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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:08 pm

Tavish wrote:Well there is no modern pitcher I would put ahead of Pedro, the injury in 2001 really hurt his legacy though. Assuming he played that year like the years before and after you would be looking at a guy who was the best pitcher in his league for six consecutive seasons. A league that included Clemens and RJ.

I should have had RJ in the list, I would put him right behind Pedro and Clemens with Maddux being the 4th.


Pedro would be #1 in peak, but you would put him #1 career wise? Roger and RJ have so many more innings, Clemens 4,500 to Pedro's 2,300. Pedro had his prime, and likely is in a slight decline mode rest of career, which will drop his era+ some likely. Until Pedro gets another 1,000+ innings, i take Roger and RJ.
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Postby superfly » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:26 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:I should have qualified what I meant by a lot of years. Those 7 consecutive years he was definitely what I would call a superstar. But that's less than half of his 20 year career. Guys like Clemens/Pedro have had very few years as a non-superstar pitcher.


Maddux was a superstar for a lot more years than just 7. In fact, one could make a solid argument that Maddux has consistently been great for longer than either Clemens or Pedro. From 1988 to 2002, he did not have any years with an ERA above 3.57. He has had 10 seasons (of 20+ starts) with an ERA at or under 3.00 (same as Clemens except Clemens despite pitching for 2 less years, Pedro has 6 such years). Maddux only has 2 seasons (of 20+ starts) with an ERA over 4.00 (Clemens has 4 while Pedro has 0). Maddux of course has his vaunted 17 straight seasons with 15 wins record (Clemens' longest streak is 7 and Pedro's longest is just 4). Maddux has never been a power pitching so I will concede or disregard the K argument, whichever way you want to look at it.
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Postby KaiserSoze » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:32 pm

Loveable Losers... you are way off.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:38 pm

superfly wrote:Maddux was a superstar for a lot more years than just 7. In fact, one could make a solid argument that Maddux has consistently been great for longer than either Clemens or Pedro. From 1988 to 2002, he did not have any years with an ERA above 3.57. He has had 10 seasons (of 20+ starts) with an ERA at or under 3.00 (same as Clemens except Clemens despite pitching for 2 less years, Pedro has 6 such years). Maddux only has 2 seasons (of 20+ starts) with an ERA over 4.00 (Clemens has 4 while Pedro has 0). Maddux of course has his vaunted 17 straight seasons with 15 wins record (Clemens' longest streak is 7 and Pedro's longest is just 4).


In all fairness, Maddux has never faced a dh, while Roger always has, pitching in the higher scoring league. Maddux era should be lower. The league era for Maddux was 4.11, to a 4.47 league era for Clemens. Both guys entered this year with a era+ of 141, although Roger's will be better after this year. Roger also has a .667 win %, to Maddux .637, while Maddux had the luxury of 11 years in Atlanta on a division champion.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:32 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
superfly wrote:Maddux was a superstar for a lot more years than just 7. In fact, one could make a solid argument that Maddux has consistently been great for longer than either Clemens or Pedro. From 1988 to 2002, he did not have any years with an ERA above 3.57. He has had 10 seasons (of 20+ starts) with an ERA at or under 3.00 (same as Clemens except Clemens despite pitching for 2 less years, Pedro has 6 such years). Maddux only has 2 seasons (of 20+ starts) with an ERA over 4.00 (Clemens has 4 while Pedro has 0). Maddux of course has his vaunted 17 straight seasons with 15 wins record (Clemens' longest streak is 7 and Pedro's longest is just 4).


In all fairness, Maddux has never faced a dh, while Roger always has, pitching in the higher scoring league. Maddux era should be lower. The league era for Maddux was 4.11, to a 4.47 league era for Clemens. Both guys entered this year with a era+ of 141, although Roger's will be better after this year. Roger also has a .667 win %, to Maddux .637, while Maddux had the luxury of 11 years in Atlanta on a division champion.

Well, its not like Boston and the Yankees were pushovers :-b
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Postby Tavish » Thu Jul 28, 2005 11:05 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Tavish wrote:Well there is no modern pitcher I would put ahead of Pedro, the injury in 2001 really hurt his legacy though. Assuming he played that year like the years before and after you would be looking at a guy who was the best pitcher in his league for six consecutive seasons. A league that included Clemens and RJ.

I should have had RJ in the list, I would put him right behind Pedro and Clemens with Maddux being the 4th.


Pedro would be #1 in peak, but you would put him #1 career wise? Roger and RJ have so many more innings, Clemens 4,500 to Pedro's 2,300. Pedro had his prime, and likely is in a slight decline mode rest of career, which will drop his era+ some likely. Until Pedro gets another 1,000+ innings, i take Roger and RJ.


Its really hard to say career-wise, Pedro is still only 33 years old and likely still has 5-10 years left in his career. He very well might have a decline the during those years but its getting tougher and tougher to expect the backend of any player's career to fall apart as they once did. If we had said the same thing about Clemens and RJ at age 35 then we would have cut off several of the greatest seasons of their career. RJ especially, who is having the equivalent of a Barry Bonds explosion late in his career.

It would take a pretty major hit to Pedro's career for his ERA+ to fall down to the Clemens level. He is never going to pitch as many innings as Clemens did, but he has a good chance of reaching the RJ IP area. Assuming he puts in another 1000 IP his ERA would have to be around 4.35 ( 1.5 runs higher than his career and .5 runs higher than his worst season) to be down to a 141 ERA+. Thats a pretty good margin of error.

Of course this is all moot if he rips his arm off this season and never takes the mound again. We would be in the middle of a Koufax-dilemma only Pedro was miles better than Koufax.
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Postby reznorsboy » Fri Jul 29, 2005 9:15 am

I think Mad Dog is the greatest pitcher of the modern era. ;-D
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Postby looptid » Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:21 pm

Tavish wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:He wasn't a superstar pitcher for very many years but that's not Maddux's claim to fame anyways.

He was in the top 5 for the Cy Young award for 7 consecutive years, including the 4 straight years he won it. If thats not a superstar for very many years then I don't know what is.


Only pitcher in history (so I've been told) to get 300 Wins, 3000 Ks and <1000 walks.


Yes he is, although Fergie Jenkins came pretty close.

Has a pitcher ever been more consistent than this guy? I agrue no. His consecutive seasons w/ at least 15 Ws streak is AMAZING. 2nd best pitcher of this generation (behind Clemens). One of the top 10 of all time. Sure fire future HOFer.


The only modern pitcher I would think of putting ahead of Maddux in terms of consistency is Warren Spahn.
As great (tremendous/oustanding/exceptional) as Maddux has been, he isn't a top 10 pitcher All-Time. He isn't very far from it though. The problem I have calling him a top 10 pitcher is that I would consider him the 3rd greatest pitcher of the Second Live Ball Era (Pedro and Clemens).


I do like to give some weight to peak, as well as a player's career as a whole. Clemens has posted the best career totals, but he hasn't had the peak that Martinez and Maddux have had. Adding up ERA-Plus for two consecutive seasons, the highest totals for each are:

ERA+
94-95 Maddux - 532
99-00 Martinez - 530
97-98 Clemens - 402

Which I guess parrots the disbelief about Maddux not being considered a superstar.
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Postby Tavish » Fri Jul 29, 2005 6:34 pm

looptid wrote:I do like to give some weight to peak, as well as a player's career as a whole. Clemens has posted the best career totals, but he hasn't had the peak that Martinez and Maddux have had. Adding up ERA-Plus for two consecutive seasons, the highest totals for each are:

ERA+
94-95 Maddux - 532
99-00 Martinez - 530
97-98 Clemens - 402

Which I guess parrots the disbelief about Maddux not being considered a superstar.


And the gap from Pedro to Maddux and then Maddux to Clemens grows even more if you look at three seasons, even more if you look at four seasons. At five, six and seven seasons the gap is enormous.
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Postby superfly » Sun Jul 31, 2005 1:37 am

I stumbled across this amazing stat.

From July 31, 1993 to August 4, 1995, a two-year period, Maddux started 57 games and posted a quality start 56 times. In 36 of those quality starts, Maddux pitched eight innings or more.
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