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Postby mcqfesijiba » Fri Aug 19, 2005 4:28 pm

TB13 wrote:
mcqfesijiba wrote:There's no guarantee that he will totally crash. While I'm not totally confident that he will retain a .300+ BA, I do think he will remain productive all year.


Guarantee? No. However, history points to the fact that such hitting aberrations are very rare. His alarmingly high strikeout rate and the fact that he NEVER walks, points to a crash sooner or latter. There are just not that many people that can hit for such a high average, while continuing to not take walks and strike our at an Adam Dunn-like rate. This means that unless he gets a hit, he does not have productive at-bats. Statistically speaking, most of the time hitters like that fail. Off course there are noteable exceptions, however history tells you that unless he improves his plate discipline, eventually the league will catch up to him.
Yeah, I think we all know about the sabremetrics, but as I said before, had I not been watching this guy play on TV and seeing some rare talents for a 21 year old, I would be down on him too. In fact, I was down on him when he first came up before having seen him play and convinced he wasn't ready at all. There are few comparisons to this guy that come to mind, but my opinion based on what I've seen is that he will be pretty good regardless of plate discipline, but if he gains even decent plate discipline, we are looking at a star. Yeah, he may not be winning batting titles as it is, but if the ball is anywhere within 6 inches of the strike zone, this guy can crush it. And that throwing arm in right field is amazing. In my opinion he already has one of the best outfield arms in the game.

I also can't wait to see Marte finally become a regular next year. He and McCann are two guys I think sabremetrics fans will really take a liking to.

By the way, I certainly know about how bad plate discipline can be a problem. I've been a Tigers fan for years, and this franchise has seen the biggest strikeout kings come through, while having very few players who excel at drawing walks. And it has been painful watching some of these guys come through.
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Postby EnFuego » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:27 pm

Mr. Francoeur is 2-2 today so far with a run. ;-D
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Postby nuggets » Sun Aug 21, 2005 2:33 am

Big Franc

vs "Good" pitchers:

Vazquez: 1/2, HR, 3 RBI, 1K

Odalis Perez: 2/3, HR, triple, 2 RBI

D. Lowe: 0/2, 1 SB

Dream Weaver: 0/3, 2K

Capuano: 1/3, HR, 2 RBI, K

Doug Davis: 0/3

Mesa: 0/1 K

Duke: 1/2, double

Scott Linebrink: 0/1

Noah Lowry: 3/3, HR, 2 RBI

Mulder: 2/3, double, K

vs "Great" pitchers:

Sheets 1/1

Pedro 0/1

Schimdt 0/3 1K

Carpenter 1/3, HR, 2K

Isringhausen 1/1, double, rbi


Overall Totals 13/35 .371 AVG,

Wow that is so strange it is pretty much equal to his season average, (nee nee neenee nee nee neenee)

Yes this "analysis" is totally subjective, under sampled and possibly useless, but what it shows me is that there is an even greater chance for this guy to be good.

Pujols came out of no where too. Yes the best hitter in the game was not a touted prospect. Think about this when giving credibility to scouts and "smart" baseball guys.

My impression is that Big Franc has more trouble versus pitchers who throw a cutter or hard slider and does better vs curveball and off speed reliant pitchers.

Time to make that required player comparison: Dale Murphy. But really, it looks like Franc could be a lot like the Murph.
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Postby DK » Sun Aug 21, 2005 4:08 am

Can anyone say Kevin Maas? ;-7

Except Maas could actually take a pitch.
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Postby reiser » Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:36 am

TB13 wrote: Guarantee? No. However, history points to the fact that such hitting aberrations are very rare.


what are you talking about? there's at least 4 or 5 very productive players right now who never walk-Jose Guillen (21 walks this year), Sorioano (90/20 K/BB), Aramis Ramierez, Garrett Anderson annually never takes a walk. etc.

I too am surprised pitchers aren't being more aggressive with him, but it's certainly not very rare for major leaguer's to rarely walk.
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Postby mcqfesijiba » Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:36 am

DK wrote:Can anyone say Kevin Maas? ;-7

Except Maas could actually take a pitch.
Not quite sure what that has to do with Francoeur, but Maas could take more than just "a pitch". Maas walked quite a bit. 126 BBs in his first 227 games.
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Postby reiser » Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:39 am

mcqfesijiba wrote:
DK wrote:Can anyone say Kevin Maas? ;-7

Except Maas could actually take a pitch.
Not quite sure what that has to do with Francoeur, but Maas could take more than just "a pitch". Maas walked quite a bit. 126 BBs in his first 227 games.


Mark Quinn-
http://www.yard-work.org/?cat=146
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Postby Pokeyouindaeye » Sun Aug 21, 2005 3:03 pm

lol, someone's a bit bitter about their major league stint...
Yes, I was, uh... I was thinking about ordering the tape, the videotape... about the college girls and the... the wild... the wildness. They're going wild or something? Somebody told me... about going wild.
-Larry David
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Sun Aug 21, 2005 3:33 pm

reiser wrote:
TB13 wrote: Guarantee? No. However, history points to the fact that such hitting aberrations are very rare.


what are you talking about? there's at least 4 or 5 very productive players right now who never walk-Jose Guillen (21 walks this year), Sorioano (90/20 K/BB), Aramis Ramierez, Garrett Anderson annually never takes a walk. etc.

I too am surprised pitchers aren't being more aggressive with him, but it's certainly not very rare for major leaguer's to rarely walk.


If Francoeur actually walked even *once* -- well, ok, he'd probably have to walk a few times before people stop talking about it :D -- then this would not be such an issue. Can you define "rarely walk" please? Like once in a while or never having done it? :D So far, I'm wondering if Francoeur won't finish the year w/ *zero* non-intentional BBs. When he faced Duke a week or two ago, Duke -- the finese pitcher that he is -- just threw one at him, instead of bothering w/ an IBB -- maybe you can't even intentionally walk the guy. :D
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Postby mcqfesijiba » Sun Aug 21, 2005 5:37 pm

reiser wrote:
mcqfesijiba wrote:
DK wrote:Can anyone say Kevin Maas? ;-7

Except Maas could actually take a pitch.
Not quite sure what that has to do with Francoeur, but Maas could take more than just "a pitch". Maas walked quite a bit. 126 BBs in his first 227 games.


Mark Quinn-
http://www.yard-work.org/?cat=146
Ok, I've been reminded of how Kevin Maas (and I guess Mark Quinn, too) have some relation to what Francoeur is doing. I was only 10 years old at the time, so I didn't remember the specifics of Kevin Maas, except that he had a pretty good second half and his baseball card was a hot commodity. As it turns out he had that run in the second half of 1990 when I think Mattingly was hurt and hit HR's at a rate that few rookies had ever done before. Although, that's about where the similarities end. Maas and Quinn were only mediocre at best prospects (neither ever appeared on a BA top 100 prospects list, but I don't know about any other lists from those time periods), while Francoeur has been recognized for his talents pretty much since the day he was drafted (he's made the BA list 2003-2005, along with many others). It should be interesting to see how far he goes, since it seems the sabremetrics lovers among us have Francoeur pegged for a quick fall.
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