I think that for the most part he will return to his numbers from past years, and I don't plan on touching him unless he falls past the first 3 rounds or so, although he will probably be gone by then. I don't think that his numbers will come anywhere close to Pujols, Tex, Ortiz level ever again after this year. Those 3 guys should go first round, while I see Lee going somewhere in the 2nd round.
by JustAnotherYanksFan » Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:27 am
It's hard to say. I guess a comparable guy from last year is Beltre, who also came out of nowhere to have a monster year. But there are a few differences between Lee and Beltre. For one thing, Lee's ranked #1, and Beltre was #6. Five places may not seem like a huge difference, but it's a lot harder to ignore the guy who was the absolute best player in the league. Also, Beltre switched leagues and moved to a pitcher-friendly ballpark, whereas Lee is staying put.
But the most important difference between these guys is their floors. Before this year, Beltre was a guy who hit .240 with 20-25 HR. In other words, if he busted, he was going to be absolutely useless. And of course, that seems to be exactly what's happened. But Lee's always been a guy who can hit .280 with 30 HR, 100 RBI and about 15 SB. So the risk is a lot lower.
In most of the drafts I saw, Beltre went in the second round. So based on everything I've said, I think there's no doubt that Lee's going in the first round next year. I'd say that Pujols, A-Rod, and Vlad are pretty good bets for the top 3, but after that, all bets are off. And I'd like to be able to say that I personally won't take Lee until the third or fourth round. But which guys would I really take ahead of him? Probably Soriano, Miguel Cabrera, Tex, and Tejada. Unfortunately, that's not a very long list; the trouble is that there are some aging stars who I don't necessarily trust to keep it up forever (Manny Ramirez, Sheffield, etc.), and there are some guys who I'm just afraid to draft early because I don't trust them to repeat their numbers from this year (Andruw Jones, Morgan Ensberg, Brian Roberts, etc.).
Tentatively, this is about what I'd expect a typical first round to look like next year in a 14-team league:
4. Miguel Cabrera
6. Derrek Lee
11. David Ortiz
Obviously I have no way of knowing if this is accurate, and this probably isn't the order that I would personally draft in, but this is roughly what I see the first round looking like. So basically, I'd predict that Lee will go somewhere in the middle of the first round. To answer your question, he'll go after Pujols, close to Tex, and probably (but not definitely) before Ortiz.
i will look more to his post all star break numbers, then i will his pre all star break numbers... he will still be a viable option at 1b for a fantasy team,,, but he will not be worth that first round pick like many will take him at.....
Before rushing to judgement on Lee for 2006, wait to see what the Cubs do in the offseason to bolster (or not bolster) their lineup. I believe that part of what we're seeing in Lee's 2nd half dip is the Cubs' inability to get on base for him and pitcher's being more careful with him ... pitching around him more. So let's wait and see.