NL CY = Carpenter - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

NL CY = Carpenter

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:53 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Sheff's Chef wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:Oh come on, Carpenter winning wouldnt be nearly as bad as when Clemens won in like 2000 because he had 20 wins, even though his ERA was in the high 3s, or when he won last year even though Randy Johnson was clearly superior.


Thank you. Johnson got the short end of the stick in favor of Clemens because Clemens' W-L. So I couldn't care less if the shoe is on the other foot this year.

And you could make an argument for Carpenter being closer to Clemens than Clemens was to Unit last year. For instance, the difference in WHIP favors Clemens by .06 where as last year RJ's was better by .26! Carpenter leads Clemens by 22 in the Ks department, where as RJ had 72 more. Clemens has walked 7 more batters than Carp in 24 less innings, RJ had 35 less in 31 more innings. The biggest one is Carpenter's 7 CGs and 4 shutouts to Clemens' single CG and 0 shutouts.

So those same voters who gave the Cy to Clemens better give this year's to Carpenter, otherwise something is very wrong.


What happened last year is moot. Shouldn't effect this year's vote at all. Just for the record, RJ had 5 more win shares then Clemens last year. Clemens has 6 more then Carpenter now. RJ beat Clemens by 8 in vorp last year. Clemens leads Carpenter by 6 in vorp now.

Carpenters more innings favor him, but it's not that big a lead, 24 innings. Clemens 6.8 per start is very good.

Clemens didn't win in 00, he won in 01. I would have voted Mussina Garcia over him, but it was close.

01 win shares

Mussina 20
Clemens 19
Garcia 18

01 vorp

Garcia 1st in AL
Mussina 3rd
Clemens 8th

My bad, I couldn't quite remember the year.
Image
CubsFan7724
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 6426
Joined: 19 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: AKA 34=Sweetness on FFC

Postby curious_george_43545 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:54 pm

mweir145 wrote:
Sheff's Chef wrote:I don't mean to sound ignorant, but I've never heard of VROP or win shares, what are they? I've never heard any writer, announcer, manager, pitcher, analyst talk about win shares. For me, it SOUNDS like over analysis of stats, but maybe I'm wrong.


Wikipedia wrote: Win shares considers statistics for players, in the context of their team, and assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. All pitching, hitting and defensive contributions by the player are taken into account. Statistics are adjusted for park, league and era.

A win share represents one-third of a team win, by definition. If a team won 80 games in a season, then its players will share 240 win shares. Players cannot be awarded negative win shares, by definition, however some critics of the system believe that negative win shares are necessary. In defense of the system, very few players in a season would amass a negative total, if it were possible.

The formula itself is extremely complicated and contains a great deal of arbitrary numbers and educated guesses. It is a top-down approach which starts with the number of games a team won, and then attempts to assign credit to players, proportionally based on their statistics. Pitching and defense contributions receive 52% of the win shares and hitting contributions receive 48% of the win shares.

Hitting contributions are based on runs created. An attempt is made to then decide what amount of the pitching credit goes to pitchers and what amount goes to fielders. The pitching contributions are based on runs prevented, the pitchers' analogue to runs created. Fielding contributions are based on a number of educated guesses and a selection of traditional defensive statistics.

Win shares differs from other sabermetric player rating metrics such as Total player rating and VORP in that it is based on team wins, not runs.

One criticism of this metric is that players who play for teams that win more games than expected, based on the Pythagorean expectation, receive more win shares than players whose team wins fewer games than expected. Since a team exceeding or falling short of its Pythagorean expectation is generally acknowledged as chance, some believe that credit should not be assigned purely based on team wins. However, team wins is the bedrock of the system, whose purpose is to assign credit for what happened. Win shares are intended to represent player value (what they were responsible for) rather than player ability (what the player's true skill level is).


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/gloss ... t&stat=186

and

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... .php?cid=3

are useful as well
Image
Go Braves!
curious_george_43545
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar

Posts: 5200
Joined: 27 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Ohio

Postby HOOTIE » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:16 pm

Sheff's Chef wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:What happened last year is moot. Shouldn't effect this year's vote at all.


Garbage. Absolute garbage. It's the same voters and a similar situation. They voted in favor of the guy with the nicer W-L over a guy who pitched better, they should show some consistency and do the same this year.

I don't mean to sound ignorant, but I've never heard of VROP or win shares, what are they? I've never heard any writer, announcer, manager, pitcher, analyst talk about win shares. For me, it SOUNDS like over analysis of stats, but maybe I'm wrong..


Last season's vote is moot. Totally different year, with different numbers, and candidates. The few years a closer won, did the writers go off the last year? Do you go off last year in any vote you partake in? The writer's also rotate mvp/cy votes, mvp 1 year, cy the next. While RJ should have won, it has no bearing this year. RJ did loss 14, and was barely 500. The writer's probably didn't want heat for that. Clemens hasn't lost 14, and has a nice winning %.

As far as WS and vorp, who really cares if those you mention talk about it. It exists.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15106
(Past Year: 303)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Sheff's Chef » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:36 pm

HOOTIE wrote:Last season's vote is moot. Totally different year, with different numbers, and candidates.


Yeah, but SIMILAR. You've got one pitcher who has clearly pitched amazing, and one who has pitched slightly worse but has a better W-L record. Admit it, don't admit it. I don't care. But they're almost mirror images of each other except for Clemens has a very nice ERA and less losses. The voters handed it to Clemens.

HOOTIE wrote:The few years a closer won, did the writers go off the last year?


I don't see the similarities.

HOOTIE wrote:Do you go off last year in any vote you partake in? The writer's also rotate mvp/cy votes, mvp 1 year, cy the next. While RJ should have won, it has no bearing this year. RJ did loss 14, and was barely 500. The writer's probably didn't want heat for that. Clemens hasn't lost 14, and has a nice winning %.


Johnson fell victim to playing for the worst team in the league, and got no run support. He also accounted for something like 1/3 of the D-Backs wins. He pitched great and lost or didn't factor into the decision. Roger has quite the similar problem this year when it comes to run support. But the point is, RJ got hosed in favor of an inferior Clemens. I just don't want to see the voters give Clemens another when it's practically the same situation as last year. Consistency is what I want.

HOOTIE wrote:As far as WS and vorp, who really cares if those you mention talk about it. It exists.


So since I said I've never heard of it and simply asked what it was, that means I don't think it exists? Umm, no. I was simply asking for some explaination of it(which someone gave, thank you mweir145). But thanks for going on the defensive. ;-D
Sheff's Chef
Little League Legend
Little League Legend

User avatar

Posts: 15
Joined: 9 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:04 pm

Sheff's Chef wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:Last season's vote is moot. Totally different year, with different numbers, and candidates.

But the point is, RJ got hosed in favor of an inferior Clemens. I just don't want to see the voters give Clemens another when it's practically the same situation as last year. Consistency is what I want.


RJ got hosed, in he was the best pitcher. But i can see the writer's being hesistant on giving it to a .500 pitcher with 14 losses. Clemens has a nice .647 win %, with nothing close to 14 losses (6). Those aren't similiar numbers. You won't get consistency. Dawson won on a losing team. Closers win here and there. How many years was Arod hosed, yet won one in Texas on a 71-91 team, and stat wise was Arod's 5th best season. The writer's switch off every year. Last year's cy voters have the mvp this year, etc.

We disagree. Last year is done. Different candidates, different numbers., different scenerios. Clemens has a better chance of winning then RJ did because of his win% and only 6 losses. If Clemens wins, it won't be a sham, just because RJ lost in 04.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15106
(Past Year: 303)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Sheff's Chef » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:37 am

HOOTIE wrote:RJ got hosed, in he was the best pitcher. But i can see the writer's being hesistant on giving it to a .500 pitcher with 14 losses. Clemens has a nice .647 win %, with nothing close to 14 losses (6). Those aren't similiar numbers. You won't get consistency. Dawson won on a losing team. Closers win here and there. How many years was Arod hosed, yet won one in Texas on a 71-91 team, and stat wise was Arod's 5th best season. The writer's switch off every year. Last year's cy voters have the mvp this year, etc.


Come on buddy, thats what I'm saying. Clemens didn't win on anything other than his W-L record. He won because his team scored for him and RJ's didn't. Now if they're going to make it about wins and losses, Clemens' have gone down and Carpenter's winning percentage is better than Clemens' was, and much better than Clemens' is now.

HOOTIE wrote:We disagree. Last year is done. Different candidates, different numbers., different scenerios. Clemens has a better chance of winning then RJ did because of his win% and only 6 losses.


I find it funny that you still don't admit that it's a similar situation. Because thats my whole argument.

HOOTIE wrote:If Clemens wins, it won't be a sham, just because RJ lost in 04.


Why not? One year Clemens has worse statistics than someone, but wins on W-L record. The next he has a worse W-L record, but wins it based on overall stats? If thats the case what does Clemens have to do to LOSE the Cy?

Clemens won on W-L last year, now his lack of wins and not exactly great winning % is completely irrelevant and ignored? Sounds like a sham to me.
Sheff's Chef
Little League Legend
Little League Legend

User avatar

Posts: 15
Joined: 9 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:38 am

Sheff's Chef wrote:I find it funny that you still don't admit that it's a similar situation. Because thats my whole argument.

Clemens won on W-L last year, now his lack of wins and not exactly great winning % is completely irrelevant and ignored? Sounds like a sham to me.


It's not similiar stat wise. If the stats were nearly identical, then yes. But 14 losses is a long way from 6. And a .647 win % from RJ's .533.

And how exactly is a .647 win % not exactly great?
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15106
(Past Year: 303)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Sheff's Chef » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:02 am

HOOTIE wrote:It's not similiar stat wise. If the stats were nearly identical, then yes. But 14 losses is a long way from 6. And a .647 win % from RJ's .533.


Honestly, have you listen to anything I've posted?

"Clemens has worse statistics than someone, but wins on W-L record"

I've tried to make it pretty clear that I'm seperating of W-L and the actual pitching stats. You know, WHIP, BAA, ERA, etc. The things(for the most part) pitchers can control. They have little, if any, control over run support. Heck, this has been my point since I first posted in this thread and you're still missing it.

STAT-wise Carpenter is pretty close to Clemens, but RJ beat Clemens in every facet of PITCHING regardless of whether or not his team got him the W. I'll even quote my first post:

Sheff's Chef wrote:the difference in WHIP favors Clemens by .06 where as last year RJ's was better by .26! Carpenter leads Clemens by 22 in the Ks department, where as RJ had 72 more. Clemens has walked 7 more batters than Carp in 24 less innings, RJ had 35 less in 31 more innings. The biggest one is Carpenter's 7 CGs and 4 shutouts to Clemens' single CG and 0 shutouts.



HOOTIE wrote:And how exactly is a .647 win % not exactly great?


Possibly in comparison to Carpenter's 83.3%? 64.7 isn't great. There's 12 pitchers in the NL with about as good, if not better, %s not including Carpenter. Fact is, last year Johnson had 10 more losses and 2 less wins. This year Clemens currently has 9 less wins and 2 more losses. I'd say thats a pretty similar difference in the W-L department. And Carpenter beats Clemens' win % about as easily as Clemens did RJ's.

As bad as 10 more losses may look, I think having 12 or 13 less Ws may(and should) look just as bad.
Sheff's Chef
Little League Legend
Little League Legend

User avatar

Posts: 15
Joined: 9 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby CarpMart » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:15 pm

I believe Carpenter will win it. I don't think the media has really talked about why Carpenter is so good. As a Cards fan, I get to see him win games in dominating fashion.
IN PRONGER WE TRUST
CarpMart
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 27
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Hockey

Postby Laean » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:38 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Sheff's Chef wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:What happened last year is moot. Shouldn't effect this year's vote at all.


Garbage. Absolute garbage. It's the same voters and a similar situation. They voted in favor of the guy with the nicer W-L over a guy who pitched better, they should show some consistency and do the same this year.

I don't mean to sound ignorant, but I've never heard of VROP or win shares, what are they? I've never heard any writer, announcer, manager, pitcher, analyst talk about win shares. For me, it SOUNDS like over analysis of stats, but maybe I'm wrong..


Last season's vote is moot. Totally different year, with different numbers, and candidates. The few years a closer won, did the writers go off the last year? Do you go off last year in any vote you partake in? The writer's also rotate mvp/cy votes, mvp 1 year, cy the next. While RJ should have won, it has no bearing this year. RJ did loss 14, and was barely 500. The writer's probably didn't want heat for that. Clemens hasn't lost 14, and has a nice winning %.

As far as WS and vorp, who really cares if those you mention talk about it. It exists.


regardless of the year, people, numbers, etc involved, the factors that they give points for (i.e. the test) have to stay consistent year after year. if it doesn't, then it just becomes random/arbitrary/biased/subjective/etc. it's absolutely ridiculous for the decision makers to say in 2004 we'll give more weight to W-L, while in 2005 we'll give more weight to the ERA.
Laean
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2595
Joined: 16 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: apz, francisst60, lizyg3, nanniehl18 and 12 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Apr. 18
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Cleveland
(2:20 pm)
LA Angels at Detroit
(7:05 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Miami at Miami
(7:08 pm)
indoors
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Seattle
(7:10 pm)
Atlanta at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Baltimore at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Chi White Sox at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Philadelphia at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(10:05 pm)
Arizona at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact