for a .330 average except for half a season in AA, when each hit over .360. In short, there's no reason to expect that either of these guys is likely to have a significant BA advantage of the other.

So, Miggy's having the better season this year, though at least in fantasy terms that advantage is partially due to Randolph's decision to give Wright fewer opportunities to drive in and score runs. Since that will change next year, Miggy's advantage will be smaller. In fantasy or real baseball terms, however, to describe Wright as not even in the same class is a gross exaggeration.

ARam is now 27 years old and in 3 of the last 4 seasons will have missed 15 or more games because of nagging injuries. His career BA is .277 and his top average is .318. When he was Wright's age he was batting around .260 and slugging .450. So, the basis for putting Wright significantly above him...

His age is at the point where most players have peaked and his numbers should be expected to plateau at best in the coming years.

His injury history suggests a player that is prone to nagging muscle pulls, a history which projects into more frequent and longer lasting injuries as he approaches and gets into his 30s.

Wright, with 4 additional years to develop, is already playing at or above ARam's level.

And, if you are unable to see the vast gulf between Blalock and Wright just by looking at the numbers, you need to get your vision checked.
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Postby bigh0rt » Sat Sep 10, 2005 8:23 pm

I'd take him as early as one of the top few 2nd round picks. He's going to give you great production at every single category. The kid is a phenom, and is only going to get better. How many other players are going to be giving you that kind of help in that many places, honestly?
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