OK, I pulled the Sports Fanatics top 40 rankings from the beginning of the 2005 season. Quick unscientific look over. Bonds is not noted as I guess it was done after he got hurt. It is interesting to note the results of these picks:
1 Alex Rodriguez NYY 29.7 3b - OK/in line with expectations
2 Vladimir Guerrero ANA 29.2 OF - OK
3 Albert Pujols STL 25.2 1B - OK
4 Carlos Beltran NYM 28.0 OF - HUGE BUST
5 Bobby Abreu PHI 31.1 OF - OK
6 Todd Helton COL 31.6 1B - HUGE BUST
7 Manny Ramirez BOS 32.9 OF - OK
8 Johan Santana MIN 26.1 SP - Mild Bust
9 Adrian Beltre SEA 26.0 3B - HUGE BUST
10 Miguel Tejada BAL 28.9 SS - OK
11 Randy Johnson NYY 41.6 SP - Bust to Mild Bust
12 Scott Rolen STL 30.0 3B - BUST
13 Ichiro Suzuki SEA 31.5 OF - Mild BUST
14 Miguel Cabrera FLA 22.0 OF - OK
15 Carl Crawford TB 23.7 OF - OK
16 Mark Teixeira TEX 25.0 1B - OK
17 Eric Gagne LA 29.3 CL - HUGE BUST
18 Derek Jeter NYY 30.8 SS - OK
19 Jim Edmonds STL 34.8 OF - OK
20 David Ortiz BOS 29.4 1B - OK
21 Gary Sheffield NYY 36.4 OF - OK
22 Adam Dunn CIN 25.4 OF - OK
23 Alfonso Soriano TEX 29.3 2B - OK
24 Johnny Damon BOS 31.4 OF - OK
25 Aaron Rowand CHW 27.6 OF - HUGE BUST
26 Mariano Rivera NYY 35.4 CL - OK
27 Jason Schmidt SF 32.2 SP - HUGE BUST
28 Francisco Rodriguez ANA 23.2 CL - OK
29 Ben Sheets MIL 26.7 SP - BUST
30 Hideki Matsui NYY 30.8 OF - OK
31 Hank Blalock TEX 24.4 3B - OK
32 Brad Lidge HOU 28.3 CL - OK
33 Jake Peavy SD 23.9 SP - OK
34 Michael Young TEX 28.5 SS - OK
35 Jim Thome PHI 34.6 1B - HUGE BUST
36 Juan Pierre FLA 27.6 OF - BUST
37 Corey Patterson CHC 25.7 OF - HUGE BUST
38 Carlos Lee MIL 28.8 OF - OK
39 Eric Chavez OAK 27.3 3B - OK
40 Oliver Perez PIT 23.6 SP - HUGE BUST
9 Huge Busts = 22.5%
6 Bust or mild Bust = 15%
25 OK = 62.5%
So, the elite players in the game have busted at a rate of 37.5% or roughly 2 in 5. Am I the only one that thinks this is just odd for 4 picks in every 10 of the first 4 round to result in disappointment, many in huge disappointment.
Pierre was not a bust... last month he stole a career high 18 bases and batted around .300... yes his overall average is low but he has the 3rd most steals in baseball... thats not a bust by my calculations.
Missed time. Numbers not in line with pre-season expectations. 7 Wins in August...only 116 IPs. You want to call it mild bust, fine...but for a top 3 round selection, those numbers are not what you would have expected.
YardBirds wrote:Pierre was not a bust... last month he stole a career high 18 bases and batted around .300... yes his overall average is low but he has the 3rd most steals in baseball... thats not a bust by my calculations.
It is if you draft him that high. You were not expecting
272 but more like 315. That is a huge loss in value for a guy that only contributes in SBS and runs and kills you in Hrs and rbis.
I don't know that 37.5 percent is abnormal.
Guys like Gagne, Thome, Rolen, OlPerez and even Sheets clearly were derailed by injury; there's always gonna be some of that.
Then you've got the Beltre/Patterson/Rowand crowd who were rated higher than they probably should have been given the short track records of high performance.
Ichiro has had a dud stretch every year except '01 (yes, even the first six weeks of his 262-hit '04), but he and Pierre are coming on.
Beltran and Helton are the only truly inexplicable guys on there.
I wouldn't consider an injury as a bust. Poor performance and fallure to meet expectations is far more detrimental to a team. I would rather know I guy I planned to rely on will be on the DL than having someone in my lineup who is dragging me down with a lack of production.