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David Wright value next year?

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Postby raiders_umpire » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:03 pm

wright will be a top 25 player next year which means he should be drafted in the first 3 rounds easily..... his numbers should only get better and better for the next few years as well, ala mcab...... he will easily be in most top 5 at 3b, and probably be in the top 3 on most cheat sheets for 3rd basemen......
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Postby RynMan » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:07 pm

joeg24 wrote:I've wondered this too as I have him in a three person keeper.

When his average was 285 all year I thought he was solid, now at 310+ he's been getting me excited for next year.

His plate approach is so great it's hard to imagine him not being a 300/30/110/20 guy next year. He does look like his power will improve too. 300/40 someday? I think it's possible.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say in a standard roto he goes in the early third, in a head to head maybe 4th?

No denying that he isn't going to be a real baseball superstar as he's already made 2 of the top 10 web-jems this year and has a likable personality and is in NY.


Solid post! I totally agree.

I'm also astounded at how good this guy's plate discipline is. Couple that with the bunch of steals he puts up he becomes very valuable at 3B. I would take him over Chavez and Blalock. Maybe even Rolen....
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Postby Yoda » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:11 pm

mweir145 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:4th or 5th round?

Maybe in an 8 team league.

For this season, Wright will probably end up ranked in the top 30 players, despite the fact that 60% of his ABs came from the 6th and 7th holes.

Given that he's younger than 27 and he's likely to be batting much higher in the order, his numbers should be expected to significantly improve next year, a supposition supported by his in-season trend.

Wright should be picked no later than 25th in ANY league and should be among the top 20, possibly top 10, in any keeper league.

He may end up a top 15 player THIS year
and will certainly be one next year, barring injury.

Don't you think you are overvalueing him a bit?
I mean his numbers aren't THAT good. 4th-5th rounds seems about right for a player of his calibur with 3B eligibility.

I mean if Wright is a top 20, and possibly top 10 player in a keeper league, what does that make a player like Jason Bay who has better stats than Wright (though admittingly at a position with a higer depth)?


I think Wright and Bay are similar value right now except Wright is much younger.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:13 pm

mweir145 wrote:I mean if Wright is a top 20, and possibly top 10 player in a keeper league, what does that make a player like Jason Bay who has better stats than Wright (though admittingly at a position with a higer depth)?

Bay is in a similar position as Wright IMO. Not taking position into consideration each has a value ~$34 in a standard league. Wright is the 2nd most valuable 3B so far this season. Bay is the 4th most valuable OF. Bay will skyrocket up the cheat sheets as well next year.
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:15 pm

Yoda wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:4th or 5th round?

Maybe in an 8 team league.

For this season, Wright will probably end up ranked in the top 30 players, despite the fact that 60% of his ABs came from the 6th and 7th holes.

Given that he's younger than 27 and he's likely to be batting much higher in the order, his numbers should be expected to significantly improve next year, a supposition supported by his in-season trend.

Wright should be picked no later than 25th in ANY league and should be among the top 20, possibly top 10, in any keeper league.

He may end up a top 15 player THIS year
and will certainly be one next year, barring injury.

Don't you think you are overvalueing him a bit?
I mean his numbers aren't THAT good. 4th-5th rounds seems about right for a player of his calibur with 3B eligibility.

I mean if Wright is a top 20, and possibly top 10 player in a keeper league, what does that make a player like Jason Bay who has better stats than Wright (though admittingly at a position with a higer depth)?


I think Wright and Bay are similar value right now except Wright is much younger.

Yes, Bay is turning 27 in September I think, but that would mean he is likely entering his prime in the next few years. Wouldn't that make him more valuable in the short-term?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:15 pm

mweir145 wrote:Don't you think you are overvalueing him a bit?
I mean his numbers aren't THAT good. 4th-5th rounds seems about right for a player of his calibur with 3B eligibility.

I mean if Wright is a top 20, and possibly top 10 player in a keeper league, what does that make a player like Jason Bay who has better stats than Wright (though admittingly at a position with a higer depth)?


Nope. I don't think I'm overvaluing him one single bit.

I'm not sure in what universe 20 HRs, 14 SBs, 82 runs and RBIs and a .314 BA in 3/4 of a season would be "not that good", but it sure isn't the one we live in.

Take into account the fact that Wright did that while batting 6th/7th in 60 percent of his ABs (compared to Bay's 100% as #3 or #4), AND he plays 3B (compared to Bay's OF), AND he's 4 years younger than Bay, and he's easily worth more than Bay.

He's much, much more likely to improve his #s than Bay because he's younger and he'll get an extra 50 or so plate appearances that he did not get because of batting order. Add in the positional depth issue and it's not much of a contest.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:19 pm

mweir145 wrote:Yes, Bay is turning 27 in September I think, but that would mean he is likely entering his prime in the next few years. Wouldn't that make him more valuable in the short-term?


In other words, Bay has a 50/50 chance or better of plateauing in the next two years.

Wright is likely to increase his numbers by between 3 and 5 percent each year for the next 5 years before beginning to hit a plateau.

And given that they are equal (ignoring the fact that Bay had a batting order advantage this year and ignoring the positional adjustment) this year, that's why Wright should be ranked higher.
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:23 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Don't you think you are overvalueing him a bit?
I mean his numbers aren't THAT good. 4th-5th rounds seems about right for a player of his calibur with 3B eligibility.

I mean if Wright is a top 20, and possibly top 10 player in a keeper league, what does that make a player like Jason Bay who has better stats than Wright (though admittingly at a position with a higer depth)?


Nope. I don't think I'm overvaluing him one single bit.

I'm not sure in what universe 20 HRs, 14 SBs, 82 runs and RBIs and a .314 BA in 3/4 of a season would be "not that good", but it sure isn't the one we live in.

Take into account the fact that Wright did that while batting 6th/7th in 60 percent of his ABs (compared to Bay's 100% as #3 or #4), AND he plays 3B (compared to Bay's OF), AND he's 4 years younger than Bay, and he's easily worth more than Bay.

He's much, much more likely to improve his #s than Bay because he's younger and he'll get an extra 50 or so plate appearances that he did not get because of batting order. Add in the positional depth issue and it's not much of a contest.


You misquoted me, what I said was his numbers are not top 10 quality. It sure seems like Wright is very hyped up after this recent hot streak, suddenly everyone deems him to be a top 10-20 player in a keeper league.

There still is no question that Wright will be one of the most sought after players at the 3B position next year especially in keeper leagues, but wouldn't Bay's value in the short term be more than Wright's? At the age of 26, Bay should be entering his prime soon.
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Postby mweir145 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:27 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Yes, Bay is turning 27 in September I think, but that would mean he is likely entering his prime in the next few years. Wouldn't that make him more valuable in the short-term?


In other words, Bay has a 50/50 chance or better of plateauing in the next two years.

Wright is likely to increase his numbers by between 3 and 5 percent each year for the next 5 years before beginning to hit a plateau.

And given that they are equal (ignoring the fact that Bay had a batting order advantage this year and ignoring the positional adjustment) this year, that's why Wright should be ranked higher.

But how exactly do we know Wright will continue to increase his numbers?
A player by the name of Vernon Wells had an amazing season in 2003, but never has reached any of those plateau's since, and it is unlikely he will ever do so again. My point being that Wright isn't as big a "for sure" player as many of us are saying he is. I mean the pitchers on other teams are going to have an whole offseason to take a look at him, though he has been able to get through his softmore season quite well.
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Postby Cooner » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:48 pm

maybe i'm slow and not having a good memory at the moment, but with predictions of:

30 HR, 100-110 Runs and RBIs, .310, and 20 SB

(the only real question there being homeruns, I'm assuming he won't be batting 6,7, or 8 EVER next year, making 100-110 perfectly reasonable...)

Isn't that higher than 3rd round material? I mean, that's near-Beltran prediction numbers in every category, and blows him out of the water in average, and he went 3-5 in most drafts. Maybe my memory is off, I should check what the actual Beltran projections were before I start spouting off...
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