No way, this kid's only going to get better. I knew it right from the start of the season... forget Piazza, Beltran, Floyd... I put my money on Wright any day.
baseball6791 wrote:I grabbed this guy LATE in my draft this year and let's just say that I'm very happy with that pick. As for next year, I see him going somewhere around the 3rd round in redraft leagues, and 2nd/possibly 1st in keepers. He's a guy with the ability to play 3B, hit 320+, hit 30+ homers, steal 20+ bases, and score and drive in 100+ runs/rbi. Next year I see his numbers being able to look something like:
3rd base is gonna be as deep as the ocean next year. Let's see now: Arod, MCab, Aram, Ensberg, Chavez, Blalock, Cantu, Glaus, Huff, Mora, Chipper, etc. Even persona non gratas like Beltre could find themselves back in the mix. I'd take Wright before a lot of those guys, but the sheer depth at 3B means that it would be foolish IMO to take Wright early, although I have no doubt many will.
I am the Master. Don't question the Master. Just do what he says and be proud.
baseball6791 wrote: I grabbed this guy LATE in my draft this year and let's just say that I'm very happy with that pick. As for next year, I see him going somewhere around the 3rd round in redraft leagues, and 2nd/possibly 1st in keepers. He's a guy with the ability to play 3B, hit 320+, hit 30+ homers, steal 20+ bases, and score and drive in 100+ runs/rbi. Next year I see his numbers being able to look something like:
.318 BA, 105 R, 112 RBI, 31 HR, 20 SB
Easily 3rd round numbers IMO.
Those are 1st Round numbers I think.
I wish my first rounders put up those type of numbers this year.
baseball6791 wrote:I grabbed this guy LATE in my draft this year and let's just say that I'm very happy with that pick. As for next year, I see him going somewhere around the 3rd round in redraft leagues, and 2nd/possibly 1st in keepers. He's a guy with the ability to play 3B, hit 320+, hit 30+ homers, steal 20+ bases, and score and drive in 100+ runs/rbi. Next year I see his numbers being able to look something like:
.318 BA, 105 R, 112 RBI, 31 HR, 20 SB
Easily 3rd round numbers IMO.
Those are 1st Round numbers I think.
They look like 1st round numbers to me also, but the key here is the words that I bolded - being able to. I think that he could very well end up with numbers that look like that but since he is still a young guy and we have pretty much nothing to base him on except this year (which, granted, was very good), many people may not be willing to take him (a less proven player) in the 1st round over a guy who has put up solid numbers for a while. Add to that the depth that will be there at 3rd base next year, and that is why I see him falling to the 2nd-3rd round. This is not meant to be any sort of knock against Wright (I absolutely love the kid), just what I believe will probably happen in next years drafts. Personally, I would take Wright over a lot of guys who have been mentioned for late 1st round such as Carp and DLee, and I would grab him if he was available in the 2nd/3rd in a heartbeat.
Wright will not be a very good value pick next year. As others have said, there will be far too many good third-baggers available much later. I also think he's overhyped, even if he has put up some nice numbers thus far. Sure, he's a good, youthful hitter, but all players were once young. That isn't to say that I think he'll have a bad season -- actually, I think he'll have a good season -- but for him to be worth taking in the second or third rounds, he'd have to put up numbers near the ceiling of reasonable projection. Just a little too optimistic to me.
Pedantic wrote:Wright will not be a very good value pick next year. As others have said, there will be far too many good third-baggers available much later. I also think he's overhyped, even if he has put up some nice numbers thus far. Sure, he's a good, youthful hitter, but all players were once young. That isn't to say that I think he'll have a bad season -- actually, I think he'll have a good season -- but for him to be worth taking in the second or third rounds, he'd have to put up numbers near the ceiling of reasonable projection. Just a little too optimistic to me.
He's easily becoming my favorite player, and I agree with everything you said here. This year I had him projected at around 20/20/100 roughly what he is performing - though I didn't think he'd hit as well as he has on average. I didn't like him in most leagues relative to where he was drafted (guess I tend to draft with a great deal of New Yawkers.) Next year, I'm sure he won't be on any of my teams, this year he was on 1/6.
Boy, I can't agree. You have to keep in mind that the numbers Wright has posted this year have been done while more than half his at bats have taken place batting 6th or 7th. In those 250+ ABs, he has just 41 Runs and 35 RBIs. By comparison, while batting fifth he's had 200 ABs and posted 41 Runs and 47 RBIs. Project him out for a full season batting 3rd, 4th or 5th (which is where he will be next year) and assume normal age related improvement and you have a 23 year old player who will hit 25+ HRs, 15+ SBs, bat over .310, and provide 110+ Runs and RBIs.
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Boy, I can't agree. You have to keep in mind that the numbers Wright has posted this year have been done while more than half his at bats have taken place batting 6th or 7th. In those 250+ ABs, he has just 41 Runs and 35 RBIs. By comparison, while batting fifth he's had 200 ABs and posted 41 Runs and 47 RBIs. Project him out for a full season batting 3rd, 4th or 5th (which is where he will be next year) and assume normal age related improvement and you have a 23 year old player who will hit 25+ HRs, 15+ SBs, bat over .310, and provide 110+ Runs and RBIs.
Nothing. I think your predictions are on the low side, since they assume no improvement in any category (except maybe HRs), despite the fact that he'll get 10-40 additional ABs by batting order change, not to mention that the batting order change should boost his run and RBI levels, or the fact that he's likely to improve because of age.
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by Coppermine » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:19 pm 
