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Well, it's over.

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Postby quietstorm » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:29 am

It's not a lack of confidence, but an admission that when you've got a two-week playoff, luck DOES play a large role in it. My team's not got holes. I've got Pedro, Felix, Billy Wagner, and Chad Cordero pitching. It's an eight-team league, but I've got Helton, Iguchi, F. Lopez, Mauer, Hafner, Dunn, Manny, Damon, Andruw, Renteria. I've got a ridiculously good lineup.

And if you want the final standings...

Quiet Storm 0.492 2180 1970 210
Super BKN’s 0.556 1983 1885 98
Magik7’s 0.532 2022 1924 98
Cooperstown Wannabees 0.508 1952 1954 -2
Rivals 0.540 1890 1899 -9
Doomsday 0.508 1795 1863 -68
Mighty Crabs 0.524 1857 1954 -97
Chico’s Bail Bonds 0.355 1636 2001 -365

You'll have to figure out what lines up where, I'm too tired to line everything up properly. It's ranked by point differential. We had a lot of really close teams and one way behind. (And, yes, I realize there's a problem with the point totals -- there are about 150 points extra scattered about the points against. I think it's a result of the commish accidentally scoring two series twice.)

I just had the misfortune of having my players all do well on the same days, so as to crush my opponents when I did win.

I had the best team. I still do. I'm confident in that. PECOTA had me pegged as scoring about 20% more than my competition, bench included -- and roughly this amount more, based on starters alone. And with Felix, Felipe Lopez, Iguchi, Bedard, Jae Weong Seo, etc. as in-season pick-ups, I don't think I did a bad job with those, either.

I just had one of those few years where luck really DID play a part. You're right. It's rare that it plays a big role over a full season. But rare != impossible.

[Edit: Apollo, my stats are based on starters alone. Note, I outscored my competition significantly. 7.25%, to be precise. It wasn't the playoffs. If this were a roto or points (non-H2H) league, I would have won. As I noted, half the time, I was losing to a team and would have had a winning record against everybody else in that given week. That's just crappy luck. ;)]
Your wisemen don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick...
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Postby josebach » Sun Sep 04, 2005 7:03 am

rainman23 wrote:Luck is definitely overrated in H2H. Yeah, on a weekly basis you can win or lose when you don't deserve to. But over the long haul, the entire season, these things are going to tend to even out. If a guy loses week after week when he doesn't "deserve" to, then the guys he drafted are under-achieving, or wracked with injuries, or both. And that same team isn't going to be doing real well in Roto, either.

Frankly, I'd like to hear more about the numbers from the original poster. To be as dominant as he's suggesting he was, but to finish near the bottom...wow, that's statistically bizarre. And his numbers were that good...but he's got zero confidence going into the playoffs? I gotta think he knows his team has some holes.

I like both formats. But as long as Roto leagues don't do playoffs, it's kind of a no-brainer for me. Some of you guys may be having heated races for the title in your Roto league. But my bet is you've got about 8 other managers who have moved on to fantasy football, because their season is long over.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Good post!!! ;-D

H2H is more like real baseball. How exciting would 162 game MLB season be if the winner of the league was the one with the best all around statistics? No division series. :-t No pennant race. :-t No World Series. :-t

No brainer. ;-D
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Postby rainman23 » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:44 am

I've never played in a Points league, so I have no idea how a crappy scoring system can screw up an otherwise good league. I imagine the impact could be enormous. That's the Points, though, not H2H. And it could make the final results in Roto just as bogus.

It does sound like you've had some bad luck, Jose. And I'll take your word for it that you've got the best team. Frankly, though, your team doesn't look that overwhelming for an 8-team league. From the names you've shown, I prefer my lineup in our 12 team league.
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Postby quietstorm » Sun Sep 04, 2005 3:23 pm

I could give you the rosters, if you wanted. The point system is a relic from the early 90s, so it's got holes -- the most notable being no walks and no strikeouts for pitchers (which I've been petitioning to add every year).
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