How important is the W/L record in CYA voting? Last year it was the deciding factor in the NL race. Supposedly. Despite being better in all other major categories, Randy Johnson finished second to Roger Clemens in the voting. Why?
Clemens 18-4, 214 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 218 SO
Johnson 16-14, 246 IP, 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 290 SO
How did Johnson lose so many games? His team was horrible, they were 51-111. He had almost a third of his teams wins. Clemens team was 92-70 and he won about a fifth of his teams games.
This year, things will almost certainly be flip-flopped, once again in the favor of Roger Clemens. Now I like Roger just fine, but I like to see the best pitcher win. Maybe he was the best pitcher last year, maybe he is the best pitcher this year. But he isn’t/wasn’t the best pitcher both years. But he’ll have 2 Cy Young Awards for those years.
Carpenter is better than Clemens in all but one category
Clemens 11-5, 170 IP, 1.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 155 SO
Carpenter 17-4, 188 IP, 2.29 ERA, .98 WHIP, 174 SO
Why the infatuation over Clemens? Is 16-14 just too ugly? Is 1.53 too pretty?
Unless carpenter screws up badly in the last month he should and probably will earn the Cy Young award. I suspect that it's difficult for the voters to go with a pitcher whose record is 16-14 - regardless of his team's performance.
I'm reminded of one of the truly great altime season performances by Steve Carleton back in the 60's I believe. He went 27-5 with 250+ Ks and a microscopic ERA for a Philadelphia team that won only 60-65 games. Randy didn't even come close to that.
I don't think it's favored towards Clemens. He does own the lowest ERA for a starter since Bob Gibson from the 60's. He's been consistent all season long whereas Carpenter started to turn it up in June.
Also, I doubt the voters look at fantasy categories when making their decision. If Carpenter continues to pitch like he has, his Ws will probably help him win. However I'm guessing that if Clemens helps the Stros win the wild card then he'll probably win.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Clemens should win at this point, and obviously Carpenter's best chance is to get to 20 wins because the voters have shown that Wins are a big deal. I think Randy's 14 losses to Clemens' 4 took the award away from him last year, right or wrong.
Why? That is what I'm trying to get at. Clemens has a ERA .76 lower but trails in every other stat. It just seems like people either want to vote for Clemens because he has the lowest ERA or they want to vote for Carpenter because he has the most wins. Why not take a look at all their stats?
Why? That is what I'm trying to get at. Clemens has a ERA .76 lower but trails in every other stat. It just seems like people either want to vote for Clemens because he has the lowest ERA or they want to vote for Carpenter because he has the most wins. Why not take a look at all their stats?
I agree. Clemens is doing awesome, but Carpenter owns him every category outside of ERA.
by JustAnotherYanksFan » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:43 pm
The reason Clemens should win is that the only stats that should be considered are ERA and IP. And the only stats that actually are considered are ERA and W/L.
After all, why should categories like WHIP and K's be considered? Those may be useful as predictors for future success (and they may be helpful when you're in a 5x5 roto league), but in real life, all that matters is runs. A pitcher with a lower ERA has indisputably been more effective than a pitcher with a higher ERA. It really doesn't matter that Carpenter has a better WHIP or more K's. The bottom line is that he's given up more runs, which means that he hasn't been as effective a pitcher as Clemens.
I don't believe that wins and losses should really be considered, since those are partly outside of the pitcher's control. However, innings pitched should definitely be considered, since a pitcher who throws more innings is more valuable than one who throws fewer innings. Right now, Carpenter's IP is 196.1 and Clemens' is 178.1. I'd still say the award should go to Clemens because his ERA is so much lower. (The difference is 0.78, which is pretty huge. that's the same as the difference between 3.22 and 4.00 or between 2.82 and 3.60. It's pretty significant.)
Why? That is what I'm trying to get at. Clemens has a ERA .76 lower but trails in every other stat. It just seems like people either want to vote for Clemens because he has the lowest ERA or they want to vote for Carpenter because he has the most wins. Why not take a look at all their stats?
I agree. Clemens is doing awesome, but Carpenter owns him every category outside of ERA.
Not really. MOst batting categories favor Clemens. HR, BAA, OBP, etc...
IMHO. A starting pitcher's ultimate goal is to keep the opposition from scoring runs. Ws are too team dependent. Clemens has kept hitters off base and from scoring better than any other pitcher. Carpenter has been awesome to say the least but I really think Clemens deserves it. Therefore Carpenter will probably win the Cy.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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by Pogotheostrich » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:05 am 
