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NL CY = Carpenter

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Postby Laean » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:36 pm

RAmst23 wrote:Yes Clemens has the lower ERA, but I think this award can still go to Carpenter without too much fuss.

This year Carpenter has 7 Complete games, 4 of which are Shutouts. Clemens has 1 Complete game, no shutouts. Per game pitched this year, Carpenter on average pitches one inning more per game.

Also, Carpenter has a better K/BB ratio than Clemens along with 30 more innings pitched (roughly). So yes a 1.57 ERA is fantastic, but Carpenter has some great supporting statistics too.


great analysis.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:37 pm

Red Stripe wrote:You know its going to be Carp. You all know how the voters think, they think 20 Wins is like incredible and probably think thats a better achievement than a 1.57 ERA. Clemens should most definitely win and if he got the run support Carp does hed have more than 20 wins and less than 4 losses probably. But the voters put way too much emphasis on W-L records than the more important stats.

Oh come on, Carpenter winning wouldnt be nearly as bad as when Clemens won in like 2000 because he had 20 wins, even though his ERA was in the high 3s, or when he won last year even though Randy Johnson was clearly superior.
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Postby pokerplaya » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:51 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:
Red Stripe wrote:You know its going to be Carp. You all know how the voters think, they think 20 Wins is like incredible and probably think thats a better achievement than a 1.57 ERA. Clemens should most definitely win and if he got the run support Carp does hed have more than 20 wins and less than 4 losses probably. But the voters put way too much emphasis on W-L records than the more important stats.

Oh come on, Carpenter winning wouldnt be nearly as bad as when Clemens won in like 2000 because he had 20 wins, even though his ERA was in the high 3s, or when he won last year even though Randy Johnson was clearly superior.


Good points.
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Postby da1chipo » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:57 pm

Clemens can beat Carpenter and then give last year's award to Randy.
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Postby Red Stripe » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:26 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:
Red Stripe wrote:You know its going to be Carp. You all know how the voters think, they think 20 Wins is like incredible and probably think thats a better achievement than a 1.57 ERA. Clemens should most definitely win and if he got the run support Carp does hed have more than 20 wins and less than 4 losses probably. But the voters put way too much emphasis on W-L records than the more important stats.

Oh come on, Carpenter winning wouldnt be nearly as bad as when Clemens won in like 2000 because he had 20 wins, even though his ERA was in the high 3s, or when he won last year even though Randy Johnson was clearly superior.


Im not saying it would be bad and Im not saying that he hasn't had a great Cy Young type season and I know the situation is nothing like those seasons. Im saying Clemens is the better pitcher this year but his numbers are skewed so much by something he can't control that he'll probably end up losing it. No doubt Carp has been great and had a Cy young worthy season, but Clemens has been better.
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Postby Sheff's Chef » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:45 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:Oh come on, Carpenter winning wouldnt be nearly as bad as when Clemens won in like 2000 because he had 20 wins, even though his ERA was in the high 3s, or when he won last year even though Randy Johnson was clearly superior.


Thank you. Johnson got the short end of the stick in favor of Clemens because Clemens' W-L. So I couldn't care less if the shoe is on the other foot this year.

And you could make an argument for Carpenter being closer to Clemens than Clemens was to Unit last year. For instance, the difference in WHIP favors Clemens by .06 where as last year RJ's was better by .26! Carpenter leads Clemens by 22 in the Ks department, where as RJ had 72 more. Clemens has walked 7 more batters than Carp in 24 less innings, RJ had 35 less in 31 more innings. The biggest one is Carpenter's 7 CGs and 4 shutouts to Clemens' single CG and 0 shutouts.

So those same voters who gave the Cy to Clemens better give this year's to Carpenter, otherwise something is very wrong.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:52 pm

Sheff's Chef wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:Oh come on, Carpenter winning wouldnt be nearly as bad as when Clemens won in like 2000 because he had 20 wins, even though his ERA was in the high 3s, or when he won last year even though Randy Johnson was clearly superior.


Thank you. Johnson got the short end of the stick in favor of Clemens because Clemens' W-L. So I couldn't care less if the shoe is on the other foot this year.

And you could make an argument for Carpenter being closer to Clemens than Clemens was to Unit last year. For instance, the difference in WHIP favors Clemens by .06 where as last year RJ's was better by .26! Carpenter leads Clemens by 22 in the Ks department, where as RJ had 72 more. Clemens has walked 7 more batters than Carp in 24 less innings, RJ had 35 less in 31 more innings. The biggest one is Carpenter's 7 CGs and 4 shutouts to Clemens' single CG and 0 shutouts.

So those same voters who gave the Cy to Clemens better give this year's to Carpenter, otherwise something is very wrong.


What happened last year is moot. Shouldn't effect this year's vote at all. Just for the record, RJ had 5 more win shares then Clemens last year. Clemens has 6 more then Carpenter now. RJ beat Clemens by 8 in vorp last year. Clemens leads Carpenter by 6 in vorp now.

Carpenters more innings favor him, but it's not that big a lead, 24 innings. Clemens 6.8 per start is very good.

Clemens didn't win in 00, he won in 01. I would have voted Mussina Garcia over him, but it was close.

01 win shares

Mussina 20
Clemens 19
Garcia 18

01 vorp

Garcia 1st in AL
Mussina 3rd
Clemens 8th
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Postby Sheff's Chef » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:25 pm

HOOTIE wrote:What happened last year is moot. Shouldn't effect this year's vote at all.


Garbage. Absolute garbage. It's the same voters and a similar situation. They voted in favor of the guy with the nicer W-L over a guy who pitched better, they should show some consistency and do the same this year.

HOOTIE wrote:Just for the record, RJ had 5 more win shares then Clemens last year. Clemens has 6 more then Carpenter now. RJ beat Clemens by 8 in vorp last year. Clemens leads Carpenter by 6 in vorp now.

Carpenters more innings favor him, but it's not that big a lead, 24 innings. Clemens 6.8 per start is very good.

Clemens didn't win in 00, he won in 01. I would have voted Mussina Garcia over him, but it was close.

01 win shares

Mussina 20
Clemens 19
Garcia 18

01 vorp

Garcia 1st in AL
Mussina 3rd
Clemens 8th


I don't mean to sound ignorant, but I've never heard of VROP or win shares, what are they? I've never heard any writer, announcer, manager, pitcher, analyst talk about win shares. For me, it SOUNDS like over analysis of stats, but maybe I'm wrong.

Also, while Clemens' 6.8 isn't bad, Carpenter almost averages an inning more. And I like my pitchers to eat up innings and finish games, but maybe some don't put as much importance on it as I do.
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Postby mweir145 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:34 pm

I believe Carpenter should win the NL Cy Young, and he undoubtably will if he keeps this season going.
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Postby mweir145 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:36 pm

Sheff's Chef wrote:I don't mean to sound ignorant, but I've never heard of VROP or win shares, what are they? I've never heard any writer, announcer, manager, pitcher, analyst talk about win shares. For me, it SOUNDS like over analysis of stats, but maybe I'm wrong.


Wikipedia wrote: Win shares considers statistics for players, in the context of their team, and assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. All pitching, hitting and defensive contributions by the player are taken into account. Statistics are adjusted for park, league and era.

A win share represents one-third of a team win, by definition. If a team won 80 games in a season, then its players will share 240 win shares. Players cannot be awarded negative win shares, by definition, however some critics of the system believe that negative win shares are necessary. In defense of the system, very few players in a season would amass a negative total, if it were possible.

The formula itself is extremely complicated and contains a great deal of arbitrary numbers and educated guesses. It is a top-down approach which starts with the number of games a team won, and then attempts to assign credit to players, proportionally based on their statistics. Pitching and defense contributions receive 52% of the win shares and hitting contributions receive 48% of the win shares.

Hitting contributions are based on runs created. An attempt is made to then decide what amount of the pitching credit goes to pitchers and what amount goes to fielders. The pitching contributions are based on runs prevented, the pitchers' analogue to runs created. Fielding contributions are based on a number of educated guesses and a selection of traditional defensive statistics.

Win shares differs from other sabermetric player rating metrics such as Total player rating and VORP in that it is based on team wins, not runs.

One criticism of this metric is that players who play for teams that win more games than expected, based on the Pythagorean expectation, receive more win shares than players whose team wins fewer games than expected. Since a team exceeding or falling short of its Pythagorean expectation is generally acknowledged as chance, some believe that credit should not be assigned purely based on team wins. However, team wins is the bedrock of the system, whose purpose is to assign credit for what happened. Win shares are intended to represent player value (what they were responsible for) rather than player ability (what the player's true skill level is).
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