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Has dumb luck been a bigger fantasy factor this year?

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Postby wrveres » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:34 am

Luck is for Fantasy Football :-t

I am right there in the money in 6 out of 7 teams, and luck has nothing to do with it. I don't own Lee in any of them. I don't own Roberts.

I do own Cordero luckily on every team. ;-7


Luck ... :-t
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Postby bd3521 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:56 am

One of my h2hs.
3 of first 4 round picks: Johan (better than average but not 1st round worthy), Bonds, and Dotel. :-o
Ranked #1 of #10.
I guess there is some skill involved.
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Postby SCARPARIELLI » Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:27 am

I'm sorry, does that say you picked DOTEL in the top 4 rounds?
Dude....
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Postby LooseCannon » Sun Jul 24, 2005 9:58 am

SCARPARIELLI wrote:I'm sorry, does that say you picked DOTEL in the top 4 rounds?
Dude....


Yeah that's crazy.........BTW I think that luck plays a big factor in Fantasy Sports.....50%. Seriously when you sold high on players like Burrell earlier in the season....you didn't really know he was going to slow down you just assumed that he would. You guessed he would..Although a lot of Fantasy is skill don't say that there is no luck involved in FB....
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Postby RAmst23 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:20 am

I'm not sure luck is playing a bigger part this year than in year's past. Yes, Roberts and DLee are hitting well out of no where, but that happens. There will be a couple players each year that hit well for no apparent reason, meaning their career projections did not predict their performance. However, out of all the players you listed, many were on drafter's radar screens.

Ensberg, Carpenter, Halladay, Morris, Myers, and Burrell were all thought to have good seasons this year. These were guys that could be drafted lower and had great potential. Also, some of the busts weren't thought of as sure-fire picks either. Schilling, Beltre, Thome (Injury concerns, granted I fell for him), Gagne, Garciaparra, Perez, Benitez, and Boone.

I think the biggest degree of luck this year has come in picking those closers which have actually gotten saves.
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Postby gtabaplayr1 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 11:25 am

I don't think its playing a bigger part than it has in other years. Maybe I'm bias since im current first in my two main leagues. No DLee or Roberts in either, only Utley and Myers. Fantasy Football definitely has more luck involved.
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Postby Dice » Sun Jul 24, 2005 12:23 pm

If it's luck then why do the same guys keep winning every year?

In my longest running league, it was the same top four for four years with little exception. We did it in different ways, but we always came out on top.

In the keeper league I'm in the same guy won four years in a row or something. I'm ahead of him this year but his reign certainly wasn't just because of luck.

Some people think the huge turnover in closers will result in luck being a big factor, but every closer change is simply a chance for the league members who are best plugged into the information stream to grab free value. The guy lucky enough to get say Derrick Turnbow probably also picked up Ryan Wagner, Brandon Lyon, or other closers who failed to hold the job. They create chances for themselves. The people not playing attention will just see the Turnbow move and call the guy lucky.
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Postby stevelabny » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:14 pm

luck is the w(h)ine of the loser.

I have Carlos Beltran this year. WAAAAH
Oh wait, I also have D Lee and Ensberg. OOOOO

Last year before the draft "D Lee in Wrigley? With THAT lineup? I'm gonna get him" Someone knew I wanted D Lee, bid all of his remaining money to get him (would have left him with TWELVE one dollar players) ... I tried to stick the guy with Lee and kill his team, but someone else bailed him out. Lee didnt have the year I expected.
This year all the nimrods kept saying the Cubs lineup suffers without Sosa and Alou. I see Burnitz as an Alou replacement, Ramirez as now 100% dependable, Nomar and Patterson (um...) and say "i HAVE to get d lee this year"
I paid $24 to get him, and my league mates told me I overpaid to make up for not getting him last year.
Did I see THIS coming? no. Did I see a career year coming? Absolutely.

Ensberg went UNDRAFTED. He was on my list as guys to pick up at the end of the draft... and I admit, I just outright forgot about him in the reserve rounds. As soon as I looked over the league when I got home I said "Ensberg is the ONE guy who shouldve been drafted and wasn't. I am a moron. I will cut someone before the season even starts (which I NEVER do) and pick this guy up before someone else does." Bingo.

I sat with Ensberg through a bad first month, I sat with Zito too.
I sat with Hafner, I continue to sit all year with Belran. I've had Aaron Boone and John Buck on my team all year. One by one, these guys turn it around. When Beltran finally gets hot, I will win this league running away.

Every year I hear people complain about injuries.
Beltran has had a bum leg, I just missed a week from dizzy Hafner, I've taken a few Zeros for a week from other minor injuries.
But after Cameron, Benson and Piniero came back from their season opening injuries, I've had ZERO trips to the DL.

ZERO. Which is a record even for me. And I always avoid big injuries to my team. Luck? Not if you do it every year.

I have wins far below the expected number for my other pitching stats. Do I cry bad luck? Well sure, sometimes, but I don't cry "bad luck" and let it affect the rest of my managing.

Luck is what happens when your league mates don't understand what the heck is going on.

Luck is knowing when to patiently wait for a guy to break out of a slump, and when to cut your losses and move on.

Luck is drafting well enough on draft day, so that for every Beltran-bust you have a DLee-blast.

Luck is buying low and selling high OR sitting around with the same team you drafted while everyone else is stupid.

Luck is just one more obstacle on the road to victory.
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Postby bd3521 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:20 pm

SCARPARIELLI wrote:I'm sorry, does that say you picked DOTEL in the top 4 rounds?
Dude....

Closers fly off the board when a save = a win (for 10pts). 6 of the top 10 pitchers in this league are closers. Most people in this league start piling up on closers in the second round.
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Postby waterproof » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:25 pm

stevelabny wrote:Luck is just one more obstacle on the road to victory.


Great post ;-D
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