sockeye wrote:I think the writers will also give some attention to how the player's finished.....Carpenter was not outstanding at first, but has come on like a fright train the last few months. August and Sept will count for disproportionately more than April and May in many writer's minds....
A second consideration is what the pitcher is giving you. Pitcher A at 2.00 ERA and 8 IP/start is as valuable to me as Pitcher B at 1.75 and 6.5 IP/start.
But odds are that the last 3 weeks of the season will serve to separate Willis, Clemens, and Carp.
Couldn't agree more.
1st - there are 3 weeks left. If I recall correctly, a couple years ago, Schmidt was having a dominant season, then stumbled at the end and didn't win the Cy. If Clemens or Carpenter struggle the last few starts, then this discussion becomes moot (or another pitcher, e.g. Willis, may come into the picture). If last night was any indication, and Clemens hammy is bothering him, then it may have started.
2nd - yes, run support is a big reason that Carpenter has 10 more wins than Clemens - but it isn't the only reason. Being able to (and consistently doing it) pitch 8 innings reduces the chances of your bullpen blowing a lead, gives your offense more chances to score runs for you, reduces the wear and tear on the bullpen (and, allows them to be better for the other pitchers), etc. As such, I think the fact Carpenter averages almost a full IP more per game is a strong factor in his favor. Now I don't think IP is the end all and be all, but when he's giving his team another IP at a 2.2 ERA and sub-1.0 WHIP (better than the STL bullpen), then he should be given a little credit for this.
Also, a difference in ERA of about 0.5 equates to about 13 ER over a 230 IP season. So while the Cards have scored app. 50+ more runs, it isn't as if Carpenter has given them all away. Not to mention, if Clemens shouldn't be penalized for pitching for a bad offensive team, then Carpenter shouldn't be penalized (i.e. lose the Cy) because he happens to pitch for a good offensive team. Plus, it is a lot of "what if" by stating that Clemens would have "x" more wins "if" something happened. That may be true. It also may not be and can't be proven. What can be seen is that for whatever reasons, Carpenter has 10 more wins, and peripheral stats that are close to or the same as Clemens.
So, while I still think a lot can happen between now and the end of the season, if the Cy were awarded today, I'd vote for Carpenter (if I had a vote). Wins may be more team dependent than some stats, but they matter a great deal. If they didn't, people like RJ last year and Nolan Ryan in 1987 (and others in the past) would have won the award. At the end of the day, when the rest of the stats are close, it is hard to ignore 21-4 vs. 11-7.