A look back at the top 40.

[TheYanks04]

OK, I pulled the Sports Fanatics top 40 rankings from the beginning of the 2005 season. Quick unscientific look over. Bonds is not noted as I guess it was done after he got hurt. It is interesting to note the results of these picks:


1 Alex Rodriguez NYY 29.7 3b - OK/in line with expectations
2 Vladimir Guerrero ANA 29.2 OF - OK
3 Albert Pujols STL 25.2 1B - OK
4 Carlos Beltran NYM 28.0 OF - HUGE BUST
5 Bobby Abreu PHI 31.1 OF - OK
6 Todd Helton COL 31.6 1B - HUGE BUST
7 Manny Ramirez BOS 32.9 OF - OK
8 Johan Santana MIN 26.1 SP - Mild Bust
9 Adrian Beltre SEA 26.0 3B - HUGE BUST
10 Miguel Tejada BAL 28.9 SS - OK
11 Randy Johnson NYY 41.6 SP - Bust to Mild Bust
12 Scott Rolen STL 30.0 3B - BUST
13 Ichiro Suzuki SEA 31.5 OF - Mild BUST
14 Miguel Cabrera FLA 22.0 OF - OK
15 Carl Crawford TB 23.7 OF - OK
16 Mark Teixeira TEX 25.0 1B - OK
17 Eric Gagne LA 29.3 CL - HUGE BUST
18 Derek Jeter NYY 30.8 SS - OK
19 Jim Edmonds STL 34.8 OF - OK
20 David Ortiz BOS 29.4 1B - OK
21 Gary Sheffield NYY 36.4 OF - OK
22 Adam Dunn CIN 25.4 OF - OK
23 Alfonso Soriano TEX 29.3 2B - OK
24 Johnny Damon BOS 31.4 OF - OK
25 Aaron Rowand CHW 27.6 OF - HUGE BUST
26 Mariano Rivera NYY 35.4 CL - OK
27 Jason Schmidt SF 32.2 SP - HUGE BUST
28 Francisco Rodriguez ANA 23.2 CL - OK
29 Ben Sheets MIL 26.7 SP - BUST
30 Hideki Matsui NYY 30.8 OF - OK
31 Hank Blalock TEX 24.4 3B - OK
32 Brad Lidge HOU 28.3 CL - OK
33 Jake Peavy SD 23.9 SP - OK
34 Michael Young TEX 28.5 SS - OK
35 Jim Thome PHI 34.6 1B - HUGE BUST
36 Juan Pierre FLA 27.6 OF - BUST
37 Corey Patterson CHC 25.7 OF - HUGE BUST
38 Carlos Lee MIL 28.8 OF - OK
39 Eric Chavez OAK 27.3 3B - OK
40 Oliver Perez PIT 23.6 SP - HUGE BUST



Count:
9 Huge Busts = 22.5%
6 Bust or mild Bust = 15%
25 OK = 62.5%


So, the elite players in the game have busted at a rate of 37.5% or roughly 2 in 5. Am I the only one that thinks this is just odd for 4 picks in every 10 of the first 4 round to result in disappointment, many in huge disappointment.

[DK]

Can you find an order in which they were picked? I highly doubt Aaron Rowand was taken in the top 4 rounds of any normal draft.

[TheYanks04]

I tried to get that. ESPN was the only site I know of that had that info and they have adjusted their picks for mid-season leagues so that is sort of useless info now for this purpose.

[YardBirds]

Where do you get that Sheets is a bust... he is up to 7 Wins and good k/bb... other then his ear drum injury time down, he has only been shelled twice, i think

[YardBirds]

Pierre was not a bust... last month he stole a career high 18 bases and batted around .300... yes his overall average is low but he has the 3rd most steals in baseball... thats not a bust by my calculations.

[TheYanks04]

Missed time. Numbers not in line with pre-season expectations. 7 Wins in August...only 116 IPs. You want to call it mild bust, fine...but for a top 3 round selection, those numbers are not what you would have expected.

[TheYanks04]

Pierre was not a bust... last month he stole a career high 18 bases and batted around .300... yes his overall average is low but he has the 3rd most steals in baseball... thats not a bust by my calculations.

It is if you draft him that high. You were not expecting

272 but more like 315. That is a huge loss in value for a guy that only contributes in SBS and runs and kills you in Hrs and rbis.

[AKhomebrewer]

I don't know that 37.5 percent is abnormal.
Guys like Gagne, Thome, Rolen, OlPerez and even Sheets clearly were derailed by injury; there's always gonna be some of that.
Then you've got the Beltre/Patterson/Rowand crowd who were rated higher than they probably should have been given the short track records of high performance.
Ichiro has had a dud stretch every year except '01 (yes, even the first six weeks of his 262-hit '04), but he and Pierre are coming on.
Beltran and Helton are the only truly inexplicable guys on there.

[bd3521]

Here is some ADP data i found...

Rank Player Avg Pos HI/LO PCT
1 Pujols, Albert 1B STL 4.43 1/16 100.1
2 Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY 7.54 1/33 100.1
3 Santana, Johan SP MIN 9.71 2/21 99.3
4 Guerrero, Vladimir RF ANA 9.75 2/40 100.1
5 Ramirez, Manny LF BOS 13.08 5/28 100.1
6 Tejada, Miguel SS BAL 13.11 3/35 100.1
7 Abreu, Bobby RF PHI 14.11 4/38 100.0
8 Johnson, Randy SP NYY 14.26 1/52 99.4
9 Beltran, Carlos CF NYM 16.81 1/90 100.1
10 Soriano, Alfonso 2B TEX 21.27 6/66 100.0
11 Schmidt, Jason SP SF 21.53 3/97 98.9
12 Helton, Todd 1B COL Calf: 15-day DL. Out until mid-August 23.04 4/85 99.3
13 Gagne, Eric RP LA Elbow: 15-day DL. Out for the season 31.00 5/109 89.4
14 Cabrera, Miguel M. RF FLA 31.98 14/55 99.9
15 Rolen, Scott 3B STL Shoulder: 15-day DL. Out until at least mid-August 32.27 8/103 95.5
16 Suzuki, Ichiro RF SEA 32.75 9/69 99.8
17 Teixeira, Mark 1B TEX 32.93 11/64 99.9
18 Schilling, Curt SP BOS 34.12 6/131 96.4
19 Sheets, Ben SP MIL 34.50 6/130 98.6
20 Ortiz, David DH BOS 35.04 10/68 99.7
21 Dunn, Adam LF CIN 35.20 12/73 99.7
22 Oswalt, Roy SP HOU 35.49 9/70 99.2
23 Rivera, Mariano RP NYY 35.78 12/79 98.9
24 Martinez, Pedro SP NYM 35.84 5/81 99.1
25 Prior, Mark SP CHC 36.82 8/103 99.1
26 Jeter, Derek SS NYY 37.84 13/76 99.9
27 Sheffield, Gary RF NYY 38.16 13/70 100.0
28 Crawford, Carl LF TB 38.63 13/77 99.6
29 Peavy, Jake SP SD 41.51 13/78 99.0
30 Thome, Jim 1B PHI Elbow: 15-day DL. Might being rehab assignment in early August 42.06 12/142 93.0
31 Lidge, Brad RP HOU 43.09 15/93 98.9
32 Matsui, Hideki LF NYY 43.90 17/79 99.9
33 Edmonds, Jim CF STL 44.66 15/101 99.7
34 Nathan, Joe RP MIN 45.26 14/102 98.6
35 Perez, Oliver SP PIT Toe: 15-day DL. Might return in August 47.25 9/147 91.7
36 Young, Michael SS TEX 49.61 19/85 99.9
37 Rodriguez, Francisco RP ANA 50.05 15/126 98.8
38 Delgado, Carlos 1B FLA Elbow: Questionable for Aug. 2-4 at St. Louis 51.02 20/80 99.9
39 Beltre, Adrian 3B SEA 52.14 13/164 97.3
40 Blalock, Hank 3B TEX 52.91 23/88 99.9
41 Giles, Brian RF SD 56.63 17/111 99.7
42 Garciaparra, Nomar SS CHC Groin: 60-day DL. On Double-A rehab assignment. Questionable for Aug. 5-8 series at N.Y. Mets 58.06 18/137 88.6
43 Lee, Carlos LF MIL 58.23 17/100 99.9
44 Halladay, Roy SP TOR Leg: 15-day DL. Questionable for Aug. 7 vs. N.Y. Yankees 59.23 2/111 98.9
45 Damon, Johnny CF BOS 60.82 24/104 99.7
46 Colon, Bartolo SP ANA 63.57 20/124 99.0
47 Clemens, Roger SP HOU Back: Questionable for Aug. 2 start at Arizona 63.66 9/119 99.0
48 Hudson, Tim SP ATL 63.82 17/155 97.6
49 Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC 64.32 22/139 98.9
50 Martinez, Victor J. C CLE 64.95 20/147 99.7

[theclefe]

I wouldn't consider an injury as a bust. Poor performance and fallure to meet expectations is far more detrimental to a team. I would rather know I guy I planned to rely on will be on the DL than having someone in my lineup who is dragging me down with a lack of production.