Jhonny Peralta the next Tejada?

[AT]

I've owned this guy for most of the season in my mixed 9 team deep rostered league ever since I read somewhere he was a AAA POTY and had a big May. I've been ripping on Tristan Cockcroft or whatever his name is from ESPN for low-balling the guy's projections and ended up having this exchange with Eric Karabell today...

Matt: (Long Island, NY): Eric, I've been taking some light-hearted jabs at Tristen for blowing it on the Peralta projections and am wondering if you'll take a position... Now that he's hitting .385 for the last week with 8 RBI and 2HR, with a solid .326, 13R, and 21 RBI! for the last month, where do YOU see him amongst ML shortstop rankings?

Eric Karabell: (10:27 AM ET ) Peralta is a young Miggy Tejada. Great power, right handed hitter, and on his way in the future to 30-100 seasons. The Indians are hitting Peralta third for a reason. He's their top right handed hitter, and along with Hafner that lineup is very nice. I think we all misread Peralta in March, though I did expect he could 15 or so home runs. To see a guy like this be even better like that, I don't think you nor the Indians thought it possible. Let's just enjoy this guy's stats.

Matt: Long Island, NY: Wow a Young Miggy Tejada. Now that's taking a position...atta boy Eric. Good stuff man.

Eric Karabell: (10:31 AM ET ) Look up Tejada's numbers before he became a monster, and Peralta's doing the same thing. I think it's reasonable to expect - if he hits 3rd or 4th again - a 30-100 season from Peralta next season. For real.

So of course I did... and here they are...

Tejada's first 3 reasonably full seasons look like the following:
(before he may have been juicing but that's for a different topic)

1998 OAK 365 AB's, 53R, 11HR, 45RBI, .233 Avg.
1999 OAK 593 AB's, 93R, 21HR, 84RBI, .251 Avg.
2000 OAK 607 AB's, 105R, 30HR, 115RBI, .275 Avg.

Also, for reference...Tejada's Minor League #'s

1996 A Ball @ Modesto in 458 AB's, 97R, 20HR, 72RBI, 27SB, .279 Avg.
1997 AA @ Huntsville in 502 AB's, 85R, 22HR, 97RBI, 15SB, .275 Avg.

Now take a gander at how Peralta matches up...

2005 CLE 321 AB's, 49R, 16HR, 54RBI, .305 Avg.

Peralta's Minor League #'s

2003 AAA Buffalo in 237 AB's, 25R, 1HR, 21RBI, .257 Avg
2004 AAA Buffalo in 556 AB's, 109R, 15HR, 86RBI, 8SB, .326 Avg

I know you're looking at the 2003 and 2004 HR discrepency. He hit 15 Homers in 2002 at AA Akron.

Tejada was 22 in his first full ML Season in 1998 and Peralta is 23 now.

Now I'm not saying Peralta will perform up to Tejada's MVP level like Karabell suggested, but I will say that he's going to be a TOP 3 SS in the next 2 years behind Young and Tejada.

[Kingctb27]

He may be the next best SS, but I doubt he'll ever win a MVP or knock in 150 runs.

[go_jays_go]

He certainly looks real good. I think he has the potential to put up Miggy stats later on in his career.

[mwb743s]

He may be the next best SS, but I doubt he'll ever win a MVP or knock in 150 runs.

I can agree with this, but you never know.

AT you did your homework and I cant argue with those numbers.

I definetely see him being a top SS the next 2 yrs.

Good Work

[Yoda]

Peralta is nowhere near the prospect that Tejada was. He's having a fine season and there is a chance he will get better. Don't bet on it though.

[Drunken Rhino]

He and Crosby and Barmes are ushering in a new crop of young power SSs.

I think he could be every bit the MVP candidate that Tejada was in Oakland. He's got a cast around him about the same age locked into long term contracts w/ Sizemore, Vmart and Hafner. It could happen in 3 years or so. But I'm not going to hold my breath to wait for it to happen.

I don't think he's as good as Tejada is definsively, but he is only 23. This doesn't mean I'd want him on my team instead of Tejada, but the potential is there.

[warrick95]

I'm still not sold on him. Mike Young is a possibility, but my jaw would drop if he became a Tejada. His tools have never wowed you. Even though the longer he keeps this up the harder it is to doubt him. The numbers certainly do back up your claim, though.

I've always liked Brandon Phillips more than him. Boy was I wrong on that.

[bigh0rt]

I'm absolutely loving Peralta for future seasons. With the lack of quality SS to go around, this guy will be a steal until people realize how talented he is.

[hybrid]

I'm with Yoda on this, he has never been as good as Tejada. He will defiantly will never be a top 3 SS, he just doesn't have that type of talent. If you look at his minor league numbers they have all been average to bad, except for last year in AAA. So with that said maybe he is a late bloomer and will turn into a nice SS, but that's about it.

[AT]

He's 23. Barely.