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Why Are Closers So Valuable?

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Postby The Jury » Sun Jul 24, 2005 9:20 pm

Closers can signifcantly help you in ERA, WHIP, and SV. Eric Gagne lead the roto world in improving a team's ERA a couple year's ago. I'm trying to find the thread - it's somewhere in the Cafe.
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 9:27 pm

The price being paid for to get Gagne on draft day was usually equilvalent to players like Tex, Chavez, Cabrera, Rolen, etc. Injuries aside, who helps your team out more, Gagne or M. Cabrera...or Tex? Bad eough to pay top dollar for a quality SP, but to pay for a 1 category closer is just asking to lose imo. Sometimes it works. Just like sometimes drafting a pitching first methodolgy will work. But the odds are much longer.
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Postby The Jury » Sun Jul 24, 2005 9:46 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:The price being paid for to get Gagne on draft day was usually equilvalent to players like Tex, Chavez, Cabrera, Rolen, etc. Injuries aside, who helps your team out more, Gagne or M. Cabrera...or Tex? Bad eough to pay top dollar for a quality SP, but to pay for a 1 category closer is just asking to lose imo. Sometimes it works. Just like sometimes drafting a pitching first methodolgy will work. But the odds are much longer.


They're not just one category though. Good enough relievers can improve your team ERA and WHIP over the season more than a lot of starters.
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:16 pm

They post 70-80 IPs a year on avg...a starter gets you 200-225. A 2.5 ERA and 1.0 WHIP from a good closer over 75 IPs is not having an appreicable effect on your ratios. They will help, but a 4 category hitter like MCab is going to help you a whole lot more. Or a 4 category SP. You are not comparing Mo for ex. to some 5th fantasy starter. Mo costs you a round 3 pick, meaning you compare him to a Pedro for instance. Who helps you more? The answer is sort of obvious. The price you pay for a top of the line closer is a top of the line hitter or SP. That is rarely a good trade-off.
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Postby The Jury » Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:23 pm

TheYanks04 wrote:They post 70-80 IPs a year on avg...a starter gets you 200-225. A 2.5 ERA and 1.0 WHIP from a good closer over 75 IPs is not having an appreicable effect on your ratios. They will help, but a 4 category hitter like MCab is going to help you a whole lot more. Or a 4 category SP. You are not comparing Mo for ex. to some 5th fantasy starter. Mo costs you a round 3 pick, meaning you compare him to a Pedro for instance. Who helps you more? The answer is sort of obvious. The price you pay for a top of the line closer is a top of the line hitter or SP. That is rarely a good trade-off.


I wouldn't compare a closer to a hitter because I agree that the stud hitter will be more effective than any closer. However, in comparing closers to starters, there has been research/calculations done by someone(s) in the Cafe revealing that the pitchers who made the most improvements to a fantasy team's pitching staff over a designated number of innings (a roto season) was a mixture of RP and SP.

As stated, I am trying to find this article to remove your doubt. For now, you'll just have to accept it.

EDIT: Here it is http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=39496&highlight=era+improvement
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
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Postby thehat » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:09 pm

Jury...Gagne's 2003 campaign was probably the best any closer as ever had from a fantasy standpoint. It's therefore completely out of step with general closer numbers.

I'm no saying there's anything wrong with closers. Everyone needs saves, and a dominant closer can help some in peripheral categories.

Nevertheless, the difference between a great closer and a middle of the pack type is not nearly enough to justify drafting them as early as they so frequently are.
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Postby The Jury » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:17 pm

thehat wrote:Jury...Gagne's 2003 campaign was probably the best any closer as ever had from a fantasy standpoint. It's therefore completely out of step with general closer numbers.

I'm no saying there's anything wrong with closers. Everyone needs saves, and a dominant closer can help some in peripheral categories.

Nevertheless, the difference between a great closer and a middle of the pack type is not nearly enough to justify drafting them as early as they so frequently are.


I'm not referring only to Gagne; he just leads the RP group. If you'll notice, the best contributors were, order:

Stud SPs
Stud RPs
Tier 2 SPs

Gagne was not overly "out of step with general closer numbers," as he, Smoltz, Wagner, Rivera, and Foulke (representing the elite closers of 2003) were bunched together under the elite handful of SPs, and above the 2nd tier of SPs.
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
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Postby FrogStamp » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:35 pm

So is it safe to say that a closer is more valuable in a Roto league compared to a head-to-head league because a closer's numbers in a Roto league are cumulative for the whole year (ERA and WHIP), whereas in a head-to-head they start fresh every week?

I guess the relative value of a closer compared to other positions is still up for debate, as shown by this thread!
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Postby Laean » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:03 am

The Jury wrote:
TheYanks04 wrote:They post 70-80 IPs a year on avg...a starter gets you 200-225. A 2.5 ERA and 1.0 WHIP from a good closer over 75 IPs is not having an appreicable effect on your ratios. They will help, but a 4 category hitter like MCab is going to help you a whole lot more. Or a 4 category SP. You are not comparing Mo for ex. to some 5th fantasy starter. Mo costs you a round 3 pick, meaning you compare him to a Pedro for instance. Who helps you more? The answer is sort of obvious. The price you pay for a top of the line closer is a top of the line hitter or SP. That is rarely a good trade-off.


I wouldn't compare a closer to a hitter because I agree that the stud hitter will be more effective than any closer. However, in comparing closers to starters, there has been research/calculations done by someone(s) in the Cafe revealing that the pitchers who made the most improvements to a fantasy team's pitching staff over a designated number of innings (a roto season) was a mixture of RP and SP.

As stated, I am trying to find this article to remove your doubt. For now, you'll just have to accept it.

EDIT: Here it is http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=39496&highlight=era+improvement


i think i read that on SI.com as well. but i still have a hard time believing it. as for yanks, i agree with most of what you said, but i haven't been in any leagues where mo cost a 3rd round pick. that seems like a near-dumb move to make to me.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:49 am

Its a dumb move if you do not believe in the wisdom of top line closers...but in most leagues the top closers start to fall round 3 or 4...maybe 5. There are always 1 or 2 guys who like closers and then the herd follows and starts a run soon after. Just look at the mid-season list/draft here among so-called experts:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/player_rankings.php

Gagne at 30 overall (Mid round 3)
FRod 49 (start of round 5)
Lidge 51
Mo 52
C. Cordero 57
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