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Postby Yoda » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:00 pm

EnFuego wrote:
TB13 wrote:
theclefe wrote: but he is the best rookie pitcher behind Duke this season


I could have sworn that some guy named Felix is claiming the top "rookie" pitcher slot.


It's a understanding here that Felix is a 10 year veteran with the way he is pitching right now and not a rookie. :-D


God I can't wait until Felix blows up... ;-7
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Postby theclefe » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:28 pm

TB13 wrote:
theclefe wrote: but he is the best rookie pitcher behind Duke this season


I could have sworn that some guy named Felix is claiming the top "rookie" pitcher slot.


It is Duke until I say so... or Felix gets another 4 wins. King Felix's ERA has been steadily climbing since his second start, so lets not get ahead of ourselves.
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Postby EnFuego » Wed Aug 31, 2005 5:57 pm

Yoda wrote:
EnFuego wrote:
TB13 wrote:
theclefe wrote: but he is the best rookie pitcher behind Duke this season


I could have sworn that some guy named Felix is claiming the top "rookie" pitcher slot.


It's a understanding here that Felix is a 10 year veteran with the way he is pitching right now and not a rookie. :-D


God I can't wait until Felix blows up... ;-7


NEVER. :-b
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:45 pm

theclefe wrote:
TB13 wrote:
theclefe wrote: but he is the best rookie pitcher behind Duke this season


I could have sworn that some guy named Felix is claiming the top "rookie" pitcher slot.


It is Duke until I say so... or Felix gets another 4 wins. King Felix's ERA has been steadily climbing since his second start, so lets not get ahead of ourselves.


Wins suck as a measure of pitcher quality, so the number of wins these two have is irrelevant.

After that second start, Felix's ERA was 0.69, so it has "steadily climbed" to an astronomical 1.75 (sort of like Duke's climbed too before he got DL'd).

Let's get to some real comparisons:
WHIP 0.75 versus 1.17
K/9 9.5 versus 6.6
K/BB 7.6 versus 2.75
BAA .178 versus .243
OPSA .447 versus .632

You can say anything you want. The numbers don't lie.
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Postby theclefe » Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:34 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
theclefe wrote:
TB13 wrote:
theclefe wrote: but he is the best rookie pitcher behind Duke this season


I could have sworn that some guy named Felix is claiming the top "rookie" pitcher slot.


It is Duke until I say so... or Felix gets another 4 wins. King Felix's ERA has been steadily climbing since his second start, so lets not get ahead of ourselves.


Wins suck as a measure of pitcher quality, so the number of wins these two have is irrelevant.

After that second start, Felix's ERA was 0.69, so it has "steadily climbed" to an astronomical 1.75 (sort of like Duke's climbed too before he got DL'd).

Let's get to some real comparisons:
WHIP 0.75 versus 1.17
K/9 9.5 versus 6.6
K/BB 7.6 versus 2.75
BAA .178 versus .243
OPSA .447 versus .632

You can say anything you want. The numbers don't lie.


Numbers don't lie... nor does a flashy car driven by an old man.

Wins do not suck when measuring a pitcher, but regardless I was using it to show Hernandez sample is still much smaller than Duke's. Duke actually pitched 9 shutout innings before going on the DL, bringing his ERA from 2.13 to 1.81. Duke has pitched in four games were he hasn't given up a run. The King has pitched in five games total, only one runless.

Those aren't real comparisons when one pitcher has only a handful of starts. One bad game for Felix and every number you just listed jumps up at least 20%, because the kid only has 30+ innings under his belt. Two bad games and his numbers will start to look more like Kerry Wood.

In terms of potential, and actually ability, Felix has Duke beat. But Duke has done it the best this season with production and consistency.

Chacin should be in the discussion, but he is a diffrent type of rookie.

And, of course, everything I just said made my argument for baker less valid. Pick him anyway. :-/ ;-D
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Sep 01, 2005 8:20 am

You're kidding, right?

Your argument for Duke is that he's pitched in more games, had 9 scoreless innings before going on the DL, and had more runless games?

And how about the games he gave up 4 runs in? Do we ignore those?

I agree that the major league sample size on all of these guys is too small, but the claim that was made was Baker and Duke were the "best rookie pitchers". Not the "best rookie pitchers who have at least N starts". Since Baker's included in that mix, it's obvious we are considering all pitchers regardless of the number of starts.

And, while you cherry pick stats that have no valid basis for predicting future performance, like what happened in the last 9 IP, the ones I posted do and clearly show that Felix has out-performed Duke.

And, it's not like we have to confine ourselves to major league performance. Felix's minor league performance, especially in context, is orders of magnitude better than Duke. And the thread started with a question about who is most likely to help short and long term.

Short term, Duke's on the DL. Long term his future can't hold a candle to Felix.

Anything can happen in baseball, but there's no rational way anyone could rate Duke above Felix on the basis of recent performance in the major leagues, short-term contribution over the rest of 2005, or long-term potential.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:14 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:You're kidding, right?

Your argument for Duke is that he's pitched in more games, had 9 scoreless innings before going on the DL, and had more runless games?

And how about the games he gave up 4 runs in? Do we ignore those?

I agree that the major league sample size on all of these guys is too small, but the claim that was made was Baker and Duke were the "best rookie pitchers". Not the "best rookie pitchers who have at least N starts". Since Baker's included in that mix, it's obvious we are considering all pitchers regardless of the number of starts.

And, while you cherry pick stats that have no valid basis for predicting future performance, like what happened in the last 9 IP, the ones I posted do and clearly show that Felix has out-performed Duke.

And, it's not like we have to confine ourselves to major league performance. Felix's minor league performance, especially in context, is orders of magnitude better than Duke. And the thread started with a question about who is most likely to help short and long term.

Short term, Duke's on the DL. Long term his future can't hold a candle to Felix.

Anything can happen in baseball, but there's no rational way anyone could rate Duke above Felix on the basis of recent performance in the major leagues, short-term contribution over the rest of 2005, or long-term potential.


Yeah it's pretty clear that the only thing that is standing in Felix's way is injuries.
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Postby TB13 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 9:23 am

theclefe wrote:It is Duke until I say so... or Felix gets another 4 wins. King Felix's ERA has been steadily climbing since his second start, so lets not get ahead of ourselves.


There's no way you can be serious. ERA steadily climbing? To what, his 1.84 current ERA? Did you think that his .69 ERA would hold steady? RJ in his prime could not hold that ERA. Clemens this year could not hold that ERA. King Felix has 45 k's to 9 walks. His WHIP is an unbelievable .82. That's not even a number. There are some relivers who would kill for an Era & Whip like that. He is simply dominating his opposition. Last night against the 'Yanks, he was efforlessly throwing 98 in the 7th & 8th innings. The Yankees got 2 early homers and then could not touch him.

Now Duke has been great. But his numbers look like this: 1.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 44 k's & 16 walks. You cannot just point to Duke having more wins as an indicator that he has been the better pitcher.
Duke also gets to face 2 virtual automatic outs (8th place hitter & the pitcher) every 3 innings. Felix gets to tango with the DH.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:33 am

TB13 wrote:
theclefe wrote:It is Duke until I say so... or Felix gets another 4 wins. King Felix's ERA has been steadily climbing since his second start, so lets not get ahead of ourselves.


There's no way you can be serious. ERA steadily climbing? To what, his 1.84 current ERA? Did you think that his .69 ERA would hold steady? RJ in his prime could not hold that ERA. Clemens this year could not hold that ERA. King Felix has 45 k's to 9 walks. His WHIP is an unbelievable .82. That's not even a number. There are some relivers who would kill for an Era & Whip like that. He is simply dominating his opposition. Last night against the 'Yanks, he was efforlessly throwing 98 in the 7th & 8th innings. The Yankees got 2 early homers and then could not touch him.

Now Duke has been great. But his numbers look like this: 1.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 44 k's & 16 walks. You cannot just point to Duke having more wins as an indicator that he has been the better pitcher.
Duke also gets to face 2 virtual automatic outs (8th place hitter & the pitcher) every 3 innings. Felix gets to tango with the DH.


OK now you are taking the other extreme. You can't start comparing Felix to Clemens and RJ now. He's got all the tools to be the greatest of all time. Doesn't mean that he will.

Let's give him a couple of years before you start comparing him to the best ever shall we?
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Postby TB13 » Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:50 am

Yoda wrote:OK now you are taking the other extreme. You can't start comparing Felix to Clemens and RJ now.


You are actually misunderstanding me. I am in no way comparing Felix to either Clemens or RJ. I just responded to the comment that Felix's era "has been steadily climbing". I simply said that no one could have an ERA of under 1. Not even Clemens or RJ. So it was inevitable that Felix's ERA would climb.
In no way am I ready to pontificate a comparison between Felix and either of those two. Or to anyone else for that matter. He's got the goods to be great, but it is FAR too early to project his career. It is not too early to hope that I can ride him in my playoffs.
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