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Has dumb luck been a bigger fantasy factor this year?

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Has dumb luck been a bigger fantasy factor this year?

Postby duckbillgates » Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:36 pm

I talked a little trash and started a mini-argument with the guy who is leading our league, telling him his luck will run out, which got the usual "It's skill, not luck" response.
But it got me thinking, thus far, this year has really been a lot about luck in a lot of leagues. The manager who did all his homework, drafted well, watched waivers, etc., is probably trailing the guy who fell into the most "breakouts."

• EARLY-ROUND BUSTS
(Guys that should have gone in the first 10 or so rounds of draft that haven't come close to expected dividends)
Carlos Beltran (what an unexpected nightmare)
Randy Johnson (remember that 30-win talk?)
Todd Helton
Scott Rolen
Jason Schmidt
Curt Schilling (some gambled he would only miss a month)
Adrian Beltre
Jim Thome
Eric Gagne
Juan Pierre
Nomar Garciaparra
Aubrey Huff
Corey Patterson
Keith Foulke
Oliver Perez
Barry Bonds
Armando Benitez
Sammy Sosa
Bret Boone
Octavio Dotel

• MONSTER BREAKOUTS
(Solid players, but their numbers vs. their projections are just absurd.)
Derrek Lee (Anybody peg him as an MVP candidate preseason? Exactly.)
Brian Roberts (Topped his career home run numbers by the break)
Morgan Ensberg
Chris Carpenter
Roy Halladay (expected a comeback, but not all the way)
Chad Cordero (especially after what happened to all the top closers)
Dontrelle Willis
Jon Garland
Mark Buehrle
Matt Morris
Brett Myers
Eddie Guardado (even though the Mariners are winning less than expected)
Torii Hunter
Pat Burrell
Livan Hernandez

I don't recall any season that has had such a fluxuation between expected and actual production.
And most (though certainly not all) of the guys on that breakout list weren't guys expected to break out big, like Harden Teixiera, etc.
The leader in the league I mentioned has Lee, Roberts, Ensberg, Carpenter and Halladay. He's either a fortune teller or he has had unbelievable luck.
Thoughts on this, anyone?
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Postby BobbyRoberto » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:01 pm

I agree. It's crazy this year. The guy in 1st in my league has gotten some serious "breakout" peformances from a number of guys:

2B-Brian Roberts (.293/.396/.551)
SS-Michael Young (.324/.367/.518)
LF-Pat Burrell (.289/.383/.532)
SP-John Smoltz (2.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
SP-Chris Carpenter (2.26 ERA, 1.03 WHIP)
RP-Chad Cordero (29 SVS, 1.05 ERA, 0.98 WHIP)

Now, I know these players aren't crazy draft picks. They're solid players but they are all off-the-charts good this year. No one saw Brian Robert's amazing season coming. Michael Young has amped up the power this year. Burrell was coming off a down year. Smoltz is a good pitcher but who thought he'd pitch as well as he has for as long as he has, same with Carpenter. And Cordero was one of his later picks at closer.
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Postby TheYanks04 » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:08 pm

I think luck has played the most important role it ever has in fantasy this year. Most of the top SPs before the season started have been busts or underperformers. A few top hitters too and we have giys coming out of nowhere like Roberts and solid players like D. Lee all of a sudden adding 100 points to his avg and doubling his power. Go figure. If you say you knew Roberts would turn into Soriano and that D. Lee would turn into Bonds, you are lieing.
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Postby Simulacrum » Sat Jul 23, 2005 8:04 pm

I absolutely agree. One guy in my league I swear has all the luck in the world. This guy seemed to wind up with all the breakout players- D. Lee, Clint Barmes, Burrell, and Morgan Ensberg. His offense is unbelievable.

Meanwhile I've accumulated Pujols, A-Rod and Beltran and his squad of luck-boys is still even with me in the offense cats.
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Postby d18Mike » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:11 pm

Luck is King in Fantasy baseball EVERY year.

Unless you are in first and have a strong tendency toward self-delusion. Then, of course, its 100% skill.

I'd say Luck is at least 51% of the success equation.
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Postby -Slap- » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:32 pm

Luck is the residue of design

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Postby Amazinz » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:34 pm

On the contrary, I'd say that luck is the crutch of the loser. This isn't Fantasy Football. :-D

Sure luck plays a part (no more so than research and experience) and maybe this year is "luckier" than most but it's not insurmountable. I play in 5 leagues and I am in a competitive position in four of them. The fifth was a keeper team that I adopted. I don't own Derrek Lee or Brian Roberts and I even own Beltran in one of the leagues. I also own Ensberg but I don't consider that luck since I had to make a tough decision (at the time) on who to drop when I lifted him off the WW. So I didn't really hit the jackpot on any of the "lucky" players (I did last year) but if I lose in these leagues it won't be because I got unlucky. We all knew that Lee, Roberts, Barmes, were "special" pretty early on so it's not like we didn't have plenty of time to adapt our rosters. Also those people who did have guys like Roberts and Lee had to make tough "sell high" decisions earlier in the season.
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:19 am

I don't believe in luck in fantasy bb. You adjust. If you didn't draft DLee, you go get him. If your stud gets hurt, you better have a nice replacement. Luck is a excuse for not doing a better job. I don't have DLee on any of my teams. It's my fault for not going after hom sooner, a guy in his peak power years in Wrigley. If for whatever reason you come up short, it's your fault for not doing better. Accept you didn't do as well as expected, and move on.
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Postby colt4523 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:19 am

I think luck has more to do with h2h leagues (especially points leagues) then plain roto. You never no what you will get from a player week to week but over the course of the entire season you usually can predict a players outcome. The one roto league I am in I have been in first most of the season. I went into the draft aiming to have a completely balanced team and ended up with one. I do have Roberts in that league but I also have helton and huff.
As far as my h2h points leagues, I really do not have any players that are playing over their heads and my record shows it. It is hard to predict when a player is going to go off in one week (see Giambi and Tino) or is going to get injured. Circumstances like that can cause you to lose week to week.

On a side note, has there ever been a player to produce so far over his average numbers like Lee is doing this year. How can you hit 100 points above your usual average? 8-o
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Postby bd3521 » Sun Jul 24, 2005 2:32 am

colt4523 wrote:I think luck has more to do with h2h leagues (especially points leagues) then plain roto. You never no what you will get from a player week to week but over the course of the entire season you usually can predict a players outcome. The one roto league I am in I have been in first most of the season. I went into the draft aiming to have a completely balanced team and ended up with one. I do have Roberts in that league but I also have helton and huff.
As far as my h2h points leagues, I really do not have any players that are playing over their heads and my record shows it. It is hard to predict when a player is going to go off in one week (see Giambi and Tino) or is going to get injured. Circumstances like that can cause you to lose week to week.

On a side note, has there ever been a player to produce so far over his average numbers like Lee is doing this year. How can you hit 100 points above your usual average? 8-o


True there. I guy in my league has 400 more fpts in our h2h league than me but hes 8-8 and I'm 10-4
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