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Derrek Lee in 2006

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Derrek Lee in 2006

Postby Webster11 » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:03 pm

What do you see his final stats looking like? Close to this years or a return to his previous seasons? Where will he rank in comparison to Pujols, Ortiz and Teixiera?
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Postby baseball6791 » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:25 pm

I think that for the most part he will return to his numbers from past years, and I don't plan on touching him unless he falls past the first 3 rounds or so, although he will probably be gone by then. I don't think that his numbers will come anywhere close to Pujols, Tex, Ortiz level ever again after this year. Those 3 guys should go first round, while I see Lee going somewhere in the 2nd round.
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Postby JustAnotherYanksFan » Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:27 am

It's hard to say. I guess a comparable guy from last year is Beltre, who also came out of nowhere to have a monster year. But there are a few differences between Lee and Beltre. For one thing, Lee's ranked #1, and Beltre was #6. Five places may not seem like a huge difference, but it's a lot harder to ignore the guy who was the absolute best player in the league. Also, Beltre switched leagues and moved to a pitcher-friendly ballpark, whereas Lee is staying put.

But the most important difference between these guys is their floors. Before this year, Beltre was a guy who hit .240 with 20-25 HR. In other words, if he busted, he was going to be absolutely useless. And of course, that seems to be exactly what's happened. But Lee's always been a guy who can hit .280 with 30 HR, 100 RBI and about 15 SB. So the risk is a lot lower.

In most of the drafts I saw, Beltre went in the second round. So based on everything I've said, I think there's no doubt that Lee's going in the first round next year. I'd say that Pujols, A-Rod, and Vlad are pretty good bets for the top 3, but after that, all bets are off. And I'd like to be able to say that I personally won't take Lee until the third or fourth round. But which guys would I really take ahead of him? Probably Soriano, Miguel Cabrera, Tex, and Tejada. Unfortunately, that's not a very long list; the trouble is that there are some aging stars who I don't necessarily trust to keep it up forever (Manny Ramirez, Sheffield, etc.), and there are some guys who I'm just afraid to draft early because I don't trust them to repeat their numbers from this year (Andruw Jones, Morgan Ensberg, Brian Roberts, etc.).

Tentatively, this is about what I'd expect a typical first round to look like next year in a 14-team league:

1. Pujols
2. A-Rod
3. Vlad
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Soriano
6. Derrek Lee
7. Carpenter
8. Tex
9. Santana
10. Manny
11. David Ortiz
12. Abreu
13. Pedro
14. Tejada

Obviously I have no way of knowing if this is accurate, and this probably isn't the order that I would personally draft in, but this is roughly what I see the first round looking like. So basically, I'd predict that Lee will go somewhere in the middle of the first round. To answer your question, he'll go after Pujols, close to Tex, and probably (but not definitely) before Ortiz.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:26 am

Just a note, Lee's average has gone from 394 to 344. His splits are

1st half 1.186 OPS
2nd half .962 OPS

He's regressing a bit more of what to expect.
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Postby BaseballFann0008 » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:19 am

adrian beltre
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Postby prhood » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:21 am

Of some interest are his stats pre and post all-star game

PRE: 84 G, 315 AB, 69 R, 119 H, 27 Hr, 72 RBI, 10 SB. .378 BA
POST: 47 G, 179 AB, 35 R, 51 H, 12 Hr, 23 RBI, 5 SB, .285 BA

I think the post all-star level of performance is what you could expect in 2006 (pro-rated of course). Still pretty damn good and among the best at the position.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:57 am

i will look more to his post all star break numbers, then i will his pre all star break numbers... he will still be a viable option at 1b for a fantasy team,,, but he will not be worth that first round pick like many will take him at.....
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Postby bronxxbomber » Sun Sep 04, 2005 11:33 am

HOOTIE wrote:Just a note, Lee's average has gone from 394 to 344. His splits are

1st half 1.186 OPS
2nd half .962 OPS

He's regressing a bit more of what to expect.


So his OPS fell to a dash under 1k it's still incredible.
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Postby rlee » Sun Sep 04, 2005 11:58 am

Before rushing to judgement on Lee for 2006, wait to see what the Cubs do in the offseason to bolster (or not bolster) their lineup. I believe that part of what we're seeing in Lee's 2nd half dip is the Cubs' inability to get on base for him and pitcher's being more careful with him ... pitching around him more. So let's wait and see.
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Postby cordscords » Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:11 pm

I think you have to go somewhere near the middle.

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