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Save Opportunities?

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Save Opportunities?

Postby RynMan » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:25 am

Just curious, has there been any work done on determining what characteristics of teams correlate with their number of save opportunities? Surely you could just run a multiple regression to see if there is any relationships....?
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:35 am

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Postby go_jays_go » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:42 am

I think he was asking more how you determine how many Save Opps. a team gets. However, I'm not sure how.

I found this article from last year which was interesting though.

http://www.baseballtruth.com/leadingoff/leadingoff_042004.htm
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Postby reznorsboy » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:56 am

It is very hard to determine. Alot of times it isn't the great teams that get alot of saves it's the middle of the pack teams that just always seem to be in close games. Look at Cordero in Washington. They are a middle osf the pack team and he has had alot of oppurtunities. I would say teams with good starters and defence and average power are more apt to get saves.
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Re: Save Opportunities?

Postby mamorris » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:07 am

RynMan wrote:Just curious, has there been any work done on determining what characteristics of teams correlate with their number of save opportunities? Surely you could just run a multiple regression to see if there is any relationships....?


At the start of the year I had a look at the previous 3 years and tried to link saves to wins, runs scored, runs allowed and run differential. I don't have the results any more, but from memory the results were pretty disappointing. There was a fairly weak link between wins and save opportunities, but that's about it.
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Re: Save Opportunities?

Postby RynMan » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:27 am

mamorris wrote:
RynMan wrote:Just curious, has there been any work done on determining what characteristics of teams correlate with their number of save opportunities? Surely you could just run a multiple regression to see if there is any relationships....?


At the start of the year I had a look at the previous 3 years and tried to link saves to wins, runs scored, runs allowed and run differential. I don't have the results any more, but from memory the results were pretty disappointing. There was a fairly weak link between wins and save opportunities, but that's about it.


Thanks for the replies guys and the links have been interesting. ;-D

This is more what I was asking, mamorris. I'm fairly sure it wouldn't take a very long time to run the figures thanks mainly to the Lahman Database, but a multiple regression that took into account all team based statistics may come up with something. Sounds like what you did MM was linear regressions to try and draw a relationship. :-?
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Re: Save Opportunities?

Postby mamorris » Fri Aug 26, 2005 4:27 am

RynMan wrote:
mamorris wrote:
RynMan wrote:Just curious, has there been any work done on determining what characteristics of teams correlate with their number of save opportunities? Surely you could just run a multiple regression to see if there is any relationships....?


At the start of the year I had a look at the previous 3 years and tried to link saves to wins, runs scored, runs allowed and run differential. I don't have the results any more, but from memory the results were pretty disappointing. There was a fairly weak link between wins and save opportunities, but that's about it.


Thanks for the replies guys and the links have been interesting. ;-D

This is more what I was asking, mamorris. I'm fairly sure it wouldn't take a very long time to run the figures thanks mainly to the Lahman Database, but a multiple regression that took into account all team based statistics may come up with something. Sounds like what you did MM was linear regressions to try and draw a relationship. :-?


*If you suffer from stat-ophobia, stop reading now*

Yeah, they were separate linear regressions. Turns out I just needed to go back further to find a relationship. I did the Lahman thingy like you suggested (but for saves, not save opps - Lahman doesn't have save opps to my knowledge). I looked at the years since 1969, when the save stat was officially recognised, and used all of their team-based stats. Eventually I reduced it to this:

Saves (predicted) = 0.485 * Wins - 0.37 * Complete Games + 6.31

The R^2 was about 67%, if you cared. I managed to get it slightly more accurate using runs scored and allowed, but it's probably not worth making it too complex for only a small increase in accuracy. Hope this is what you were looking for.
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Re: Save Opportunities?

Postby RynMan » Fri Aug 26, 2005 7:37 am

mamorris wrote:
*If you suffer from stat-ophobia, stop reading now*

Yeah, they were separate linear regressions. Turns out I just needed to go back further to find a relationship. I did the Lahman thingy like you suggested (but for saves, not save opps - Lahman doesn't have save opps to my knowledge). I looked at the years since 1969, when the save stat was officially recognised, and used all of their team-based stats. Eventually I reduced it to this:

Saves (predicted) = 0.485 * Wins - 0.37 * Complete Games + 6.31

The R^2 was about 67%, if you cared. I managed to get it slightly more accurate using runs scored and allowed, but it's probably not worth making it too complex for only a small increase in accuracy. Hope this is what you were looking for.


Yeah is great. Not a real strong correlation but not too bad. As I learn more about multiple regressions this semester I might spend some time on this and give it a bump.
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