Yoda wrote: No matter how many Ws Carpenter ends up with won't change the fact that Clemens has been the best pitcher this season and arguably the last 30+ years.
I'll take Pedro 2000 over him.
pokerplaya wrote:Clemens sheer notoriety will get him votes. The fact that his ERA is 1.50 is amazing, but I can't see him winning. No pitcher in the last 20 years has not won the CY Young that has 23 wins. I can't see Carpenter not winning it...but then again, I thought RJ should have taken it last year....
I agree with everything. The voters are too hung up on wins for Carp not to win.
No love for Dontrelle? While I agree that the race is most likely between Carpenter and Clemens, Dontrelle's numbers are filthy and most likely would make him a lock for the Cy Young in any season other than 2005, where you have even filthier guys like Carp and Clemens.
As much as I like the Rocket -- I've been a fan since the 80s! -- I don't see how he should get the award over Carpenter.
First of all, it's not just Carpenter's 21 wins. He's got a 2.21 ERA, .97 WHIP, and 198 K. Those numbers are ridiculous in and of themselves. Are they as ridiculous as Clemens'? No, but they are not so far off. Carpenter even has 30 more K, which is not an insignificant amount. It's not like Carpenter has 21 wins with a 3+ ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 150 K. His numbers are close to the Rockets, but has nearly twice the number of wins.
Secondly, Clemens won last year in large part because of his wins and the success of the team. Was he the best pure pitcher in the NL last year? No. RJ had better stats across the board (except for wins). So if pure individual pitching stats are all that is considered, then RJ should have won last year and not Clemens.
The criteria has to be the same from year to year, so if Clemens won over RJ last year, then Carpenter has to win this year.
There is also a HUGE caveat in that Carpenter and Clemens will likely get 3 or 4 more starts each. Lots can happen in those starts.
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Secret Avatar wrote:The criteria has to be the same from year to year, so if Clemens won over RJ last year, then Carpenter has to win this year.
I disagree here. The criteria has never been the same in CY or MVP. Best pitcher means different things to different people (writers). Besides, the writers switch off, so this year's CY will be voted by last year's MVP NL voters.
Another point which i made earlier, is the candidates have changed (there was no Willis last year who might steal some votes), the stats are different (RJs 14 losses, .500 record, quite different then Clemens (6 losses, good winnning %). The difference in era last year was only .38 (2.60 versus 2.98. The era difference is much bigger this year. You guys are comparing apples to oranges (last year, versus this year). If Carpenter and Clemens had RJs/Clemens stats from last year, then yea the criteria would apply. RJ got 7 1st place votes last year (97 points) to Carpenters (140). So it wasn't a landslide, voter's disagreed a bit. Clemens numbers this year are better then RJs last year easily. Carpenter imo, will win, because 20+ wins are going to sway the tweener voters.
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rclemens is a nice story and his ERA is amazing BUT so is ccarpenter's 2.21 ERA and .097 whip and 200 K's and, oh yeah, 21 wins and counting...the fact that carpenter finishes off his starts and helps out his team's bullpen has merit also...gimme ccarpenter's winning effort of 8 ip 6 H 2 R 1 BB 7 K against roger's 6 ip 5 H 1 R 1 BB 5 K no decision .. ccarpenter is the CY Young winner hands down
I think the writers will also give some attention to how the player's finished.....Carpenter was not outstanding at first, but has come on like a fright train the last few months. August and Sept will count for disproportionately more than April and May in many writer's minds....
A second consideration is what the pitcher is giving you. Pitcher A at 2.00 ERA and 8 IP/start is as valuable to me as Pitcher B at 1.75 and 6.5 IP/start.
But odds are that the last 3 weeks of the season will serve to separate Willis, Clemens, and Carp.