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Postby The_Met_Threat » Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:00 pm

Umm ya, did i ever say Sheff is a terrible player? No ive said he was a early second round pick but i would not put him in my first round. Me saying he is unpredictable is based on the fact that he tanked a whole freaking season so that he can get traded. I dont know many other players who have done that, so i think that allows a player to be called unpredictable. I reached for it because your projections were wrong. Even tho only slightly wrong.

I mean if your proving hes a great player at least be accurate about it right?

In the 5 extra games Sheff would of played, when comparing your predictions. He'd hit.

4 Runs - 1 HR - 4 RBI

So actually -3hr, -15 runs, +1 rbi. this season.

Those are actually pretty different numbers don't you think? I mean hes been killing the ball all his career, if he went early 3rd with a great season (maybe mvp season) last year, why boost him into the first round with a slightly worse season. Maybe my first rounders were based on a H2H league, where really i dont care if sheff gets 8 sb or has a .300 avg. This is my personal opinion nobody has to follow my top 12, anyone could slip into the top 12 as i said, i just showed some examples. Anything can happen at seasons end, but as of now Sheff is out of MY first round. I am done.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:24 pm

The_Met_Threat wrote:Umm ya, did i ever say Sheff is a terrible player? No ive said he was a early second round pick but i would not put him in my first round. Me saying he is unpredictable is based on the fact that he tanked a whole freaking season so that he can get traded. I dont know many other players who have done that, so i think that allows a player to be called unpredictable. I reached for it because your projections were wrong. Even tho only slightly wrong.

I mean if your proving hes a great player at least be accurate about it right?

In the 5 extra games Sheff would of played, when comparing your predictions. He'd hit.

4 Runs - 1 HR - 4 RBI

So actually -3hr, -15 runs, +1 rbi. this season.

Those are actually pretty different numbers don't you think? I mean hes been killing the ball all his career, if he went early 3rd with a great season (maybe mvp season) last year, why boost him into the first round with a slightly worse season. Maybe my first rounders were based on a H2H league, where really i dont care if sheff gets 8 sb or has a .300 avg. This is my personal opinion nobody has to follow my top 12, anyone could slip into the top 12 as i said, i just showed some examples. Anything can happen at seasons end, but as of now Sheff is out of MY first round. I am done.


First of all, after 4 straight posts in which you basically trashed the idea of even considering Sheffield based on nothing but "he's unpredictable because a decade ago he tanked", you finally conceded that he's an early second round pick. If your initial reaction had been more rational, rather than a knee-jerk dismissal of even considering Sheffield based upon questionable data older than sin, my reaction might have been different.

Second, no those numbers are not different at all. They'll lead to literally no difference in player rankings, especially when you ignore the cats where he is improving, with 15 points higher BA and 5+ more SBs.

In fact, as the player rankings I posted show, his combination of stats lead to him having a BETTER year this year, not a worse year, based on the typical 5x5 categories. Sure, different systems lead to different rankings, but in most cases here in the cafe when we talk about overall player rankings we go 5x5 and then allow people to tweak based on their particular league.

Sheffield is at least as deserving of first round consideration as a lot of guys included on these lists. He's been more consistently a top 15 hitter than Ortiz, Abreu, Soriano, DLee, ARam, Tejada, Beltran, or Helton. I might give you MCab, Tex, and a few of the younger guys who might explode even more, but Sheff deserves to be on the same plane as the others.
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Postby tuff_gong » Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:44 pm

Yoda wrote:I won't be taking any pitchers with my first 4 picks. That is for sure.


me neither, after taking RJ in the 2nd round, i've learned my lesson one too many times.
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Postby LooseCannon » Mon Aug 08, 2005 6:58 pm

tuff_gong wrote:
Yoda wrote:I won't be taking any pitchers with my first 4 picks. That is for sure.


me neither, after taking RJ in the 2nd round, i've learned my lesson one too many times.


Make it first 5.......
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Postby rotterdam_82 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 7:08 pm

I'm taking one in the 4th, but it is a keeper league. I guess I'll be a little flexible if I'm at the end (say anyhere from 10-12) and I have a couple of picks together.

I mean, you never know, Johan may slip till the 3rd :-o
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Postby Yoda » Mon Aug 08, 2005 7:20 pm

LooseCannon wrote:
tuff_gong wrote:
Yoda wrote:I won't be taking any pitchers with my first 4 picks. That is for sure.


me neither, after taking RJ in the 2nd round, i've learned my lesson one too many times.


Make it first 5.......


Yeah I probably won't take one until about the 6th or 7th come to think of it.

There will be plenty of pitchers available that is for sure.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Aug 08, 2005 7:24 pm

Pitchers consistently good enough to be considered possible first rounders:

Pedro
Rivera (only guys ranking in top 15 pitchers each year for 2003-05).

Clemens, Oswalt, Santana, Halladay, Smoltz, Nathan, Gagne, Schmidt: all ranked in top 15 pitchers 2 of last 3 years, because of recent injuries and probably retirement, you can probably drop the first one and last two).

Youngsters worth considering: Peavy and Sheets
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Postby rainman23 » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:17 pm

I can't believe I've seen anybody speculate on Helton as a 1rst rounder. Even if you think he deserves it off this season, you can't take him there. Because odds are real good he'll still be there a couple rounds later.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:23 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Pitchers consistently good enough to be considered possible first rounders:

Pedro
Rivera (only guys ranking in top 15 pitchers each year for 2003-05).

Clemens, Oswalt, Santana, Halladay, Smoltz, Nathan, Gagne, Schmidt: all ranked in top 15 pitchers 2 of last 3 years, because of recent injuries and probably retirement, you can probably drop the first one and last two).

Youngsters worth considering: Peavy and Sheets


Your actually considering taking closers first round? Fantasy drafts are all about getting the most value for your pick. I think that every closer will slide to the 3rd round, so why take them in the first.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Aug 08, 2005 8:59 pm

There are two different issues. One is whether a pick is worth taking in the first round. On that basis, I'd say certainly Rivera is worth it, and possibly Nathan. One of the things that I think people are not paying enough attention to is the consistency of performace. If I'm making a guy my first round pick, I want to be DAMN sure it's not a waste. Among pitchers, Rivera is among the few who have been so damn consistently a top performer, that he'd be worth a first round pick.

The second issue, however is strategy. If my opponents are silly enough to make arbitrary rules like, "don't take a pitcher" or "don't take a closer", then I take advantage to that. This allows me to grab a great hitter in round 1 and a great but undervalued closer in round two or three, essentially getting two first round picks, while they waste a first, second or third round pick on a less consistent hitter.
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