For a spot start, I'd roll with Padilla. However, I don't trust him at home, which is where I trust 90% of my SPs more than on the road, so the amount of times I'd feel comfortable actually putting him in my starting lineup wouldn't be enough for him to warrant a roster spot.
bigh0rt wrote:For a spot start, I'd roll with Padilla. However, I don't trust him at home, which is where I trust 90% of my SPs more than on the road, so the amount of times I'd feel comfortable actually putting him in my starting lineup wouldn't be enough for him to warrant a roster spot.
Except his recent streak has been mostly thanks to pitching at home...
bigh0rt wrote:For a spot start, I'd roll with Padilla. However, I don't trust him at home, which is where I trust 90% of my SPs more than on the road, so the amount of times I'd feel comfortable actually putting him in my starting lineup wouldn't be enough for him to warrant a roster spot.
Except his recent streak has been mostly thanks to pitching at home...
Yes, I did notice that. However, CBP is too much of a launchpad for me to feel comfortable, regardless. I don't carry any PHI pitchers, similarly to COL (with Fuentes as an exception), and CIN pitchers. I just don't feel comfortable starting them enough of the time to want them on my team.
bigh0rt wrote:For a spot start, I'd roll with Padilla. However, I don't trust him at home, which is where I trust 90% of my SPs more than on the road, so the amount of times I'd feel comfortable actually putting him in my starting lineup wouldn't be enough for him to warrant a roster spot.
Except his recent streak has been mostly thanks to pitching at home...
Yes, I did notice that. However, CBP is too much of a launchpad for me to feel comfortable, regardless. I don't carry any PHI pitchers, similarly to COL (with Fuentes as an exception), and CIN pitchers. I just don't feel comfortable starting them enough of the time to want them on my team.
These numbers belie the truth. A 1.21 WHIP will not result in a 1.46 ERA over time. And look at the ugly the 19:14 K:walk rate over the last four games. Now factor in that two of these games where against the sad sack Padres and Nats offenses, including a game in Petco and that Padilla, who had given up a bomb like every 4th inning, gave up none over 27 innings, which could be construed as a combination of a lucky streak and terrible opposing offenses.
There is nothing here to indicate that he has turned the corner any way. In fact, the evidence seems to be that he got a little lucky and will revert to his usual crappy fantasy resuts very shortly.
You might be right ... but 9 QSs is in a row certainly says something. There was some discussion on Padilla on MLB.com yesterday and the director of statistics said that Padilla has turned the corner. I think his analysis is generally sound.
Last night 3 hits over 8 innings and a win. Not bad.
Yeah that WHIP last night was brutal Anyways, nobody is saying hes like a keeper or something, hes just really hot right now and worth a pickup for the near future.
I think Padilla could be a stud if his health didn't suck so much.
he's another J.D. Drew, Ken Griffey. He'll be good when he's healthy, but don't expect that too often.
These numbers belie the truth. A 1.21 WHIP will not result in a 1.46 ERA over time. And look at the ugly the 19:14 K:walk rate over the last four games. Now factor in that two of these games where against the sad sack Padres and Nats offenses, including a game in Petco and that Padilla, who had given up a bomb like every 4th inning, gave up none over 27 innings, which could be construed as a combination of a lucky streak and terrible opposing offenses.
There is nothing here to indicate that he has turned the corner any way. In fact, the evidence seems to be that he got a little lucky and will revert to his usual crappy fantasy resuts very shortly.
There's plenty to say that he's turned it around. He was injured the last couple of years and has pitched simply terrible when he did play. He is not pitching terrible now, he's pitching great.
I also wouldn't call this years results "usual crappy fantasy stats" unless you discount any history in baseball. He had two years of sub 1.30 WHIP, mid 3ERA's and 14 wins. Not bad even if not stud and far from crappy.
Since the all-star break:
w-l IP w/k ERA WHIP
2-3 46.1 19/34 2.14 1.08
Not a real good W/9 or w/k, but a nice WHIP in a hitters park. I'd call that evidence.
If you haven't seen him play, one thing that he's changed from earlier this season is that he is working faster. He was always a slow worker, and this year he was even worse, taking forever to throw the ball. After getting shelled time and time again, the news was that he had one last chance as a starter. He changed things around that game, working quickly on the mound and its worked great. So there's more here then just a stretch of nice starts. He was on the blocks and has responded.
That's not to say he's a top pitcher now, or that he will keep it up, but he has certainely turned it around from where he was. Hope he keeps it up. For those of us in deeper leagues, instead of shallow all-star leagues, he's been a viable starter lately.
Last edited by swyck on Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hey, the guy had a good year a little while back so he deserves some credit with this run he's on. Quite possible he keeps it up, but I'm a little doubtful of that mainly due to the two Atlanta and Florida series in the middle of September. Compared to those teams he's walking on easy street now. Temper your expectations..
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by bigh0rt » Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:24 pm 
Anyways, nobody is saying hes like a keeper or something, hes just really hot right now and worth a pickup for the near future.
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