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Prior washed up?

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Postby BaseballFann0008 » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:37 am

hes still recovering and while hes not 100% healthy he wont be as dominant as he is at a full 100%
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Postby Kingctb27 » Sun Sep 04, 2005 11:08 am

Dude, he's like 23.
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:31 pm

As much as you guys want to bash Baker, you should realize though that Prior's not gonna get you the W's to make him an elite/stud SP in fantasy if he can't go 110-120 pitches in most games. The Cubs offense and bullpen just suck too much for Prior to win by going only 6 innings at a time. It's not easy to K a ton and still last deep into the game to get that W.

No, I'm not a fan of Baker's nor a fan of high pitch counts, but those are the facts of life for a Cubbie.
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Postby davidmarver » Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:52 pm

Yeah, he's washed up. I guess his only choice now is to return home to San Diego where we'll give him a warm welcome, even though his stuff is completely gone.

Please? O:-)
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Sep 04, 2005 2:06 pm

BobbyRoberto wrote:
Pitchers are so erratic that using premium picks for them at this point is dubious at best. I know I will not pick any SP top 4 rounds now save for maybe Santana. None of them can be trusted. RJ (lousy), Ol. Perez (horrible), Schilling (horrible), Schmidt (lousy), Hudson (below avg), Beckett (blister boy strikes again), Sheets (hurt), CZam (win count is down) have all dissappointed to some degree. Why draft any pitcher high in a draft at this point? It is rolling the dice with important core picks. The number of high round SPs that have not been a mess you can count on 1 hand with fingers remaining.


There's a lot of truth to what you're saying.

The starting pitchers taken in the first 4 rounds of my draft:

1st round (6th pick)--Randy Johnson Could be injury, could be age. I didn't advocate taking him in the first anyway.
1st round (10th pick)--Johan Santana
2nd round (18th pick)--Jason Schmidt There were red flags all around with this guy. He's been injury prone his career since his days in PIT/ATL and Alou puts him on insane pitch counts. He was on my "don't draft" list this year.
3rd round (27th pick)--Pedro Martinez
3rd round (28th pick)--Roy Oswalt
3rd round (29th pick)--Tim Hudson Just hasn't been himself.
4th round (33rd pick)--Ben Sheets His first injury was not of the normal type and more of a freak occurrence (the virus). The upper back thing is only going to affect one month. He'll have tremendous value next year.
4th round (34th pick)--Mark Prior Risk/reward
4th round (36th pick)--Carlos Zambrano C-Zam's been good. I'd advocate not taking him high next year due to insane PCs at this young age, but he has nearly as much reward as Prior.
4th round (37th pick)--Curt Schilling
4th round (39th pick)--Roger Clemens

Santana, Pedro, Oswalt, and Clemens have been good this year. That's 4 out of 11 guys taken in the first 4 rounds.

And there are numerous guys who were either drafted late (Dontrelle Willis--15th round) or undrafted (Jon Garland) who have done well. In my experience, there always seems to be pitchers to pick up.

That being said, I still like Prior. Not that he should be taken too high, but if he appears undervalued when I'm drafting next year, I'll take him in a heartbeat (especially if Dusty Baker is replaced as Cubs' manager).


Comments above. You have to be cautious when drafting SPs for sure, but there's good value in there.

And no, Prior's not washed up. He has the potential to be the best in the game if he can stay healthy.
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Postby The Jury » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:05 pm

Knicks4ever wrote:prior is no where near washed up he is one of the best yound pitchers in baseball


The point is that he hasn't been showing it (this year)... He's given up 3 ER or more every game for a long while...
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Postby Vetterstrom » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:01 pm

The Jury wrote:
Knicks4ever wrote:prior is no where near washed up he is one of the best yound pitchers in baseball


The point is that he hasn't been showing it (this year)... He's given up 3 ER or more every game for a long while...


Note that the "long while" started immediately following month-long return from a compression fracture in his pitching elbow. I think it should be expected following an injury like that, he wouldn't be back to 100% by seasons end regardless of when he returned. Also, look at his pre-line drive stats. His era was 2.9 something with more than a K per inning. Also note that his era was incredibly inflated by 1 poor inning. IMO, if he hadn't been hit with the line drive he'd be having the season we all know he's capable of having.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:16 pm

Sultans of Squat wrote:As much as you guys want to bash Baker, you should realize though that Prior's not gonna get you the W's to make him an elite/stud SP in fantasy if he can't go 110-120 pitches in most games. The Cubs offense and bullpen just suck too much for Prior to win by going only 6 innings at a time. It's not easy to K a ton and still last deep into the game to get that W.

No, I'm not a fan of Baker's nor a fan of high pitch counts, but those are the facts of life for a Cubbie.

He got 18 wins in 03, and thats when he went on the DL after colliding with Marcus Giles...
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:17 am

CubsFan7724 wrote:
Sultans of Squat wrote:As much as you guys want to bash Baker, you should realize though that Prior's not gonna get you the W's to make him an elite/stud SP in fantasy if he can't go 110-120 pitches in most games. The Cubs offense and bullpen just suck too much for Prior to win by going only 6 innings at a time. It's not easy to K a ton and still last deep into the game to get that W.

No, I'm not a fan of Baker's nor a fan of high pitch counts, but those are the facts of life for a Cubbie.

He got 18 wins in 03, and thats when he went on the DL after colliding with Marcus Giles...


And your point? Yes, he won 18 that year, but he didn't do it by going just 6 innings at a time. His average IP and pitch count that year were ~7 IP/G and ~113 pitches/G. That falls right in line w/ what I was pointing out.
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