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Postby reznorsboy » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:53 am

I think Carpenter will win it.
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Postby no1cowboysfan » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:17 am

reznorsboy wrote:I think Carpenter will win it.


As do I, but I hope it's Clemens. I know he only leads Carpenter in 1 cmajor category, but as has been so eloquently stated earlier, 1.53 is just too pretty. And from the same argument earlier, both the 2004 Diamondbacks and the 2005 Astros have no run support. However, since Clemens is sitting at 11-7, meaning (counting out no decisions) his w:l ratio is about 60%/40%. Whereas RJ in 2004 was almost 50/50. And considering Clemens was trailing RJ by roughly .4 in ERA last year, and this year he leads Carpenter by roughly .75, the two years can't be fairly compared.
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Postby RynMan » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:34 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
RynMan wrote:I totally agree, however I doubt the voters think this way...it's too logical and intelligent.


I guess the question is "who deserves it" versus "who will the voters pick".


Absolutely.
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Postby moneybaseball » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:53 am

RynMan wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:The problem with only looking at runs allowed or ERA, is that runs are a product of both pitching and defense (as well aas ballpark and other effects). Without controlling for those, relying solely on runs allowed or ERA is likely to be just as misleading as relying on W/L


.... Clemens won last year all because of a ridiculous statistical category that is glorified and constantly referred to by the media. Randy Johnson was the best pitcher in the NL in 2004 and he was easily.


Sheets was up there with Unit.

RynMan wrote: I would rather have had Randy Johnson at the top of my rotation in that season. Shouldn't that be what the award is about?


I agree and I think it actually is. If your question is who would you rather have on the mound, Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson? surely, the Clemens side would be substantial in numbers.
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Postby RynMan » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:04 am

RynMan wrote: I would rather have had Randy Johnson at the top of my rotation in that season. Shouldn't that be what the award is about?


I agree and I think it actually is. If your question is who would you rather have on the mound, Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson? surely, the Clemens side would be substantial in numbers.[/quote]

I agree, Sheets was also excellent last year.

I was talking about last season just to clarify. I would have rathered Johnson over Clemens in 2004, therefore he should have won the Cy Young award. Clemens had more wins which next to nothing to do with how well the guy has actually pitched.
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Postby davidmarver » Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:34 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
blankman wrote:Clemens should win at this point
It just seems like people either want to vote for Clemens because he has the lowest ERA or they want to vote for Carpenter because he has the most wins. Why not take a look at all their stats?

Alright, lets look at all stats.

First of all, Clemens WHIP is 0.93, which is lower than Carpenter's 0.97.

Strikeout-wise, Clemens gets 8.18 per nine, while Carpenter gets 8.16 per nine. So Clemens is actually the better strikeout pitcher.

Clemens batting average against is .187, best in the NL, while Carpenter's .213 is fifth in the NL. Clemens OPS against is .512, compared to Carpenter's .579.

Clemens DIPS (theoretical ERA) is 2.80 compared to Carpenter's 2.92.

Clemens pitching runs (pitching equivalent of runs created) is 55 compared to Carpenter's 46.

Clemens has 22 win shares compared to Carpenter's 16.

Clemens run support is 3.73 (6th worst) compared to Carpenter's lofty 5.18 (15th best). That certainly would affect these numbers: Clemens 11-6, Carpenter 18-4. Record, to me, is a wash due to the fact that Clemens has been screwed more than anyone else, less five pitchers, in all of the National League, while Carpenter gets five-plus runs per game.

Clemens has a ERA .76 lower but trails in every other stat.

;-7
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Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:36 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
blankman wrote:Clemens should win at this point
It just seems like people either want to vote for Clemens because he has the lowest ERA or they want to vote for Carpenter because he has the most wins. Why not take a look at all their stats?

Alright, lets look at all stats.

First of all, Clemens WHIP is 0.93, which is lower than Carpenter's 0.97.

Strikeout-wise, Clemens gets 8.18 per nine, while Carpenter gets 8.16 per nine. So Clemens is actually the better strikeout pitcher.

Clemens batting average against is .187, best in the NL, while Carpenter's .213 is fifth in the NL. Clemens OPS against is .512, compared to Carpenter's .579.

Clemens DIPS (theoretical ERA) is 2.80 compared to Carpenter's 2.92.

Clemens pitching runs (pitching equivalent of runs created) is 55 compared to Carpenter's 46.

Clemens has 22 win shares compared to Carpenter's 16.

Clemens run support is 3.73 (6th worst) compared to Carpenter's lofty 5.18 (15th best). That certainly would affect these numbers: Clemens 11-6, Carpenter 18-4. Record, to me, is a wash due to the fact that Clemens has been screwed more than anyone else, less five pitchers, in all of the National League, while Carpenter gets five-plus runs per game.

Clemens has a ERA .76 lower but trails in every other stat.

;-7


Yeah I don't get why people still think that Carpenter has been the better pitcher. He's certainly been more dominant since June but numbers do not lie. Clemens is the best. Period.
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Postby cordscords » Fri Aug 26, 2005 5:37 pm

Throw in the fact he's 43, and doing it with a bad back is even more impressive.

Even though hall voters are supposed to not think about those 2 things, you know they will be.
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Postby JTWood » Fri Aug 26, 2005 6:44 pm

davidmarver wrote:Alright, lets look at all stats.

First of all, Clemens WHIP is 0.93, which is lower than Carpenter's 0.97.

Strikeout-wise, Clemens gets 8.18 per nine, while Carpenter gets 8.16 per nine. So Clemens is actually the better strikeout pitcher.

Clemens batting average against is .187, best in the NL, while Carpenter's .213 is fifth in the NL. Clemens OPS against is .512, compared to Carpenter's .579.

Clemens DIPS (theoretical ERA) is 2.80 compared to Carpenter's 2.92.

Clemens pitching runs (pitching equivalent of runs created) is 55 compared to Carpenter's 46.

Clemens has 22 win shares compared to Carpenter's 16.

Clemens run support is 3.73 (6th worst) compared to Carpenter's lofty 5.18 (15th best). That certainly would affect these numbers: Clemens 11-6, Carpenter 18-4. Record, to me, is a wash due to the fact that Clemens has been screwed more than anyone else, less five pitchers, in all of the National League, while Carpenter gets five-plus runs per game.

Great post, but you and I and everyone else knows that most of those stats aren't taken into consideration when the votes are cast.

I personally think it will all come down to the playoffs. If the 'Stros make it, it's tough for Carp to overcome Clemens. If they don't, then obviously Clemens wasn't valuable enough.

And then there's the wild-card steroid rumor...

Okay, okay, I was just kidding there.

:-D

But you know that would automatically disqualify him if true...
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Postby blankman » Fri Aug 26, 2005 7:17 pm

"If they don't, [make the playoffs] then obviously Clemens wasn't valuable enough."

JT, playoffs have nothing to do with the Cy Young. The award is for the best pitcher, period and I sure hope you don't believe that statement. Even if it was about value, the most valuable pitcher is the best one in the league and that so far is Clemens.
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