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Postby EnFuego » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:12 pm

Yoda wrote:
Sultans of Squat wrote:Well, actually, he did have a mini-crash there for 4-5 games. But while I too never believed he'd keep up the ridiculous pace he was on, he does seem to be an exceptionally good talent doing extraordinary things so far.

Maybe someone else more knowledgeable can pull up a couple other past young stud prospects for better comparison, but so far, I don't know of any that quite compares to Francoeur in his rookie run. I don't know of anybody this good going w/out a single BB for so long. Soriano's the only one I can think of, but he wasn't nearly this hot w/ the bat in the first month of his official rookie year -- and not even close in his original debut period. Also, Soriano was much older in his rookie year at the official age of 25.

So maybe Francoeur is unique enough to be that one great young phenom to be the exception to the rule even when we account for guys like Soriano, Vlad, Cabrera, Mondesi, et al.


It's only 30 games. I'm sure it's happened before. Again, I think he will be a pretty good player but the hitting will slow down dramatically (esp AVG) unless he is more selective at the plate.


I also think he will falter, but till then enjoy this great, great hot streak he is having.
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:18 pm

Hehheh. Admittedly, I *hope* he falters big time as I passed on him even in my dynasty-like keeper league. :D I felt there are enough promising OF stud prospects coming (along w/ the existing proven ones) that I could make better use w/ my roster spots. Of course, it does help that I already own both Dunn and Bay along w/ Swisher and Mr. J DL-guy Drew -- and still have Bonds sitting in my DL slot too. :D
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Postby TB13 » Fri Aug 19, 2005 9:07 am

mcqfesijiba wrote:There's no guarantee that he will totally crash. While I'm not totally confident that he will retain a .300+ BA, I do think he will remain productive all year.


Guarantee? No. However, history points to the fact that such hitting aberrations are very rare. His alarmingly high strikeout rate and the fact that he NEVER walks, points to a crash sooner or latter. There are just not that many people that can hit for such a high average, while continuing to not take walks and strike our at an Adam Dunn-like rate. This means that unless he gets a hit, he does not have productive at-bats. Statistically speaking, most of the time hitters like that fail. Off course there are noteable exceptions, however history tells you that unless he improves his plate discipline, eventually the league will catch up to him.
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Postby Jack-In-A-Box » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:11 pm

Yoda wrote:
It's only 30 games. I'm sure it's happened before. Again, I think he will be a pretty good player but the hitting will slow down dramatically (esp AVG) unless he is more selective at the plate.



You are correct. It has happened before. Might have heard of him.. Pujols. Only Pujols and Francoeur have hit as many HR in their first 30 games in the bigs. Maybe we should give the guy a little more credit than we are. I can tell you this, it has been a true joy to watch him play this year.

I got one thing for everyone to think about. How many years has it been now that everyone is doubting the Braves run at the playoffs? Well, scary thing is the Braves just got a lot younger this year and with an 80 million dollar payroll the Braves could win the division for the next 5-6 years easy. Gonna be a while until people start doubting the Braves again after the play of all these rookies that will be fixtures in the lineup for years to come. Good luck NL EAST at the wildcard! :-D
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Postby joeg24 » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:15 pm

Yeah the Braves need more credit and arn't doing it their normal 3 stud pitcher style of years past. Really scary thing is Francoeur a month ago wasn't really regarded as their top prospect!

So whats the move next year? Chipper to 1B? To OF? Marte to OF if Chipper stays? Are they keeping Marcus?
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Re: ds

Postby Jack-In-A-Box » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:26 pm

joeg24 wrote:Yeah the Braves need more credit and arn't doing it their normal 3 stud pitcher style of years past. Really scary thing is Francoeur a month ago wasn't really regarded as their top prospect!

So whats the move next year? Chipper to 1B? To OF? Marte to OF if Chipper stays? Are they keeping Marcus?


No idea what is next. The Sporting News said the Braves tried to trade M.Giles before the deadline. (M.Giles, J.Sosa and a PTBN for Soriano, Mench) I wouldn't have liked that. Giles does all the little things, plays better D and is the teams biggest sparkplug and cheerleader. Before this year all I heard was this was Furcal's last year. Maybe Marte learns OF and Betitmet plays SS? Braves have so many options now that they can trade from the serious depth they have around the IF and shore up this shaky at best bullpen.
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Postby StlSluggers » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:30 pm

I agree with everyone.

:-D

Seriously, I do. I agree that he's probably going to be a very good player. I also agree that his lack of BBs is a serious potential long-term problem that he needs to correct if he wants to even come close to keeping up this type of production in the long term.

I managed to pick him up in one keeper league. Here's to hoping he's the real deal.

;-D
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Postby joeg24 » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:30 pm

Are Kelly Johnson and Langerhans big parts of the future of more fill ins?

I've never loved the Braves however as most of us have, grew up watching them on TV due to TBS.

Quite a run though, especially in a division with some free spenders like the Mets.
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Postby Sultans of Squat » Fri Aug 19, 2005 1:36 pm

Jack-In-A-Box wrote:
Yoda wrote:
It's only 30 games. I'm sure it's happened before. Again, I think he will be a pretty good player but the hitting will slow down dramatically (esp AVG) unless he is more selective at the plate.



You are correct. It has happened before. Might have heard of him.. Pujols. Only Pujols and Francoeur have hit as many HR in their first 30 games in the bigs. Maybe we should give the guy a little more credit than we are. I can tell you this, it has been a true joy to watch him play this year.


Actually, that's probably no better comparison than some of the others. I don't have Pujols' first 30-game stats in front of me, but I can see his monthly stats for his rookie year on Yahoo. Yes, the main production stats look similar enough, but even Pujols walked as often as he hit HRs back then -- and 2-3x as often by year's end. Our point is that Francoeur *still* hasn't walked even once yet. And because of that, I don't know of any truly good comparisons. And w/out such, there's not much to go on for a prediction about Francoeur. Yes, I'm sure he'll cool down -- and already has to some extent -- but it's hard to predict how far he might fall or for how long w/out better comparisons.
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Re: ds

Postby TB13 » Fri Aug 19, 2005 2:52 pm

joeg24 wrote:So whats the move next year? Chipper to 1B?


That seems to be the lates rumor. When Marte is ready, he goes to 3rd & Chipper fo 1st.
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