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Felix Hernandez auction value for next year in mags

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Postby ActionHero » Sun Aug 21, 2005 9:34 am

It seems to me another question to consider is whether you have a chance to win your league THIS YEAR. If you have no chance, then you should definitely start thinking about keepers -- and King Felix at < $10 is a much better keeper than Pedro at $25-$30. It's not even close.
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Aug 21, 2005 12:33 pm

I think published dollar values will list him somewhere between $10-$15 in a $260 format. But it won't be a realistic value since dollar value worth is really what people will be willing to spend and there will probably be one person in every draft willing to paying $20+.

I am going to go against the grain here and say that Felix is probably one of the best avoid candidates going into next year. He is no doubt special but people are going to overpay for him and I'm just not willing to pay ace money for what amounts to a rookie (despite his awesome potential).
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Postby dannyolbb » Sun Aug 21, 2005 1:10 pm

Amazinz wrote:I think published dollar values will list him somewhere between $10-$15 in a $260 format. But it won't be a realistic value since dollar value worth is really what people will be willing to spend and there will probably be one person in every draft willing to paying $20+.

I am going to go against the grain here and say that Felix is probably one of the best avoid candidates going into next year. He is no doubt special but people are going to overpay for him and I'm just not willing to pay ace money for what amounts to a rookie (despite his awesome potential).


I agree 100%. He will be overvalued because of the hype and because his weak opponent schedule this season makes him seem more polished and ready than he is.

Don't get me wrong: He's the best pitching prospect to come around in my conscious lifetime. However, I will give him a year of seasoning before overpaying. He had a 3.30 era in double-A this year, which is very good. But I wonder what that would be translated to the majors. I would think that somewhere around 4 would be just about right. He is just 19 years old. Don't forget that. No matter how good he is, there will be bumps in the road and Seattle should (and will, I think) take their time in developing him. They don't want to Dwight Gooden him and have his career nosedive in 2008.
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Postby Vetterstrom » Sun Aug 21, 2005 1:26 pm

Felix pitched exclusively in AAA this year, not AA, and his ERA was not 3.30, it was a much more impressive 2.25. ;-D
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Postby hybrid » Sun Aug 21, 2005 1:33 pm

I'm for the most part right w/ Amazinz on this one. I wouldn't mind over paying some for Felix, but chances are in an auction league he will go for more $ then he should. While he could perform very well, he could also get hurt or have 1 of many things go wrong.

Oh and yeah he had a 3.30 ERA in AA, but that was last year when he was 18.
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Postby dannyolbb » Sun Aug 21, 2005 1:43 pm

Vetterstrom wrote:Felix pitched exclusively in AAA this year, not AA, and his ERA was not 3.30, it was a much more impressive 2.25. ;-D


Sorry. I just grabbed the stats from the baseball cube. I didn't look closely enough to realize that they don't update until the offseason.

About the 2.25 era, what league was he pitching in? Out of curiousity.
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Postby hybrid » Sun Aug 21, 2005 1:51 pm

dannyolbb wrote:About the 2.25 era, what league was he pitching in? Out of curiousity.


The PCL, Pacific Coast League which is a very hitter friendly league.
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Postby The Roto Authority » Sun Aug 21, 2005 4:02 pm

yeah the mags will put felix around $15, but as with kerry wood every year, bidding wars will escalate his price into the high 20s. we had bonderman going for almost $20 before this season mostly because he was a top sleeper in every mag. i hate how the magazines can ruin your best sleepers by letting less informed people know about them.
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