Reyes' only problem has been inconsistency. If you look, every month he's had some sort of weakness in what he's supposed to be good at, sans July.
April- no discipline, 4 SB
May- draws 8 walks, but still only 7 SB
June- Starts stealing bases, but hits .243 with 2 walks
July- Cuts down on his strikeouts and hits .328 while stealing 11 bases
August- Regresses to .260.
As he gets older, his speed may go up or down, but it will only be slightly either way- he's already a greyhound with two legs. Regardless, he'll get smarter on the basepaths as he gets older, which is stunning to think since his SB% (80.3%) is already excellent for a 22-year-old. To compare, a speedster at the same age stole bases at a 71.8% clip. That was some guy named Rickey.
His average should get better every year as the Mets help him cut down on his strikeouts. Randolph has already made it clear that Reyes needs to develop plate discipline to stick as his leadoff hitter. Willie had excellent plate discipline as a player, and D-Wright has great discipline, which should motivate him. Just a couple days ago I saw Reyes work a 3-0 count only to pop out. It's annoying, but he'll learn.
In terms of power, he doesn't have much but it's surprising when he does. I personally saw him golf a low-inside slider over the K sign in right field, which anyone who's ever been to Shea knows is a shot
. I jumped out of my chair when he hit it, because you just knew it was gone right away. It was one of those. He's definitely not a power hitter and Randolph will see to it that he doesn't become one, and that's the way we need it. We don't want a Willie Wilson post age 29 on our hands.
Actually, now that I think of it, Wilson's an excellent comparison. Lots of speed, not much power, bad plate discipline, and potential for great average. At his peak, I think Reyes will be better but the difference won't be much.
I have Reyes' peak values at around .320-.330 with 40-50 walks and 80 strikeouts. He'll steal around 75-80 in his best years with 10 home runs and 100+ runs scored. His peak years will look a lot like this:
- Code: Select all
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
161 705 133 230 28 15 3 49 79 10 28 81 .326 .357 .421 297 5 1 3 6 4
Which, incidentally, is Willie Wilson's best year (1980).