Jose Reyes Future Value?

[WharfRat]

I'm going to be the devils advocate. I think what you see is what yopu'll get with some slight improvement. I can see him hitting .275-.290 with 40+ SB per year - assuming that the wear & tear of stealing doesn't increase jis time on the DL.

I suspect that his average will not rise above .300 on a consistent basis unless/until he learns plate discipline. He has a OBP of .300 and that has been consistent for several years. OBP not the be-all and end-all but it's a usefull indicator of plate discipline.

I agree with this assessment. Of course, plate discipline is something that can be learned, with a bit of hard work. Some guys like CPat can't seem to wrap their heads around it. If Reyes can learn it, he'll be murder. If not, he won't rise much above what he's doing now.

This is his first full season in the bigs don't forget, but his career minor-league OBP stands at .330, with more than twice as many K's as walks. Certainly room for improvement. I guess we'll all see what he does.

[Knicks4ever]

i know reyes doesnt have the greatest ops or batting average but it is improving greatly. He is hitting over 300 after the all star break and his obs is around 335 after the all star break. I dont expect him to keep this up and he will have ups and downs but he is improving greatly and he is swinging for the fences less and useing his speed more and more. You have to remember he is only 22 years old and he is only gonnd get better.

[prhood]

I think for Carpenter that a couple of draft picks + Reyes may be a good deal. Think you could get more than a 1st and 5th? My point with reyes is that in all probability "what you see is what you'll get" - don't expect a major improvement. This raises the question of who is your current SS?

Carpenter might nab you an elite OF - Bay, Sheffield, Crawford, Cabrera - plus a draft pick (2nd or 3rd). His market value will never be higher.

[prhood]

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but some further info is essential.

Yes Reyes has batted .300 after the allstar break but that was compised of a .328 in July and .260 so far in August. His OBP was .03 higher in each instance (.355 and ..297 in July and august respectively).

Reyes is too young (22) to get a good handle on how he'll develop. He may learn better plate discipline or equally he may not.

I am surprised that you would consider trading Carpenter since he represents the only quality pitcher the you are keeping. I don't class Clement as more than a 2nd or 3rd tier starter.

I also wouldn't flip both Rolen and Chipper since that strips you of a 3B player. Rolen + Clement might net you something.

[The Loveable Losers]

Carpenter might nab you an elite OF - Bay, Sheffield, Crawford, Cabrera - plus a draft pick (2nd or 3rd). His market value will never be higher.

If only I could get Cabrera for Carpenter...if Bay or Crawford played for better teams I might think about doing it for one of them...given their respective teams though I think I could get more.

I really like Reyes's long-term value IF he gets some plate discipline. And my thinking is that you can always find guys that can put up good numbers in the OF in a 6 keeper draft. Guys that can put up quality number in the IF (especially the MI) are harder to come by since the top guys at the position will be kept which leaves very few available to draft. I just don't know if I want to part with Carpenter for a guy that has a TON of potential but may or may not reach that potential.

[The Loveable Losers]

And I mean flipping them next year. I don't think I could get anything of value for Rolen or Chipper at the moment due to injuries.

[prhood]

There has to be a reason why someone would offer reyes + draft picks for carpenter. I frankly would keep him and seek to trade Rolen and Clement.

[prhood]

Unless I missed something - Chipper is not injured. Who are the players you're not keeping?

[The Loveable Losers]

People like Bret(t) Boone, etc. This was a really bad team that I just now took over for next year. The top names that I wouldn't be keeping are guys like Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan.

Chipper's not injured atm but he was hurt a good portion of the year...long enough for people to not give me the value I think he's worth to me in the short term.

[prhood]

I understand - his value might go up in September if he plays well. I just think that Reyes + 1st and 5th round draft picks is underselling Carpenter. I would hold off for a better offer.