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General Baseball: Your Take on OPS

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Postby Tavish » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:32 pm

bigh0rt wrote:As a numbers guy, my main beef with OPS from a mathematical perspective is that it benefits those with higher AVGs moreso than those without, and really doesn't compensate for it elsewhere in the equation. It takes batting average twice into the equation, with the extra from SLG and OBP once apiece. I think if we added (OBP -AVG) and (SLG - AVG) to OPS, we'd have a more accurate figure of value. But maybe that's just me. B-)


It benefits those with a higher moreso than those without because players with higher averages tend to be more productive. The only players it really shortchanges are those with high walk totals because SLG% disregards a BBs ability to move runners (which is why OBP should be given a heavier weight).
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:48 am

OPS is ok for a quick easy find. OPS+ at least adjusts for parks. A 900 ops in Colorado is quite a bit different then the same ops playing in SD.

The problem with ops is it's weighted 50/50, where in reality oba carries more weight. A (1.5 * OBA) + SLG gets you closer.
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Postby Ron Santo » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:53 am

OPS is a good tool, but the OBPx3 + Slugging (can't recall the name of the formula, I first ran across it in Moneyball) seems to be the best indicator.
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Postby DK » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:00 am

Ron Santo wrote:OPS is a good tool, but the OBPx3 + Slugging (can't recall the name of the formula, I first ran across it in Moneyball) seems to be the best indicator.


There's no real name for it... It's just the variation DePodesta created to figure out run production.

Let's give it a name... Super OPS!
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:04 am

OBA * 3 seems a bit extreme.
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Postby DK » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:10 am

HOOTIE wrote:OBA * 3 seems a bit extreme.


I agree. It was used in Moneyball for a page or two... I've never really tried it but I'll trust DeP's judgement on that one. Maybe it really does make sense... Who knows.
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:14 am

DK wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:OBA * 3 seems a bit extreme.


I agree. It was used in Moneyball for a page or two... I've never really tried it but I'll trust DeP's judgement on that one. Maybe it really does make sense... Who knows.


Hey DK, good to see you again. ;-)
Been a long time.
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Postby mamorris » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:46 am

HOOTIE wrote:OBA * 3 seems a bit extreme.


I don't know for sure, but I think the idea behind it has something to do with the fact that teams with a high OBP will make pitchers throw more pitchers per inning, thus you tire the pitchers out quicker.
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Postby nuggets » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:58 am

One problem people should realize about OPS is that OBP is a rate based on PAs, and SLG% is a rate based on ABs. Compare that to runs created where both are based on PAs, since it takes total bases and multiplies them by times on base, thus putting them both on the same scale, and solving the main problem with OPS.

Anyone know much about XR? I have heard it is the purist way to evaluate.
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