In no order, I think Prior, Felix, Santana, Oswalt, and Harden. Or maybe Halladay, Peavy, Sheets, Beckett, and Willis. You can flip a coin and be happy with either roataion on your team.
As for projecting Felix to be so good, 5 years ago, Peavy was in the minors, Sheets was a rookie with a 4.76 ERA, Oswalt was a rookie and Prior was a senior at USC, Harden was in rookie ball etc. You can make good cases for all these guys and more that they are top 5 now. Pitching is too unpredictable. I bet 5 years ago nobody though Pedro and Randy would still be top 5 starters....
In no order:
Santana, Beckett, Harden, Prior, Sheets
Next Five: Oswalt, F. Hernandez, Peavy, Halladay, AJ Burnett
Kazmir is a nice sleeper. Wood has always been a great thrower...can he turn the corner after however many years it's been? Ollie is another thrower who'll have time to learn how to pitch. He's a huge injury risk, though.
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