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Has dumb luck been a bigger fantasy factor this year?

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Postby zhutou » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:53 pm

ANYONE who says they predicted derrek to have the season that he's having right now is spewing BS. no way could anyone have predicted his avg to be 100 points higher than his norm.
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Postby waterproof » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:10 pm

zhutou wrote:ANYONE who says they predicted derrek to have the season that he's having right now is spewing BS. no way could anyone have predicted his avg to be 100 points higher than his norm.


Who said this? 100 pts. is kinda specific... breakout year isn't

I drafted Lee along with Rolen and Nomar :,-(
Ensberg was a WW pick, along with B Clark and Morris (both preseason), Weeks, Lackey, and Crosby (he was dropped after his early injury)

Holding steady in 2nd in a 12 team league :-]
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Postby davus » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:29 pm

dumb luck is ALWAYS a factor in fantasy sports. Sometimes it works out in your favor, sometimes it doesn't.

Last year Beltre went from perennial waiver wire fodder to MVP out of nowhere. Some lucky bastage got him and good for him. I don't think this year is that much different...but I do think that this year has had some guys blast into the stratosphere a lot higher than typical.

Lee, Roberts, Carpenter, Willis...they were more SUPER breakouts than just your normal breakout so it does have more of an effect than typical, I think...but there are breakout guys every year.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:32 pm

stevelabny wrote:luck is the w(h)ine of the loser.

I have Carlos Beltran this year. WAAAAH
Oh wait, I also have D Lee and Ensberg. OOOOO

Last year before the draft "D Lee in Wrigley? With THAT lineup? I'm gonna get him" Someone knew I wanted D Lee, bid all of his remaining money to get him (would have left him with TWELVE one dollar players) ... I tried to stick the guy with Lee and kill his team, but someone else bailed him out. Lee didnt have the year I expected.
This year all the nimrods kept saying the Cubs lineup suffers without Sosa and Alou. I see Burnitz as an Alou replacement, Ramirez as now 100% dependable, Nomar and Patterson (um...) and say "i HAVE to get d lee this year"
I paid $24 to get him, and my league mates told me I overpaid to make up for not getting him last year.
Did I see THIS coming? no. Did I see a career year coming? Absolutely.

Ensberg went UNDRAFTED. He was on my list as guys to pick up at the end of the draft... and I admit, I just outright forgot about him in the reserve rounds. As soon as I looked over the league when I got home I said "Ensberg is the ONE guy who shouldve been drafted and wasn't. I am a moron. I will cut someone before the season even starts (which I NEVER do) and pick this guy up before someone else does." Bingo.

I sat with Ensberg through a bad first month, I sat with Zito too.
I sat with Hafner, I continue to sit all year with Belran. I've had Aaron Boone and John Buck on my team all year. One by one, these guys turn it around. When Beltran finally gets hot, I will win this league running away.

Every year I hear people complain about injuries.
Beltran has had a bum leg, I just missed a week from dizzy Hafner, I've taken a few Zeros for a week from other minor injuries.
But after Cameron, Benson and Piniero came back from their season opening injuries, I've had ZERO trips to the DL.

ZERO. Which is a record even for me. And I always avoid big injuries to my team. Luck? Not if you do it every year.

I have wins far below the expected number for my other pitching stats. Do I cry bad luck? Well sure, sometimes, but I don't cry "bad luck" and let it affect the rest of my managing.

Luck is what happens when your league mates don't understand what the heck is going on.

Luck is knowing when to patiently wait for a guy to break out of a slump, and when to cut your losses and move on.

Luck is drafting well enough on draft day, so that for every Beltran-bust you have a DLee-blast.

Luck is buying low and selling high OR sitting around with the same team you drafted while everyone else is stupid.

Luck is just one more obstacle on the road to victory.


Could not have said it better myself. Luck is a factor, not the reason, a team wins or loses.

For the most part, every player on the "bust" list in the original post had one or more questions marks - be it age, injury, injuries in the recent past, new team, new league or, for Helton, whether they would have any protection. So, is it any great surprise that RJ is actually pitching like a 42 y/o, that Beltre is having trouble adjusting to a new league/pitcher's ballpark, that Gagne is hurt (was injured in ST) and so on?

Conversely, almost every player on the "break-out" list had showed some level of skill in the past such that their performance cannot be said to come from nowhere. Roberts showed flashes of power with 50 2B, D.Lee was predicted to explode in Wrigley in 2004, Ensberg hit 24 HR in 400 AB in 2003, etc.

Now, I agree that the level of bust or break-out might be extreme in some cases, but as I said, luck is still a factor.

However, when you take on too much risk in the early rounds, or fail to gamble on skills in the latter rounds, don't go crying "luck" when your that early round choice, with several question marks, goes flat or your leaguemate takes a flyer on a guy with 24 HR in 400 AB in a hitter's ballpark as recently as 2003 while you don't. Knowing when to take on risk and when not to is just as much a fantasy skill as any other.
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Postby Bukoski77 » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:45 am

This thread is reminding me of the great CLUTCH debates.

Luck exists but it doesn't exist.
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Postby pibb55 » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:14 am

There is a lot of luck involved with fantasy, but it takes more than luck to win the league. If your in any competetive type league at all then you know it takes managerial skills to win the league. You may have been lucky enough to draft Lee, Roberts, Carpenter, etc. but did you have the skill to not sell high after scorching starts??? Did you buy low on guys like Prior, Harden, Vmart, Sheets, etc during their slumps or injuries???


The point I'm trying to get across is that the luck of drafting is long gone, you either got lucky or did alright or you busted big time... but over the course of a season your draft really doesnt matter in the end. Over the course of 6 months, smart manager moves or stupid moves are going to determine the fate of your team. This will always be true unless your in a league that doesn't trade, make moves, etc AKA an inactive league. ;-D
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Postby HOOTIE » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:30 am

Bukoski77 wrote:This thread is reminding me of the great CLUTCH debates.

Luck exists but it doesn't exist.


Man, the guys who drafted DLee certaintly were clutch on draft day. ;-)

If luck was the factor, every owner would win about the same as everyone else, since the luck would spread around, (at least odds wise). But most leagues, i bet the same 33% are the frontrunners every year. Are they just real lucky? I think luck is a lame excuse for a persons wrong calls.
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Postby proninja » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:42 am

In one league, luck doesn't exist and I'm a very skilled player. I drafted in the late rounds:

Roberts
Inge
Morris
Burrell
Lugo


In another league, I'm just very, very unlucky - my first four rounds went

Bonds (drafted very early, 7x7, extra hitting cats are obp and k's)
Beltre
Thome
Wood
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:21 am

There is DEFINITELY a good deal of luck on draft day. Homework can do a lot for you but who would have thought that D. Lee would be a better pick than T. Helton?

But a fantasy season is NOT all about the draft. This is my first year in FBB (and fantasy sports in general). I've learned a TON over the course of the year thanks to the Cafe. My first team I drafted this year was not all that good. I had the snake pick in a 12 team league and had the following draft: RJ, Crawford, Blalock, Huff, Peavy, Wagner, V. Wells, Figgins, Kendall, Ordonez, L. Walker, BJ Ryan, G. Jenkins, Gordon, Rincon, Shields, K. Greene, G. Aquino, Lieberthal, V. Zambrano, S. Kazmir. THAT is a bad, bad, rookie draft.

I'm currently in a tight battle for 2nd place. I'm killing almost everyone in the saves category due to being on the ball and picking up almost every single closer that got promoted. I've dealt away B.J. Ryan, D. Hermanson (w/ Mench), D. Turnbow, and T. Walker to get Beltran, Ichiro, Berkman and P. Feliz respectively and STILL have a pretty solid stable of closers. I stayed on the ball and snatched up Barmes and rode that train...snatched up T. Martinez and got 6 hr's out of him. Got some great spot starts from fa pitchers. Snatched up J. Lugo, G. Maddux and J. Schmidt as FA's before anyone else noticed them sitting there (J. Schmidt was beyond a shocker). Not to mention the tons of little trades I've made to bring the team into better shape and a few HUGE trades that gave up some accumulated value to make the team more solid.

From that junk of a draft, here's my current team:
C: AJ Pierzynski/B. Inge
1B: Pujols
2B: Figgins
3B: Huff/Hillenbrand
SS: Lugo/Feliz
OF: V. Wells
OF: M. Ordonez
OF: Ichiro
Util: Berkman

SP: Peavy
SP: Johnson
RP: Wagner
RP: T. Jones
P: Farnsworth
P: Reitsma
P: Urbina
BN: Schmidt
BN: Od. Perez
DL: Ol. Perez

If I'd relied on 'luck' in this league...with that draft...I'd probably be in dead last place. So sure...having a lucky draft can be HUGE. I won't lie to you...if I'd decided to draft D. Lee at 1B instead of A. Huff I'd be in 1st place by FAR at this point. And it was a close call that I debated heavily. Lee was there but I liked the position eligibility of Huff. It could have gone either way. So there IS some luck. But to say there's more luck than normal or that luck is the majority of the game is ignoring what good research and constant vigilance can do for a team.
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Postby garf112 » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:55 am

I think everyone will admit that luck has at least something to do with winning a fantasy baseball league. The idea is to maximize your skill and minimize the luck. How do you do that? Don't take extraordinary risks on players in the first three rounds. Look at a player's three year trend and not his last year's stats. All the other things you have been told to do.

In my keeper league, I do not have any players on either list. I am in first place. My idea is you pick the steady players and add a couple of break out types in the late round. Drafted Barmes and Eaton late. But also used the waiver wire to strengthen my team. And a couple of trades have filled in my weaknesses.

There is luck involved, but not as much as everyone is saying. 51% is more than I would think. Considering I am in 1st, 1st and 2nd. There must be some sort of skill involved. Especially since I do not have many of the same players on any of these teams.
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