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Postby Laean » Thu Sep 08, 2005 10:05 pm

b4 this season, i had him preranked 4th, behind only arod, vlad, and pujols (in that order). he's always been a 1st rounder.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Sep 09, 2005 6:51 am

Depends on where he plays. If he goes to a team/park that's in the bottom ten in run production (AZ, SEA, MINN, WASH, LA, PITT, SF, KC, HOUS, SD), you are talking about a 20% reduction in most counting stats just by that alone. That makes him an 80/80 run/RBI guy with a .250 or below BA. I don't think that's round 1 or 2 material, especially when you factor in age related decline and increasing potential for injury.

If he goes to the next tier of parks/teams, the reduction is only about 10% and he's still got a shot at being a 90/90 run RBI guy with strong HR/SB numbers and a .250 to .270 average.

Either way, I think you have to pay very close attention to where he ends up and where they will bat him. He's not likely to be a slam dunk round 1 player in the future.
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