Jose Reyes Future Value?

[mweir145]

I would hold onto Carpenter, Reyes + picks simply isn't good enough for him. It's tough to say what Reyes will do in the next few seasons.

[DK]

Reyes' only problem has been inconsistency. If you look, every month he's had some sort of weakness in what he's supposed to be good at, sans July.

April- no discipline, 4 SB
May- draws 8 walks, but still only 7 SB
June- Starts stealing bases, but hits .243 with 2 walks
July- Cuts down on his strikeouts and hits .328 while stealing 11 bases
August- Regresses to .260.

As he gets older, his speed may go up or down, but it will only be slightly either way- he's already a greyhound with two legs. Regardless, he'll get smarter on the basepaths as he gets older, which is stunning to think since his SB% (80.3%) is already excellent for a 22-year-old. To compare, a speedster at the same age stole bases at a 71.8% clip. That was some guy named Rickey.

His average should get better every year as the Mets help him cut down on his strikeouts. Randolph has already made it clear that Reyes needs to develop plate discipline to stick as his leadoff hitter. Willie had excellent plate discipline as a player, and D-Wright has great discipline, which should motivate him. Just a couple days ago I saw Reyes work a 3-0 count only to pop out. It's annoying, but he'll learn.

In terms of power, he doesn't have much but it's surprising when he does. I personally saw him golf a low-inside slider over the K sign in right field, which anyone who's ever been to Shea knows is a shot. I jumped out of my chair when he hit it, because you just knew it was gone right away. It was one of those. He's definitely not a power hitter and Randolph will see to it that he doesn't become one, and that's the way we need it. We don't want a Willie Wilson post age 29 on our hands.

Actually, now that I think of it, Wilson's an excellent comparison. Lots of speed, not much power, bad plate discipline, and potential for great average. At his peak, I think Reyes will be better but the difference won't be much.

I have Reyes' peak values at around .320-.330 with 40-50 walks and 80 strikeouts. He'll steal around 75-80 in his best years with 10 home runs and 100+ runs scored. His peak years will look a lot like this:

Code: Select all


G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP
161  705  133  230  28 15   3   49  79 10  28  81  .326  .357  .421  297   5   1   3   6   4

Which, incidentally, is Willie Wilson's best year (1980).

[Yoda]

Yeah, you've hit the nail on the head of what has me worried, prhood.

That obp makes me seriously question his ceiling right now. But I've got a guy that will probably give up quite a lot in the way of draft picks along with Jose Reyes in a keeper league to get Carpenter right now. We keep 6 players and I'm trying to build a team for the future. I've got Pujols, Utley, Rolen, Chipper, Carpenter and Clement as keepers for next year but don't have quality draft picks.

If I could get maybe a 1st+ as well as getting Reyes then I could flip Rolen and Chipper to get younger and have a solid hitting core for this team for years to come. And with Utley/Reyes as my middle infield I'd have serious power AND speed at those positions freeing me up to concentrate my draft picks on picking up the best hitters period and not worrying about position scarcity. I just don't know if the guy came to me and offered me a 1st, 5th and Reyes for Carpenter if I'd take it. That obp number smells an awful lot like a faster version of Corey Patterson. Everything else is more in Reyes' favor of course but seeing a pro ball player with an obp that low (especially a guy with that kind of speed at the top of the order) is disappointing.

I wouldn't do 1st, 5th and Reyes for Carpenter. Pitchers are just too risky to give up that many picks plus a really great young player for.

[The_Met_Threat]

Ive seen Reyes play in real life. He is the fastest person ever, its just amazing how good he is on the basepaths. His hitting streaks shows that he is able to hit for a good avg. .330 tops. If you play in an OBP league Reyes loses some value. I dont think that i would do Reyes + a 1 and a 5th for Carpenter. Reyes has real upside in a keeper league as long as he stays away from the injuries but hes a good player to go after.

[prhood]

As a matter of curiousity since we are discussing the future performance level of Reyes, I though I would look up a source which has a fair bit such analysis. Baseball Prospectus as part of their player rating system attempt to identify players of similar capabilities and potential at similar stages of their develoipment.

It's not a perfect system and hardly fool-proof. It's best virtue is that it is based on comparative performances over time and probably more reliable in general, though not in each and every case, than personal opinion and observation. As such the closest comparable player to Reyes was determined to be Cesar Izturis. (I can hear the screams now). Other players, and these were nowhere near as similar according to BP, were :

1. Ozzie Guillen
2. Felipe Lopez
3. Garry Templeton (outstanding in his 22-36 year period, mediocre after that)
4. Luis Castillo


The calibre of players particularly Lopez and Castillo is impressive but not in the top rank of SS or 2B players.

[Iconoclastic]

Reyes' only problem has been inconsistency. If you look, every month he's had some sort of weakness in what he's supposed to be good at, sans July.

April- no discipline, 4 SB
May- draws 8 walks, but still only 7 SB
June- Starts stealing bases, but hits .243 with 2 walks
July- Cuts down on his strikeouts and hits .328 while stealing 11 bases
August- Regresses to .260.

As he gets older, his speed may go up or down, but it will only be slightly either way- he's already a greyhound with two legs. Regardless, he'll get smarter on the basepaths as he gets older, which is stunning to think since his SB% (80.3%) is already excellent for a 22-year-old. To compare, a speedster at the same age stole bases at a 71.8% clip. That was some guy named Rickey.

His average should get better every year as the Mets help him cut down on his strikeouts. Randolph has already made it clear that Reyes needs to develop plate discipline to stick as his leadoff hitter. Willie had excellent plate discipline as a player, and D-Wright has great discipline, which should motivate him. Just a couple days ago I saw Reyes work a 3-0 count only to pop out. It's annoying, but he'll learn.

In terms of power, he doesn't have much but it's surprising when he does. I personally saw him golf a low-inside slider over the K sign in right field, which anyone who's ever been to Shea knows is a shot. I jumped out of my chair when he hit it, because you just knew it was gone right away. It was one of those. He's definitely not a power hitter and Randolph will see to it that he doesn't become one, and that's the way we need it. We don't want a Willie Wilson post age 29 on our hands.

Actually, now that I think of it, Wilson's an excellent comparison. Lots of speed, not much power, bad plate discipline, and potential for great average. At his peak, I think Reyes will be better but the difference won't be much.

I have Reyes' peak values at around .320-.330 with 40-50 walks and 80 strikeouts. He'll steal around 75-80 in his best years with 10 home runs and 100+ runs scored. His peak years will look a lot like this:

Code: Select all


G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP
161  705  133  230  28 15   3   49  79 10  28  81  .326  .357  .421  297   5   1   3   6   4

Which, incidentally, is Willie Wilson's best year (1980).

That's a pretty great year- 1st round value for sure- .326 133 3 49 79. I wouldn't complain about that kind of production from a thin position.

And if you don't think a guy with bad plate discipline can hit .370, I give you exhibit Ichiro.

This thread's kinda turned into 2 separate threads.

And I may have underrated Reyes' SB potential. If he manages to get on base close to .400 as I predict (if he's lucky, not consistently) he will have many more opportunities to steal and 90 should be a better ceiling.