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David Wright value next year?

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Postby moneybaseball » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:42 am

mweir145 wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:I kinda compare Wright to Miggy. Not in terms of how they play the game but that they are very young and look to be continually getting better. Wright is likely my favorite player but i expect those numbers everyone has been talking about and they are realistic. The chances of Bay ever reaching around 15 sb again are unrealistic. I really dont see how this guy has any speed and i believe most of his SB came from taking advantage of bad catchers and good situations. I mean 6 cs out of 10 attempts shows the true jason bay last year. While Wright we already know has speed, he could even put up 25 sb. I think Bay will hit around .290 - 30 - 100 - 100 - 10 Which are still very nice numbers but i believe hell keep a steady pace to this years numbers. I also think Bay strikes out a little too much compared to his # of walks, but still a very fine keeper indeed. I think Wright has a much higher ceiling, around a top 5 pick if he can get his power to 35 hr. Just imagine.

.305 - 110 - 35 - 120 - 25 Of course those numbers are generous, and im thinking more like 3 years down the road, but i think ill take that top 5. Also depending on where he plays in the lineup, and if Beltran can get OB more and get in scoring position.

;-D

But how does that explain Bay's 14 sb to 0 cs ratio this year? Maybe he's just getting better jumps and has learned the major league pitchers this year better.

In my mind, he's a smart base stealer, and that can usually get you atleast 15 SB's a year if you play your cards right.


Ya thats true i can't explain where that came from. Id have to go and look whenever he stole a base and see who the catcher was and frankly too lazy, and that is not the point im trying to prove anyway. Still i see Wright as higher ceiling and lower floor. But Bay is still good.

Yeah, I guess I'll believe you because I haven't seen enough of either of them to really know who is the better player at the moment, and who will do better in the future.


Bay is fast enough to steal 20+ bases a year.
Wright has potential to steal more in any given year. 13, 18 or 20+ I think it's hard to predict because he may not steal as often if he bats higher in the order.


<pre> Prediction
Bay 110 30 95 17 .290 .390 .550

Wright 100 28 100 18 .295 .390 .535
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Postby mweir145 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:45 am

moneybaseball wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
The_Met_Threat wrote:I kinda compare Wright to Miggy. Not in terms of how they play the game but that they are very young and look to be continually getting better. Wright is likely my favorite player but i expect those numbers everyone has been talking about and they are realistic. The chances of Bay ever reaching around 15 sb again are unrealistic. I really dont see how this guy has any speed and i believe most of his SB came from taking advantage of bad catchers and good situations. I mean 6 cs out of 10 attempts shows the true jason bay last year. While Wright we already know has speed, he could even put up 25 sb. I think Bay will hit around .290 - 30 - 100 - 100 - 10 Which are still very nice numbers but i believe hell keep a steady pace to this years numbers. I also think Bay strikes out a little too much compared to his # of walks, but still a very fine keeper indeed. I think Wright has a much higher ceiling, around a top 5 pick if he can get his power to 35 hr. Just imagine.

.305 - 110 - 35 - 120 - 25 Of course those numbers are generous, and im thinking more like 3 years down the road, but i think ill take that top 5. Also depending on where he plays in the lineup, and if Beltran can get OB more and get in scoring position.

;-D

But how does that explain Bay's 14 sb to 0 cs ratio this year? Maybe he's just getting better jumps and has learned the major league pitchers this year better.

In my mind, he's a smart base stealer, and that can usually get you atleast 15 SB's a year if you play your cards right.


Ya thats true i can't explain where that came from. Id have to go and look whenever he stole a base and see who the catcher was and frankly too lazy, and that is not the point im trying to prove anyway. Still i see Wright as higher ceiling and lower floor. But Bay is still good.

Yeah, I guess I'll believe you because I haven't seen enough of either of them to really know who is the better player at the moment, and who will do better in the future.


Bay is fast enough to steal 20+ bases a year.
Wright has potential to steal more in any given year. 13, 18 or 20+ I think it's hard to predict because he may not steal as often if he bats higher in the order.


<pre> Prediction
Bay 110 30 95 17 .290 .390 .550

Wright 100 28 100 18 .295 .390 .535

Those look like pretty good predictions. ;-D
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:40 am

I dont understand Wright's 100 runs. I mean thats what hes projected to get this year if he plays the rest of the mets games. And he was batting 6th and 7th for over half the season. Do you predict hell hit 7th next year?
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Re: fds

Postby CubsFan7724 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:22 pm

RynMan wrote:
curious_george_43545 wrote: As for Wright I got him at number 4 next year and higher the year after that. I expect at the least probably .305 30 105 100 15 and he has upside to perform much better than that in 06. He's going to someday be a consistant 1st/2nd rounder for years to come, so ;-D to anyone who has him in a dyntasy, keeper, etc. type league.


Curious as to who the 3 guys above him are?

1. A-Rod

I would put Wright right after A-Rod.

MCab is probably going to get 3B eligibility, and I'd think Ramirez and Wright would be about equal.
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Postby TB13 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:42 pm

Wright will be good, but it is debateable if he wll be as good as an ARam, who to me is the #2 third baseman taken next year. He's been playing hurt all year. Healthy, I think he has better #'s across the board than Wright, except steals that is.
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Postby moneybaseball » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:07 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:I dont understand Wright's 100 runs. I mean thats what hes projected to get this year if he plays the rest of the mets games. And he was batting 6th and 7th for over half the season. Do you predict hell hit 7th next year?


I think predicting runs and rbi is a crapshoot. Basically I think Bay will score more and Wright will drive more in.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:52 pm

I personally think that Wright will score more because of a better offense hitting him in, but that depends. If hes #2 in the order im almost 100% sure hell score more runs than at #5/6/7 and more runs than jason bay.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Aug 26, 2005 4:38 pm

TB13 wrote:Wright will be good, but it is debateable if he wll be as good as an ARam, who to me is the #2 third baseman taken next year. He's been playing hurt all year. Healthy, I think he has better #'s across the board than Wright, except steals that is.


Fatal fantasy mistake...assuming that players who were injured last year will tend to be more healthy the next year.
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Re: fds

Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:27 pm

CubsFan7724 wrote:MCab is probably going to get 3B eligibility, and I'd think Ramirez and Wright would be about equal.


Ummm no. MCab is a top 10 hitter right now at age 22, getting better every year.
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Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:35 pm

TB13 wrote:Wright will be good, but it is debateable if he wll be as good as an ARam, who to me is the #2 third baseman taken next year. He's been playing hurt all year. Healthy, I think he has better #'s across the board than Wright, except steals that is.


Aramis is more proven for sure but Wright's ceiling is way higher.

Already, Wright at 22, is at around the same value as Aramis. And Wright has been hitting at the bottom of the order for majority of the season.

Going into 06, I think their value is very similar. If Wright continues to progress, he will be a major 5 category threat for years to come.
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